Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: A View from the 1.02
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft, and we are now mere days away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention (and sometimes even before), we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class, and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks or if they will use them at all.
In this twelve-part series, we will use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent Superflex ADP data, we will suggest the player you could soon be adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, we will also include a potential pivot option. In addition, we will include options based on the updated 1QB ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, we will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months if not years, but difference-makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, we will also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
Rookie Selection 1.02
The Pick: CJ Stroud, QB
A high-end four-star prospect out of high school and an early declaration for the NFL Draft, Stroud checks many boxes, which is why he ends up so high in our April ADP. Things weren’t always so apparent with Stroud, as he came into college as a somewhat raw prospect. Playing varsity basketball throughout high school, he didn’t start playing varsity football until his junior season. Once at The University of Ohio State, Stroud was able to sit and learn behind Justin Fields for a year before being thrown to the wolves in his Sophomore season. Stroud proved to be up for the challenge by completing almost 72% of his passes for 4,435 yards and 44 touchdowns, with only six interceptions. His Junior season wasn’t quite as prolific, but Stroud still completed 66.3% of his passes for 3,688 and 41 touchdowns, with six interceptions.
With that kind of stats and coming from a blue-chip program, it’s no surprise that Stroud is expected to be drafted extremely early in the 2023 NFL Draft. Some reports have been coming out recently, casting a little doubt on Stroud, but I think it’s more smoke screens by NFL teams than anything worthwhile. Stroud has had an elite supporting cast his entire college career but has still shown that he has what it takes to be a quality starter in the NFL, with his 11.2 adjusted yards per attempt and 1.4% interception rate. He rarely showed his rushing ability, but he’s proven to be athletic enough when necessary.
Stroud’s ADP has barely budged since DLF started keeping track in February, starting at 1.03 before moving up to 1.02 for March and April. If he were to fall in the NFL Draft, I could see him falling a spot or two in rookie drafts, but I don’t see a scenario where he falls out of the top-five picks.
Trade Value
- 1.02 for Jonathan Taylor
- 1.02 for Chris Olave, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Kadarius Toney
- 1.02 for Tyreek Hill and 2024 first-round pick
Possible Pivots
Bryce Young, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
1QB League Options
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Rookie Selection 2.02
The Pick: Devon Achane, RB
Coming into Texas A&M as a four-star prospect, most scouts saw Achane transitioning to wide receiver because of his elite speed and YAC ability, albeit at a smaller size. Entering college at 185 lbs, it was expected that he wouldn’t be able to put on enough weight to ever be a workhorse back, especially against SEC competition. While he never added any substantive weight, moving only from 185 to 188 in three seasons, he proved those scouts wrong in his Junior season by totaling 232 touches for 1,298 yards and 11 touchdowns. In that season, Achane dominated the rushing game, piling up 196 rushing attempts, with the next closest player having 36. Achane stands out in many of the important metrics that I look at, averaging 7.6 scrimmage yards per attempt, 1.35 PPR points per touch, and a 10.1% big-time run rate.
Achane stands out in most categories, and if he were a larger size, we wouldn’t be talking about him here at 2.02. Unfortunately, we don’t see many NFL players succeed at such a diminutive size, so we are asking for an outlier when projecting forward. While I don’t love drafting outlier profiles early in rookie drafts, Achane’s elite speed and quality receiving ability have me willing around this draft range.
Likely due to his size, dynasty managers started a little lower on Achane, mocking him at 2.05 in February. March saw him rise to 2.02, where he stayed in April mocks—currently being projected to be drafted in the late second or early third of the NFL draft. According to nflmockdraftdatabase.com, I would expect his rookie-draft value to stay right around this range unless teams allow him to fall.
Trade Value
- 2.02 for George Kittle
- 1.04, 2.02. 3.02, and 4.02 for 1.01
- 2.02 and 2024 first-round pick for Travis Etienne
Possible Pivots
Jalin Hyatt, Michael Mayer, Tyjae Spears
1QB League Options
Bryce Young
Rookie Selection 3.02
The Pick: Israel Abanikanda, RB
Coming into college as a three-star prospect, Abanikanda had to prove himself before seeing substantial playing time at Pitt. After seeing only 28 rushing attempts in his true freshman season, he earned more of a role in his second season, leading the team in rushing yardage and touchdowns. That led to his true breakout junior season, where Abanikanda totaled 1,577 scrimmage yards and 21 touchdowns. That season, he had 1.2 PPR points per touch and averaged 143.4 scrimmage yards per game.
In a class of predominantly smaller RBs, Abanikanda checks in at a respectable 5’10” and 216 lbs. Add in his 4.39 40-yard dash from his pro day, and you have a fascinating prospect for rookie drafts. Since that pro-day, Abanikanda has risen almost two rounds in NFL mock draft ADP, according to nflmockdraftdatabase.com.
Abanikanda started off pretty high in the February ADP, coming in at 2.11 before falling to 3.07 in March because of his lack of participation at the NFL Combine. After his impressive pro-day, Abanikanda finally ended up at 3.02 in April ADP. I believe that Abanikanda is one of the draft’s best values at this price. I could easily see him being drafted earlier, especially if he was to get earlier NFL Draft capital than expected.
Trade Value
- 3.02 for Michael Thomas
- 3.02 for Sam Darnold
- Isaiah Likely and 3.02 for Tyler Allgeier and 3.11
Possible Pivots
Kayshon Boutte, Darnell Washington, and Chase Brown
1QB League Options
Darnell Washington
- Dynasty Fantasy Football: Targets Acquired - January 3, 2025
- 2025 NFL Draft: Dynasty Superflex Rookie Mock - January 2, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football: Targets Acquired - November 29, 2024
