Dynasty GAAP Memo: Second-Year Breakout Running Backs
I am a CPA who fits the typical accountant stereotype. I enjoy writing technical accounting memos, accounting research (yes, it’s a thing), and analyzing the financial statements of a business. In accounting, you often must evaluate qualitative and quantitative factors during complex transactions to forecast future performance. I have found that the outlook and rationale of evaluating business transactions parallels another interest of mine, dynasty fantasy football.
In dynasty, we are given both quantitative factors (athletic scores, draft capital, college production, etc.) and qualitative factors (camp hype, team situation, injury history, etc.) that we must consider and evaluate to derive an estimate or projection of a player. Then, we must take calculated risks based on our team’s overall financial statements (i.e., current roster and league). I could go on and on with accounting-based puns and comparisons, but I think you get it.
I will note that I will write in the form of “accounting memos”. For anyone who has not been exposed, the format is very standard. Each memo will start with the “purpose”. Next, it will outline the applicable “guidance” or accounting literature utilized and supply background. Last will be the analysis and conclusion. The goal is to state the issue and quickly address it. My write-ups will follow this same logic.
To summarize, welcome to “Good at Analyzing Players” or “GAAP”. And yes, this is a play on “Generally Accepted Accounting Principles” and my wife did come up with it.
Purpose:
The purpose of this memo is to identify material rights, or factors, that gave rise to second-year breakouts for running backs.
Background:
Recently in dynasty, the growing trend and expectation is that rookie running backs should start producing immediately. This is evidenced by Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs currently being RB9 and RB10 through 12 weeks, respectively, in their rookie seasons. However, within the top 16 RB scorers of the same period, I noticed something interesting. There were five second-year running backs who had disappointed in their rookie seasons but then bounced back to be borderline RB1s in their sophomore campaigns.
See the table below which compares the average PPR ranking and average PPR fantasy points for Brian Robinson, Rachaad White, James Cook, Kyren Williams, and Isiah Pacheco.
There is something to find in the huge increases between year one and year two. This memo will explore and try to identify factors that helped foster the second-year breakouts.
Resources:
- Sleeper: Great interface for looking up historical statistics
- DLF Dynasty Rankings: Best dynasty rankings in the industry
- DLF Average Draft Position (“ADP”) Data: Best resource to gauge current player value. Based upon real dynasty startups.
Analysis:
In revenue accounting, there is a concept called a “material right.” A material right is an option to purchase additional goods or services at a price that is less than what the customer would have paid if they had not entered into the contract. If this right exists in the contract, then the contract gives rise to a “material right.” The easiest example of this is a coffee stamp card. Each time you purchase a coffee, you get a stamp on your card. Once you collect four stamps, you get your fifth coffee for free. A component of price for the first four coffees needs to be allocated to the fifth.
For dynasty and evaluating these young RBs, their “material right” (or fifth cup of coffee) is the factor that drove their second-year breakout. If this player did not enter into the season with this factor, the player would not have broken out in year two. The identifying and evaluating of material rights requires significant judgment on the part of management. This is true for the analysis below and these are my observations.
Brian Robinson, WAS (24 years old)
Robinson’s young NFL career got off to a shocking start when he was actually shot in his leg prior to the 2022 season during an armed robbery. Without this injury leading into the 2023 season, we should have expected an increase year-over-year. However, I was not expecting a 51% increase. The most shocking component of Robinson’s 2023 breakout is that he has made 29 receptions through 12 weeks and is on pace for over 40 receptions on the season. This is a dramatic increase from 2022 where he only had 12 targets. The expectation for most managers was this would be a timeshare backfield and that Antonio Gibson would primarily be utilized as the pass-catching back akin to JD McKissic in years prior.
However, the primary driving factor for this change is the arrival of Eric Bieniemy as the offensive coordinator. It has been well documented that Bieniemy has led an electric Kansas City Chiefs offense for the last few years. This led to multiple head coaching interviews that never materialized for the coordinator, so a change of scenery was needed to get out of the shadow of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. During his time with the Chiefs, Bieniemy’s offense was one of the most pass-happy in the NFL and often threw to the running backs out of the backfield (Jerick McKinnon had an RB20 finish in 2022). He brought this sentiment with him to Washington. This is evidenced by Sam Howell leading the NFL with 486 pass attempts (next closest is Josh Allen with 433) and by Robinson’s pass-catching success in 2023.
The material right I have identified is a Coaching Change.
Rachaad White, TB (24 years old)
In 2022, White backed up Leonard Fournette, who finished as RB12 on the season. Entering the 2023 season, this led the community to be split on White. Some were excited about the opportunity that just gave rise to an RB1 finish the year prior and White’s pass-catching abilities. Others were discouraged by the lack of production from White in 2022 and that he could not surpass Fournette on the depth chart even though the veteran was widely inefficient with his touches (3.5 yards per carry and 7.1 yards per reception). Oddly enough, the coaching staff was not far off as White is only slightly more inefficient with 3.6 yards per carry and 8.5 yards per reception in 2023. With the lack of efficiency, his opportunity share of 72.5% (fourth in the NFL) and snap share of 76.7 (sixth in the NFL) are what is driving his production.
Based upon these considerations, the material right I have identified is a Volume.
Isiah Pacheco, KC (23 years old)
Pacheco is the lowest-drafted player on this list and is certainly an outlier among outliers as he was a seventh-round NFL Draft pick. Players with his draft capital rarely produce as an RB1. While Pacheco was always beloved by the dynasty community since he fell into an Andy Reid offense, he was not valued as a bell cow heading into the 2023 season with an ADP of 93 in November ADP. As a Chiefs fan (I grew up in the Trent Green era and suffered through the Matt Cassel and Brodie Croyle years; don’t @ me), I will not ignore the fact that he has evolved from a bowling ball trying to hurt the ground in 2022 to a more patient bowling ball still trying to hurt the ground in 2023. He has definitely worked on his game and is letting plays develop, better at pass blocking and catching the football out of the backfield.
However, his teammates might be driving his increase in production. By that, I do not mean his offensive linemen creating holes. The lack of reliable receivers has plagued the Chiefs offense in 2023. The Chiefs have 24 dropped passes, which is the most in the NFL. Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling each have terrible drops on a weekly basis, which has stalled drives for the Chiefs. This has led Andy Reid to lean more heavily on the run game and Pacheco. Otherwise, I am not sure it is a good idea to take the ball out of the hands of the best QB on the planet.
Based upon these considerations, the material right I have identified is a Lack of Surrounding Talent.
James Cook, BUF (24 years old)
Cook was pinned as a third-down back coming out of the 2022 NFL draft. This pass-catching ability and draft capital led dynasty managers to select Cook in the first round of the 2022 rookie draft. However, during his rookie season, the Bills chose to not feature Cook and roll with the veteran Devin Singletary. Singletary finished as RB23 in 2022. Dynasty managers (and myself included) were inspired again by the lack of competition added to the Bills’ backfield, his pass-catching ability, and Cook’s efficiency during his rookie season when he averaged 5.8 yards per carry.
While he has not gotten the rushing attempts (only 13 per game) or targets (2.9 per game) of a featured back, his efficiency has continued with still averaging 4.8 yards per carry.
Based upon these considerations, the material right I have identified is Efficiency.
Kyren Williams, LAR (23 years old)
Williams is the most interesting player identified because it does not stand out in any way on paper. He has low draft capital, 10th percentile speed score, and 21st percentile 21st burst score, and is undersized at 5’9” and 195 lbs. This profile coupled with barely playing in 2022 led some managers to cut bait on the rookie before 2023. For instance, I got him off waivers for $0 in the off-season.
Then in 2023, BOOM – the highest snap share in the NFL by an RB at 85.9%. But unlike White above, Williams has been efficient and averaged 5.3 yards per carry. He also has shown the ability to get into the end zone with nine TDs, which is tied for sixth in the NFL, and averaging 21.4 fantasy points per game, which is RB2 behind only Christian McCaffrey.
I have seen the dynasty community pin Williams as the next Austin Ekeler (smaller RB, pass-catching ability, and really good at football). Based on his production, who am I to disagree at this point?
Based upon these considerations, the material right I have identified is Talent.
Conclusion:
This week’s memo is not about how to value the players above. The purpose is to attempt to identify these players’ “material rights”, or the element that gave rise to their second-year breakout. The takeaway is that there are multiple factors that could give rise to fantasy breakout. It could be gaining heavy volume or opportunity, a coaching change, the lack of surrounding talent, continued efficiency, or a player capitalizing on a chance to show off his talent. Other factors that were not noted above are injuries, change in system, a better supporting cast, etc. In the NFL things change fast and there are a lot of elements that change week-to-week and definitely year-to-year. Any of those elements could be a kindle that ignites a fantasy breakout.
The last takeaway is to practice patience with rookies. We have been spoiled recently with immediate production from RBs. If you drafted Zach Charbonnet, Tyjae Spears, Kendre Miller, Tank Bigsby or Roschon Johnson; be patient. Do not sell low on these young rookies because second-year breakouts can happen.
Oh, and go try and buy Kyren Williams for me. I’ve been trying and can’t but I’m sure there are skeptical owners out there still.
“Well, he’s a complete back. I think he’s got the ability to play on all downs. He’s really put the work in.”
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