Dynasty Buy/Sell/Hold: NFC South

We are nearing the crescendo of the NFL off-season. As such, the window for making final roster adjustments is drawing to a close, with the obtainment of actionable game information just over the horizon in September. Put another way, it would not be unreasonable to assert player values are less likely to fluctuate over the next couple of months (pending injuries) as compared to when the regular season is in full force.

In that spirit, I’ve selected players to buy, sell and hold for all 32 NFL teams. This miniseries will be broken down by division, with 12 players highlighted per article and 96 overall. In a 12-team league with 20 roster spots (similar to the DLF ADP), that accounts for 40% of the players!

Before we dive in, a few notes and disclaimers:

• Player values were obtained from the combination of the most current ADP (pending the lead time necessary for authorship), and the DLF top-250 rankings;
• The league paradigm is assumed to be PPR and 1QB (players in superflex and/or 2QB leagues would likely have some divergence from those I’ve selected);
• Opinions on players are my own and do not represent all of DLF; and finally,
• Exact player values are always going to be dependent on individual leagues and owners, and may not be consistent with the assertions provided herein.

With that said, let’s continue with the NFC South! Players will be profiled individually, with a tabulated summary of all 12 provided at the article’s conclusion.

Atlanta Falcons

Buy: Desmond Ridder, QB (ADP = 232.0, Rank = 206.9)

While the Falcons offense has some high-end dynasty talent in Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts, none represent great “buy” candidates at cost. As such I went with Ridder, who’s checking in as the dynasty QB32 and a final round selection. While he didn’t show particularly well in limited action as a rookie, there are reasons for optimism.

First, he will have received all of the critical starters’ reps in the off-season, as there’s no quarterback controversy in Atlanta. Next, he should have the returning Pitts at his disposal, along with the addition of a pass-catching running back in Robinson. This is a massive upgrade over the ancillary pass catchers at the conclusion of the 2022 season, which included MyCole Pruitt, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Damiere Byrd.

Lastly, and noting that he didn’t show it last year, Ridder is a plus athlete who compiled over 2,000 rushing yards in college. With his talented teammates hopefully keeping opposing defenses honest, it’s possible the field will open up for Ridder to take off. As we all know, running quarterbacks represent something of a cheat code in fantasy football, giving Ridder a potentially higher ceiling than otherwise thought.

Sell: Kyle Pitts, TE (ADP = 40.2, Rank = 36.1)

Interestingly, the Falcons didn’t have an obvious “sell” candidate, either. I selected Pitts not because he’s an egregious fade at cost, but rather because he’s not a surefire fantasy stud despite being drafted in a range littered with them. This provides owners with a chance to get a comparable player, or a two-for-one such as the below example, where per the DLF Trade Analyzer Pitts could yield a combination of Pat Freiermuth and Terry McLaurin (or others listed below).

The additional risk is that during Pitts’ missed time, Ridder has been able to forge a connection with fellow Class of 2022 member London. In Ridder’s four starts, London was the leading receiver in three of them, compiling an aggregate line of 25-333-0. This represented 34.2% of Ridder’s completions and 47.0% of his passing yards – as noted above, it’s not like there was anyone else to throw to. But the fact is the pair got live reps together, which will have continued into the off-season while Pitts was on the shelf up until training camp. On a run-first offense, being the second target could render Pitts a fantasy also-ran.

Hold: Tyler Allgeier, RB (ADP = 147.0, Rank = 147.4)

Allgeier’s fine rookie season was submarined by the selection of Robinson in the first round. Put bluntly, there is no reasonable scenario where if the rookie stays healthy, Allgeier even approaches his 2022 workload. Still, dynasty owners can’t ignore what Allgeier was able to do last season.

All told Allgeier compiled almost 1,200 total yards while averaging nearly 5.0 YPC and accumulating yards after contact at an above-average level. He didn’t do much in the passing game, but was notably efficient with his 17 targets, only failing to corral one and checking in with 8.7 YPR. This is all to say that, quite simply, the young man is a talented football player, and those are the types of guys we dynasty owners like to roster. Still only 23, the worst case is Allgeier will get a second contract while he still has tread on his tires, and the best case is he’s arguably the most valuable handcuff in fantasy football. With a 13th-round startup draft value, he’s a sensible hold.

Carolina Panthers

Buy: Jonathan Mingo, WR (ADP = 116.8, Rank = 124.1)

In a draft class littered with mighty mites, Mingo stands alone as a size-speed freak (96th percentile speed score) with great explosion metrics. He also received good (if not great) early second-round draft capital, despite a lack of collegiate production. Given the muddled nature of the Panthers’ depth chart, there are rookie-year targets for the taking.

While there will undoubtedly be growing pains, Carolina will be helmed by the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, quarterback Bryce Young. Continuing, if a defense ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of both yards and points per game allowed doesn’t improve, the offense will be tasked with playing from behind. So while I can understand the arguments against Mingo (low college dominator and breakout age metrics), I’m still a buyer at a value of a WR5 by ADP.

Sell: Adam Thielen, WR (ADP = 197.5, Rank = 166.6)

Thielen’s story of being a UDFA who didn’t find success until his age-26 season is one of the better ones in recent memory. Unfortunately, the concluding chapters will be written about a player who, in his early 30s, just doesn’t have much left in the tank. His production has declined for the third year in a row, and his on-field role is limited to that of a catch-and-fall artist.

His advanced statistics are even less kind, with an average of 8.1 air yards per completion and 2.2 average yards after the catch. While never showing much strength in the open field, Thielen only broke one tackle on 70 receptions in 2022. With his stature as probably the second or third option on a below-average passing offense, he’s become more of a roster clogger than a fantasy asset. An ADP as the WR85 highlights this lack of value, but it is still tangible value – as you’re not likely to get anything from him this year (if you’re starting him, you’re probably not contending), cashing out for a late future draft pick would be a good move.

Hold: Miles Sanders, RB (ADP = 63.3, Rank = 64.0)

Though the unofficial title of “best pure runner in the NFL” seems to result in a crown being automatically placed on Nick Chubb’s head, Sanders’ to-date production shows he’s pretty good in his own right. Over four seasons with the Eagles, Sanders compiled just over 3,700 yards at an average of 5.0 YPC, never falling below 4.6 YPC in any given season. Just last year he had the fifth-most rushing yards in the league.

Sanders’ primary concern was his utility in the passing game, which last year resulted in career lows for targets, receptions and receiving yards. However, in prior seasons he was significantly more efficient, and apart from 2022, he averages a respectable 8.3 YPR. Getting reunited with Duce Staley should help reinvigorate those numbers, as it was under Staley’s tutelage that Sanders had his best season as a pass catcher. Already the RB15 last year despite being devoid of PPR value, Sanders is a strong hold as the RB19, despite leaving the cozy fantasy confines of Philadelphia.

New Orleans Saints

Buy: Juwan Johnson, TE (ADP = 192.8, Rank = 214.5)

Following a finish as the PPR TE14 in 2022, it’s a bit curious to see Johnson buried in the ADP as the TE26, in the exact same range as Thielen who I chronicled above. It’s true the Saints added Foster Moreau and Jimmy Graham (I guess?) as competition, and also roster the NFL’s preeminent “oFfEnSiVe WeApOn” in Taysom Hill (SpongeBob font for effect). But while noting the massive caveat that preseason isn’t always inherently actionable, it was Johnson leading the charge in the Saints’ victory over the Chiefs.

Preseason Week 1 Takeaways

Derek Carr played 12 snaps & went 6/8 for 70 Yards & 1 TD.

Michael Thomas played all 12 snaps while Juwan Johnson played 9.

We breakdown what this means for #fantasyfootball on the @Razzball Fantasy YouTube channel https://t.co/5FLaVbAKrN

— Razzball NFL (@RazzballNFL) August 15, 2023

Stats aside (Johnson went 2-29-0 on two targets), it was Johnson repping with the first team and getting some decent run. And at least in this brief snapshot and with a small sample size, new quarterback Derek Carr was looking his way 25% of the time. Perhaps the preseason will present a course correction, but Johnson has lost value monthly dating back to May, and now stands as the TE25 per ADP. If he stays healthy, I believe his fantasy value will obliterate his current dynasty valuation.

Sell: Chris Olave, WR (ADP = 12.0, Rank = 13.5)

As a rookie, Olave compiled a fine 72-1,042-4 on his way to a PPR finish as the WR24. In doing so, it’s also fair for him to be graded on a curve, as he was catching passes from the unholy triumvirate of Hill, Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston. But an ADP ranking as the WR8 and tenth overall player still seems a bit high to me.

It’s dynasty football, so we know a player’s age is akin to a scarlet letter, and Olave is only 23 years old. So while I can understand why owners may prefer him to veterans such as Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams, it still doesn’t explain his position amongst his age-appropriate compatriots. Though we assuredly may exercise a “different strokes for different folks” mantra, I’m beyond surprised he’s being valued higher than DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins and DK Metcalf, and don’t understand why he’s going roughly a round ahead of London. To be clear, I’d love to have Olave on my roster and would need a strong proposal to move him, but I’d jump at the chance for any of these players, especially if they come with a sweetener on top.

Hold: Michael Thomas, WR (ADP = 115.8, Rank = 158.4)

I’m saying this with a slight bit of exaggeration, but new fantasy football players and perhaps even elder statesmen may have forgotten just how awesome Thomas was in his prime. In their defense, it’s been a minute!

Over the course of his first four years in the league, Thomas finished as the PPR WR7, WR6, WR6 and WR1. In his 2019 season, the final year of the quartet, he had over 100 points more than the PPR WR2. In terms of total points, Christian McCaffrey was the only skill player to outscore him, and Thomas would have actually finished as the QB6. Even with injuries wiping out nearly the entirety of his last three seasons, he was still putting up a respectable weekly line of 5.6-60.9-0.3, good for a 13.7 PPR point average.

So I get that he’s older (he turned 30 in March) and that we live in a “what have you done for me lately?” type of world, but per all reports, he’s healthy and ready to go this season. For the cost of a WR5, even 70% of his former upside will return value on investment. Given his age, his dynasty value might not increase sizably going into 2024, but this still leaves him as a strong hold if not an outright buy.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Buy: Chris Godwin, WR (ADP = 53.7, Rank = 39.0)

Dating back to the conclusion of last season, Godwin’s value has been on a slow but steady decline, falling nearly two rounds from an ADP of 31.8 to a value of 53.7. My best guess is this is due to quarterback Tom Brady’s retirement, followed by the Bucs failing to satisfactorily address the position. In fact, you’ll find nary an instance of a Tampa Bay signal caller anywhere in the current 1QB ADP, showing that dynasty owners appear to be out on the entirety of the passing game. Still, this would hardly be the first instance of bad quarterbacks supporting fantasy viable pass catchers.

While I understand Godwin is older, he’s not near the age cliff and his value has dropped inorganically, given he finished 2022 as the PPR WR15 despite missing two games. In doing so he eclipsed 100 receptions for the first time in his career, helping mitigate a low aDOT and a lack of scores. Compared to similarly aged veterans in the same ADP range, he hasn’t been able to recoup value since the end of the season, and he’s now coming off the board as the WR27 by ADP. As he’s finished as the WR15 or better each of his last three healthy years, Godwin is a strong buy, especially for contenders.

Sell: Rachaad White, RB (ADP = 67.8, Rank = 82.4)

I wasn’t a huge fan of White to begin with, as he was inefficient both on the ground (3.7 YPC) and through the air (5.8 YPR / 5.0 YPT) as a rookie. He was a bit better in college, but only broke out in his final season when he was already 22 years old. A good (not great) combine and middling draft status perpetuated my lukewarm feelings for him.

It turns out I’m in good company! In looking at the respective ADP changes of running backs who saw improved fortunes (i.e., lack of competition) going back to just before the NFL Draft and through the August ADP, other players at the position elicited a demonstrable response.

Alexander Mattison rose 41 spots, James Conner rose 34, James Cook rose 19, and Tony Pollard rose 27. As for White? He experiences an initial surge of 14 spots, but then ultimately fell back to only an uptick of four ADP spots. Perhaps I’m overanalyzing this, but there is precious little excitement for White’s seemingly plum situation especially given his relative youth, which tells me he’s eventually being selected as the RB21 because meh, why not? If he stumbles out of the gate, it could then be logically inferred his value would fade more quickly than it would for others. While I recognize I’m just a part-time fantasy football analyst and a no-time psychologist, I’m struggling with alternative explanations here – if you can get another ball carrier in this range (Sanders, Aaron Jones, Joe Mixon, Cam Akers or Cook) I’d probably do it.

Hold: Mike Evans, WR (ADP = 85.2, Rank = 72.0)

Soon to be 30 years of age, Evans is barely holding on as a dynasty WR4 by value. And truth be told he’ll be up against it to continue his impressive streak of compiling at least 1,000 yards in each of his nine seasons in the league. But hope remains!

First and perhaps foremost, Evans has produced with bad quarterback play, including Josh McCown and Mike Glennon, as well as with gunslingers like Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Apart from scoring the ball more, Tom Brady’s arrival didn’t actually help Evans’ stats as many likely would have predicted. So whether it’s Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask, we shouldn’t be seeking to bury the veteran just yet.

Notably, Mayfield was able to support two 1,000-yard receivers in 2019 with the Browns and was able to get Jarvis Landry over that threshold twice. And if it’s Trask, though noting we haven’t seen him function as a pro, he supported big play receivers in college which could sync well with Evans’ downfield aDOT. In short, it’s probably not ideal, but much as is the case with Godwin, I think the hate has gone too far.

The tabulated list of the players discussed here is shown below.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.

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