Cornerstone Report: Week Nine
Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the NFL rookie class and projected 2021 rookie class.
It uses tools including our Dynasty Trade Analyzer, the DLF Trade Finder, average draft position and DLF rankings to compare player values.
Last week’s column featuring Mac Jones, Najee Harris and JK Dobbins can be found here.
NCAA WEEK Ten
Chris Olave, WR Ohio State
Dynasty managers spent the off-season sifting through the blue-chip Ohio State receiving corps to identify its most valuable assets. Junior Chris Olave and sophomore Garrett Wilson emerged as the main contenders, and through three games are indeed the Buckeyes’ leading receivers.
Olave is actually one of OSU’s less-heralded WR signings. He was a three-star, top 300 national prospect from California. He was quiet as a true freshman but made a splash as a sophomore in 2019, when he led the team in receiving yards (840) and touchdowns (12). His 21.8 dominator rating gave him “breakout” status as a 19-year-old and put him in the top quartile of historical receiver prospects. He is building a quality prospect profile and still has a full season ahead on a winning team with an elite quarterback in Justin Fields (profiled in week seven).
Statistics from Sports Reference.
At 6’1” and 185 pounds he is neither a top speedster nor a physical bully but he has plenty of athleticism and burst.
CHRIS OLAVE TOOK HIS SOUL 😱 https://t.co/QjHDWq4chE
— Barstool Ohio State (@BarstoolOSU) November 1, 2020
He remains a value in devy despite his production. He comes in at 36th in the DLF Devy Rankings, which is 18 spots behind Garrett Wilson. There is variance within the rankings. His high rank is 14th while two of our crew do not include him in their top 70. The broader community rates him higher, and within a more narrow range. His Devy ADP is 22nd with a high value of 18th and a low of 26th.
Tamorrion Terry, WR Florida State
While Olave is a young player on a top team tied to an elite quarterback, Terry was on a two-win team, tied to abysmal quarterback play and will be a 23-year old rookie. He was draft-eligible after an impressive 2019 season but chose to return for his redshirt junior year. Unfortunately, he was on pace for career lows in every receiving category and missed two games after surgery to clean up a lingering knee injury.
Statistics from Sports-Reference.com.
On Wednesday, head coach Mike Norvell announced that Terry is no longer part of the Florida State program. This can be interpreted as an opt-out situation. Terry is unlikely to enroll at another school given his body of work and age. Expect to hear soon that he is focusing on getting healthy and preparing for the NFL draft.
At 6’3” and 222 pounds (up from 208 pounds in 2019) he offers a tantalizing mix of size, speed and burst. His ability to create the big play is special, as are his physical skills at that size.
Florida State WR Tamorrion Terry averaged 57.8 yards per catch on his 9 TDs last season.
Highest of all CFB players with 3+ TDspic.twitter.com/EUcW7th64W
— PFF College (@PFF_College) May 15, 2020
He is indeed fun to watch.
Really impressed with Tamorrion Terry so far
6'4, tough after the catch – put up 60 / 1,188 / 9 and there was more left on the field due to inconsistent QB play pic.twitter.com/4eLP5HH5GR
— Connor Rogers (@ConnorJRogers) May 6, 2020
Even before Wednesday’s announcement, our devy staff seems to have discounted his value more than the broader community. He retains a first-round rookie pick value in Devy ADP (9th) while his rank among our team has fallen a full round all the way to 17th.
Terry had limited chances to improve his draft stock given the Seminoles’ issues at quarterback and offensive line. Considering FSU’s season, he may stand a better chance of improving his draft status off the field than on it.
NFL WEEK Nine
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB KC
What a ride it has already been for Edwards-Helaire. This time last year, he was just appearing on the dynasty radar. As recently as April he had an ADP in the 50s. Then Kansas City drafted him in the first round. Today his dynasty ADP is fourth overall but is not without criticism.
DLF’s ADP Over Time Tool.
In terms of rookie value, the trend was similar. He was the 1.07 pick in February before rising to DLF’s rookie 1.01 in May.
He is fantasy’s RB9 through nine weeks but it is hard to find a similarly ranked player enduring such scrutiny. His recent usage is admittedly alarming. Through six weeks he averaged 21.3 touches per game. Since week seven, the Chiefs have scored 37.0 points per game but Edwards-Helaire is getting just 8.6 touches a week.
Statistics from Pro Football Reference.
The DLF Snap Count App visualizes this trend another way. His time on the field has been steadily decreasing all season.
So where are we now? Edwards-Helaire sits at 11th as RB6 in the DLF Dynasty Rankings with a high value of fifth and a low of 17th. This is between fellow rookie Jonathan Taylor and wide receiver Michael Thomas. As noted earlier, he is fifth in Startup Dynasty ADP between Saquon Barkley and Taylor.
Our Cornerstone Rankings combine first and second year NFL players with expected 2021 rookies. Here he ranks second overall behind only DK Metcalf.
The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer algorithm combines rankings, ADP and real-world MyFantasyLeague (MFL) trades to value players and rookie picks. It values Edwards-Helaire roughly in line with an early 2021 first-round pick plus an early second-rounder. Players of similar value include Metcalf, Josh Jacobs and DeAndre Hopkins.
Finally, our Dynasty Trade Finder pulls actual MFL trades per custom parameters. Recent deals involving Edwards-Helaire include the following:
- 11-10-2020: Clyde Edwards-Helaire for RB Nick Chubb, CLE
- 11-07-2020: Clyde Edwards-Helaire for RB Austin Ekeler, LAC; Year 2021 round one draft pick; Year 2021 round three draft pick
- 11-06-2020: Clyde Edwards-Helaire for Year 2021 round one draft pick and Year 2021 round two draft pick
- 11-05-2020: Clyde Edwards-Helaire for RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
I hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. Find me on Twitter at @threedownhack as we uncover the next cornerstone players.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
