Tactical Transactions: Moves to Make Before Week 11
In recently re-watching Remember the Titans for about the 47th time, I was reminded about what I believe to be perhaps the most outlandish bit of minutiae in all of sports moviedom. There is no way – NO WAY – Alan “Burnt Toast” Bosley was a “five-time, five-time player of the week!” as his father angrily exclaimed following his benching! Ryan Gosling has pulled off some incredible acting gigs over his career, but depicting Bosley as anything even remotely resembling a former stalwart defender was a bridge too far.
Think about it…
At the very beginning of the movie, his teammates are hard at work at a pad-less practice while he comes sidling up in preppy clothes, not a drop of sweat on him. Come training camp, he’s trading for extra dessert at his meals and throwing up during workouts (see again: lack of off-season preparation and clearly bad dietary habits). You could practically see him tiring while busting country moves for his roommate Blue Poitier, who finally reaches his breaking point in crying out “does the term cruel and unusual punishment mean anything to you?” While the directors undoubtedly wanted you to think this was about musical choice, Blue might as well have been talking about Bosley’s on-field performance, which was…lacking.
In the first game of the year, he gives up a touchdown almost immediately, acknowledging to team captain Gerry Bertier that he can’t keep up with the opposing receiver. Petey Jones, a running back (THE running back, ya’ll) known for little more than his fumbling problems, comes in and instantly makes an impact with a pass breakup and strong tackling, giving the Titans the Revis Island they desperately needed. When Bosley finally reemerges in the state championship, he makes it two for two in getting put in a pair of clown shoes giving up yet another score. I don’t know what types of metrics they kept back in those days, but quarterbacks targeting Bosley undoubtedly came away with a perfect passer rating.
Five-time player of the week. Was he the team’s kicker too? Maybe a valuable special teams gunner like Patriot Matthew Slater? The mascot? I don’t know the answers to these burning questions, but I do know that Alan Bosley was not coming away with those accolades based on his defensive performance.
Was there a point to this introduction? Maybe not. Maybe I just wanted to vent about one of the most ridiculous cinematic reveals in movie history.
Or maybe, if we really reach, we can think about not buying into our own early-season press clippings. Maybe Bosley had some success as a hungrier underclassman, but eventually, he stopped putting in the work. For the contenders among us, you’ve won the games you’ve won (both this year and in years prior), but you still have to keep your eyes on the prize. Keep grinding, making moves, and leveraging available advantages like our just-released November ADP. Don’t be like Alan.
Disclaimer! As you’re well aware by the fact you’ve come to a website entitled dynastyleaguefootball.com, we’re still taking a long view into account in addition to each player’s weekly (and year-to-date) output. Guidance will continue to take into account a player’s current stature in tools such as DLF’s ADP and rankings, in addition to how he’s performed.
One last note, as I’m referencing DLF ADP and rankings, advice herein is for a 12-team, non-superflex setting with full PPR scoring. Divergent league settings (both for starting positions and scoring) hopefully shouldn’t render this advice as not actionable, but it’s an important disclaimer nonetheless.
With that preamble in hand, here are the tactical transactions you should consider before week 11:
Buy (All Teams/Contending Slant) – Jonathan Taylor, RB IND
Week 10 Line: 23-69-1, 1-6-0 (1 target)
Whether it was due to injury or contract issues, we can officially put to rest any thought of Taylor not functioning as the engine of the Colts offense. Though the efficiency wasn’t there, Taylor’s 24 touches assert that barring any future shenanigans he’s successfully and completely leapfrogged teammate Zack Moss, effectively concluding what was something of a reintegration phase. Even while partially sharing work with Moss, Taylor managed to accumulate a robust 81 touches over the past month of gameplay, with a 20-opportunity floor seeming likely barring an extremely unfavorable game script.
Snap data courtesy of 4for4.com.
As younger, elite talents, I understand why Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall are ahead of Taylor in the ADP. Ditto Christian McCaffrey, who has a fantasy ceiling unmatched at the position. But this is where I would personally draw the line and would much prefer Taylor over Travis Etienne and Jahmyr Gibbs, bumping them down a notch. If you feel similarly, now might be the time to strike before Taylor’s current owners begin to again remember him as the former dynasty RB1, continuing his current ADP upswing.
Still just 24 years old, Taylor is a buy for all teams. Still, he may be slightly more sensible for contenders, especially if a rebuilding squad still may be a few years away. Taylor’s wheels won’t magically fall off when he turns 27, but there still typically exists the stigma for aging running backs and an associated wane in value – in such instances for rebuilders, I’d seek a return of a young receiver like Chris Olave or Devonta Smith.
Buy (All Teams/Rebuilding Slant) – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR SEA
Week 10 Line: 4-53-0 (5 targets)
If you’re like me, you may have thought Smith-Njigba was the best receiver in the 2023 NFL draft class. If true, then it’s likely the successes of his colleagues would not have fully disabused you of that notion. However, this is not fully the case with the aggregate of the dynasty masses, who have placed JSN behind fellow rookies Jordan Addison and Puka Nacua, and roughly square with Zay Flowers per the ADP. This is also shown in their respective values according to the DLF Trade Analyzer.
Addison has been fairly steady even with mayhem around him with injuries to teammates Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson. But while Nacua and Flowers have slowed somewhat, Smith-Njigba is beginning to show signs of life with 85% of his receiving yardage and both his scores coming over his past five games. Still the third option in the passing game, the returns have been modest, but I believe they’re a sign of things to come in future years.
If you’re a believer in JSN but weren’t able to snag him in your rookie draft, now could be a good opportunity to strike. Though he carries more value than Flowers, the latter’s production could be tempting. Both Addison and Nacua should yield a return of Smith-Njigba and a sweetener. This would probably be something of an odd “rebuilder/rebuilder” trade, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
Sell (All Teams) – Trevor Lawrence, QB JAC
Week 10 Line: 17 for 29, 185-0-2 (7 rushing yards)
Can we talk about this? After receiving a well-deserved pass following an Urban Meyer-marred rookie season, Lawrence ostensibly improved in year two under new head coach Doug Pedersen. However I was of the mindset after digging into the advanced metrics that much of this was at least partly a mirage – Lawrence rarely sought to push the ball downfield, with nearly half of his yards occurring after the catch. Somehow in 2023, it’s been even worse.
Advance metrics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
Now only attempting 7.0 air yards per attempt (IAY/PA), Lawrence’s supporting cast is still doing the bulk of the work. In fact, his intended air yards (IAY) are actually lower than his total for passing yards (Yds). If he was getting the ball into the end zone this could be forgivable, but on the year he’s only averaging one passing score per game. He’s running the ball better and more often in 2023, but is also failing to compile touchdowns on the ground. This has led to a signal-caller effectively devoid of upside, and not surprisingly he’s the QB18 on the season despite an improved cast around him.
Yet, he remains as the QB8 per the November ADP, meaning the dynasty masses are still buying into his theoretical upside. As a former prodigy and first overall pick, the extra Teflon coating makes sense, but it may not last much longer (see Justin Fields). I would personally prefer the next four players plus Brock Purdy and Sam Howell, and possibly even others not pictured like Cousins and Jared Goff. Barring a dramatic turnaround in the later stages of the season, it’s impossible to see Lawrence hanging onto his current value.
Buy (All Teams) – Jake Ferguson, TE DAL
Week 10 Line: 5-52-2
It’s impossible to ignore what Ferguson has been doing over the past few weeks, with his last three contests yielding an aggregate line of 15-164-3. In total, he has the second-most targets, receptions and yards on the Cowboys, while tying receiver CeeDee Lamb for the most touchdowns. Unsurprisingly in a position largely bereft of ceiling, Ferguson now finds himself as the PPR TE9 on the year.
Snap data courtesy of 4for4.com.
Perhaps most important to his success is that, other than Lamb, he’s playing the most snaps out of the skill position players. Though he hasn’t massively eclipsed receivers Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup, he has trended higher than them the past few weeks with elite (>80%) usage, which undoubtedly would have again been the case if the Giants made a game of it on Sunday. Most importantly, positional cohorts Peyton Hendershot and second-round rookie Luke Schoonmaker do not even combine to match Ferguson’s rate and total utilization.
Currently the TE14 by ADP, I believe Ferguson’s value is depressed due to the combination of him being a former fourth-round pick, and this year’s early-round selection of Schoonmaker. While the rookie may eventually make up ground, Ferguson has been the clear successor to former Cowboy Dalton Schultz. As the second option on an offense rediscovering its elite potency, this is a recipe for fantasy success.
Priority Waiver Add (All Teams) – AT Perry, WR NO
Week 10 Line: 2-38-1 (4 targets)
With teammate Michael Thomas facing the on-field issue of a mid-game knee injury, it was the sixth-round draft pick Perry who stepped in to play 84% of the team’s snaps (per 4for4). This follows more modest efforts in the prior two games (12% and 25% of snaps played), but it appeared as though the rookie was beginning to gain traction before breaking through. With potential off-field trouble for Thomas as well due to a recent arrest and charge of battery, Perry’s star could continue to shine.
At just under 6’4” and 200 pounds, Perry is a large human being. With a 4.47-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, he’s also fast and can jump out of the building with a 96th-percentile high jump. Coupled with 84th-percentile arm length, it’s unsurprising the former Wake Forest product was able to collect 26 scores over his final two collegiate seasons.
Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference.
I don’t know why Perry fell in the draft, but much like fellow late-round pick Nacua, he’s beginning to show that may have been an error. The show is still going to run through Olave and Alvin Kamara, but Perry is showing that he may deserve his slice of the pie as well. Potentially available in the majority of leagues per the November ADP, he’s an upside add to the end of your roster.
Priority Drop (All Teams) – Cordarrelle Patterson, RB ATL
Week 10 line: 3-13-0, 2-7-0 (2 targets)
I’ll preface this by saying when we’re talking about Falcons Head Coach Arthur Smith, you can’t simply assume he won’t do something idiotic like give Patterson 15 touches next week over Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. But in Sunday’s contest with the Arizona Cardinals, there were 39 total running back opportunities (carries plus targets) and only five of them belonged to the veteran. On a largely inept offense that may be forced to go back to Desmond Ridder with replacement Taylor Heinicke suffering a hamstring injury, that’s not a recipe for any semblance of fantasy stardom.
Apart from an out-of-place 10-carry effort in mid-October, Patterson has been silent following his return from injury. Now 32 years old and with the most competition he’s had during his time as a Falcon, the sun appears to be setting on a somewhat successful, if circuitous career. With no path towards playing time barring injury, and a nearly evaporated role in the passing game, dynasty owners of all teams can confidently cut him loose.
Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27.
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