Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Strategy: A View from the 1.05
For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now mere days away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention (and sometimes even before), we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.
In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option. In addition, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick.
We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.
ROOKIE SELECTION 1.05
The Pick: Drake London, WR USC
I’m not sure dynasty managers know how to value London as the NFL Draft approaches and that is somewhat understandable. There are signals that the former USC star could become a dominant and physical force in the NFL, but others just as strong suggesting he’s simply the next first-round bust.
London was a two-sport star for USC, playing football and basketball. Once he stepped away from the court, London’s gridiron game got an upgrade. His final college season marked his first full year devoted to football and all he did was catch 88 passes for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns in only eight games – that was enough to earn him the PAC-12 Player of the Year honors, despite a fractured ankle that cost him the final four games of the year.
London is big and physical with a massive catch radius, but he lacks speed and that has raised concerns for many in the fantasy and draft communities. London was expected to run his 40 at his recent Pro Day but he opted out, which is an obvious red flag. So, we don’t know exactly how fast London is, but if he was confident running would help his profile, he obviously would’ve made a different decision. London led the nation with 19 contested catches. This is a tricky stat to evaluate as it shows both toughness and a lack of separation. If London can’t get open against PAC-12 defenders, how will he find space on Sundays? London’s closest comps include some of the biggest wide receiver busts in recent year, including Jalen Reagor, JJ Arcega-Whiteside and N’Keal Harry – not good company to keep.
Despite all of these concerns, London is still projected to be a top-15 pick overall and the third receiver drafted. His rookie ADP hasn’t moved all off-season. In all three months of DLF rookie ADP data, he has been selected as the fifth player and third receiver off the board.
Trade Value
- 1.05 for 1.10, 2.04, 2.10
- 1.05/Ronald Jones for Stefon Diggs
- 1.05/2023 2nd round pick for 1.01
Possible Pivots
Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams
Super-Flex Options
Wilson
Rookie Selection 2.05
The Pick: John Metchie, WR Alabama
After two consecutive years of Alabama producing multiple first-round wide receivers, it looked like Metchie could be next in line. Instead, Jameson Williams transferred in and became the top target in the Crimson Tide offense. Things are not all bad for Metchie, though, as he still produced 1,142 yards and eight touchdowns on 96 catches, leading the team in receptions.
Metchie’s best trait is his route running, but he also has strong hands and can play across the formation. He played mostly on the outside during his college career but was actually more successful in the slot, which will likely be his NFL position. There is also some concern because he did suffer a late-season torn ACL and was not able to work out at the Combine or Alabama’s Pro Day. Metchie’s current rookie ADP of 17 overall is his highest of the off-season and he is projected to be a Day Two pick and the tenth wideout drafted overall.
Trade Value
- 2.05/2.06 for DeAndre Hopkins
- 2.05/Aaron Jones for Antonio Gibson
- 2.05/4.05 for Keenan Allen
Possible Pivots
Super-Flex Options
Rookie Selection 3.05
The Pick: Desmond Ridder, QB Cincinnati
After an impressive college career as a four-year starter that featured him becoming third winningest FBS quarterback ever, Ridder has been a hot riser in both dynasty and NFL Draft circles. His superflex rookie ADP is up to 14 overall in superflex rookie drafts and Grinding the Mocks expects him to sneak into the late portion of the first round on Thursday evening as the third quarterback selected.
Ridder is a freak athlete with solid arm strength. He can throw on the move and is a quick processor. Like many college quarterbacks, he could stand to improve his accuracy and consistency but there is a lot to like about the former Cincinnati star.
Ridder posted a ridiculous Combine performance, including a 4.52 40 (96th percentile), a 36” vertical jump (95th percentile) and a 10’7” broad jump (99% percentile). His landing spot is going to be important, but Ridder is certainly intriguing.
Trade Value
- 3.05 for 3.07/3.09
- 3.05 for Khalil Herbert
- 3.05 for Russell Gage
Possible Pivots
Super-Flex Options
- Monday Mocks: 2024 Superflex Rookie Mock Draft - April 29, 2024
- DLF’s April 1QB Trade Value Chart - April 24, 2024
- Monday Mocks: Expert 2024 Rookie Mock Draft - April 22, 2024
