Dynasty Blueprint: 5 Takeaways From Week 11
Editor’s Note: Ryan debuted the Dynasty Blueprint term all the way back in 2014, focusing on his personal dynasty strategy and philosophy. He introduced ideas like punting running backs and the now-common productive struggle. This series expands on the original, providing an in-depth look inside his dynasty mind.
This is my personal weekly Dynasty Blueprint. This article and all of the content on DLF is for you, the reader. The goal is to make you a better dynasty player and bring home some titles. Hopefully, this will help you reach that goal.
DYNASTY FIVE
Here are the five dynasty-related stories that have my attention coming off of another week of NFL action.
More #$&%?&%#% Injuries
Mark Andrews. Joe Burrow. Aaron Jones. De’Von Achane. Cooper Kupp. Kenneth Walker. Geno Smith.
In a game as fast-paced and hard-hitting as the NFL, there are going to be injuries every week. Maybe it’s like this every year and we’ve just lost perspective but this year sure seems worse than normal. We should’ve known the week was doomed when we saw that Thursday night game, losing both Andrews and Burrow, along with Lamar Jackson getting banged up.
While Sunday brought more damage, the worst of the week certainly seems to be the duo from the AFC North. The Ravens lost Andrews early in the game as he came down awkwardly after being hip-drop tackled by the Bengals defender. Andrews knew immediately that something wasn’t right and while it was encouraging to see him limp off the field mostly under his own power, the rest of the news was not positive. Andrews will miss the remainder of the season with leg and ankle injuries, though the complete prognosis and timeline are still uncertain. Andrews was part of a tightly packed top tier of tight ends, along with Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, and TJ Hockenson. Each of those players should now be valued ahead of him, at least when it comes to contending teams. Though it would be a savvy move for the rare non-contender with Kelce to flip assets.
It has been a frustrating year for the Bengals, who got off to a slow start as Burrow was nursing a calf injury. Just as he seemed to be fully past the leg issue, something clearly went wrong with his throwing hand. There is uncertainty if Burrow entered the game with a pre-existing injury or if it was simply the punishing and persistent Ravens defense. Regardless, Burrow will now miss the remainder of the season with a ligament injury on his throwing hand. Already facing an uphill battle to make the playoffs, the Bengals now have almost no chance at a post-season run. Presumably, Jake Browning will draw the starting nod moving forward and while he played well given the circumstances on Thursday night, this is a clear downgrade for Ja’Marr Chase and the rest of the Cincy offense. CeeDee Lamb and AJ Brown were already narrowing the gap between themselves and Chase in dynasty rankings and this injury could be enough to group the trio in the same tier.
Underrated Aiyuk
As the 49ers held off the pesky Buccaneers, Brandon Aiyuk put together another big game, catching five passes for 156 yards, including a 76-yard touchdown. Aiyuk is currently the WR5 for the week and the WR12 on the year, based on fantasy points per game. This was Aiyuk’s third WR1 game of the year, but his first since Week Four. Sharing an offense with Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel will cause that, but Aiyuk has only one game outside of the WR3 range this season. Still just 25 years old, Aiyuk is the WR15 and 23rd overall in our November dynasty ADP, clearly overtaking his teammate Samuel (WR30.) This is Aiyuk’s highest positional and overall ADP of his career, which shows that his value is finally starting to be corrected in the dynasty community. Among the recently completed trades in the DLF Trade Finder are deals of Aiyuk for a single first-round pick, which should be an auto-accept in nearly all situations.
kelley l cox-usa today sports
BRob Breakout Continues
Brian Robinson just continues to produce. Pending Monday Night Football, Robinson is the RB7 for the week after totaling over 130 yards against the Giants on Sunday. The Commanders were without Antonio Gibson, but Robinson’s role in the passing game had been growing even before Week 11. Robinson has more receiving yards in the past two weeks (177) than he had in the first 21 games of his career (137.) He’s notched three RB1 games on the season, including two as the overall top scorer. If this passing-game role sticks, Robinson’s dynasty value will explode, though the threat of the impending Gibson return lingers. Robinson is the RB4 on the year and the RB25 in our current dynasty ADP.
Back on the Fields
After missing a month, the Bears welcome back their leader Justin Fields. It was an impressive performance for Fields, who nearly led his team to an upset victory over the Lions, before the Chicago defense faltered. Fields threw for 169 yards and a score, while rushing for 104 yards on 18 carries. That’s the most rushing yards by a quarterback in a single game this season. Fields was a fantasy football machine in the back half of last season, thanks in large part to his rushing ability. This game should give fantasy managers hope that the coaching staff will unleash Fields for the remainder of the season. Currently just the QB13, Fields is a likely riser as the season winds down, though the inevitable questions about his future could leave his dynasty value in flux.
Bryce the Bust
Bryce Young was really bad. Again. Young is currently the QB26 on the week with one game remaining. Passing for 123 yards and one score and lacking a threat to run, Young has been among the most disappointing players of the season. The excuses are obvious. He’s a rookie. He has the worst supporting cast in the league. The coaching staff is on shaky ground less than a year into their tenure. None of that matters to those who spent a top rookie pick on Young as they weekly witness CJ Stroud throwing darts and racking up fantasy points. Young has yet to throw for over 250 yards and has tossed multiple touchdowns just one time. That game, back in Week Five, also represents his only fantasy finish inside the top 15. Young is the QB27 on the season, being grouped with known busts like Kenny Pickett, Zach Wilson, and Mac Jones. This is no company you want to keep. It’s a virtual lock that the Panthers will be rocking a new coaching staff next season, which will hopefully benefit Young. There is time to turn things around, but when the evidence is this bad, I typically stay away.
jim dedmon-usa today sports
FOR YOUR EYES ONLY
The longtime DLF readers might remember this from my time penning the weekly DLF Dynasty Newsletter. Essentially, this area will offer me an opportunity to share whatever dynasty-related topic is at the front of my mind this week.
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Tyreek Hill went off in Week Eleven, catching ten passes for 146 yards and a touchdown. Hill is the WR2 on the week and the WR1 on the year. Hill’s stated goal for the season was to exceed 2,000 receiving yards. He’s currently on pace to do that. In fact, his season-long numbers at his current pace would include 134 receptions, 2,077 yards and 15 scores. At that rate and mixing in Hill’s occasional work in the run game, he would be in position to post the best fantasy season ever by a receiver.
Most of that does not come as a surprise at this point, especially if you have Hill on your dynasty roster. As enjoyable as it has been to roster Hill this season, he creates a conundrum for dynasty managers. In fact, the dynasty community is dealing with this same issue at the running back position with Christian McCaffrey as well as tight end, thanks to Travis Kelce.
Hill, at 29 years old, is the WR1 and declared last offseason that he plans to fulfill his current contract and then step away from the game. Considering Hill will be 32 years old when his current contract ends, that news should’ve been a blip on the radar, but instead it caused many to panic. Meanwhile, McCaffrey is the runaway RB1, totaling more than 60 fantasy points more than any other back. At 27 years old, CMC has shown no signs of slowing down. Kelce leads all tight ends with 17.6 fantasy points per game, despite showing hints of a letdown. At 34 years old, Kelce could give us multiple more years.
Taking a look at November’s DLF dynasty ADP, seven of the top-eight wide receivers are 26 years old or younger, with Hill the obvious exception. The ageism is more evident at the running back position, where we find seven of the top eight are 24 or younger. Finally, the tight end position is a little more suited for veterans of the position, but Kelce is still the only one in the top six over 28 years old.
Valuing the elite “old” among high-upside younger players can be difficult but that’s only because rankings are essentially a piece of mass advice and we know there’s never one set answer in fantasy football. Every team and league dynamic is unique so while I might rank McCaffrey behind Breece Hall, there are many situations in which I’d prefer the veteran. I think we can view ADP data in a similar form.
As far as what to do with these players as the dynasty trade deadline nears, I think it is pretty easy. If you have McCaffrey, Hill, or Kelce on a contending team, you keep them and make your play for a league title. If you have little or no reasonable expectations of a dynasty championship, it’s time to pivot. There is a nearly endless list of trade ideas to be found for these players using the Trade Finder tool.
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