Cornerstone Report: Week Nine
Welcome to week nine of the Cornerstone Report, a weekly in-season series focused on valuing first and second-year NFL players and the projected 2022 rookie class.
It uses tools including our Dynasty Trade Analyzer, the DLF Trade Finder, average draft position and DLF rankings to compare player values across classes.
NFL WEEK NINE
Joe Burrow, QB CIN
Through ten games of his rookie season, Burrow was on pace to attempt the fourth-most passes (646) for a season in the league since 2017. His fantasy production came purely from volume, as his Bengals ranked near the bottom of the league in more advanced passing statistics.
So, it was worrisome when, three weeks into the 2021 season, his mere 25.0 pass attempts per game put him at 62% of his rookie year volume. Was the coaching staff easing him back after his knee injury? Was the injury lingering? But he has surpassed that pace in each of the last six weeks and is back up to a respectable 31.8 attempts per game, and the yards (277.4) and touchdowns (2.2) per game are following suit. The result is year-to-date QB9 production.
Through it all, his ADP has fallen about a round from this time last year, and the injury does not appear to be an issue.
In terms of superflex ADP, he is back among the elite as the QB7 and last of the quarterbacks composing the top tier of players. That means his value is in line with Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson, above all non-quarterbacks, and just above Christian McCaffrey, Najee Harris and Jonathan Taylor.
The Dynasty Trade Analyzer notes it takes about an early 2022 rookie first-round pick plus a late first to trade for him. In this respect, he is living up to his 1.01 superflex rookie ADP from a year ago. He is producing as such on the field, as well.
Pat Freiermuth, TE PIT
Freiermuth is the year-to-date fantasy TE15 on the strength of three touchdowns in the last two weeks. Though that touchdown rate is unsustainable, other metrics point to more production ahead. Since week six, his 6.7 targets per game are tenth among all tight ends, and his per-snap target rate ranks ninth. He is second among Steelers in targets during that time, trailing only Diontae Johnson, and is even out-targeting Najee Harris 20 to 13.
Perhaps Freiermuth (along with Najee Harris) is benefitting from Ben Roethlisberger’s declining willingness (or ability) to push the ball downfield. Big Ben has not hit his career average yards per attempt (7.7) in seven seasons, and this year is near a career-low.
Regardless, the second-round pick from Penn State has room to run in dynasty. He was the 2.12 pick in superflex rookie drafts as a compelling, if unexciting, alternative to Kyle Pitts. But despite his strong start, he is losing dynasty value. The Dynasty Trade Analyzer combines rankings and ADP data with real-world MFL trades to arrive at player and rookie pick values. It values him at a discount to his rookie ADP as a mid-round three 2022 rookie pick – a clear value given his season-long and up-trending production.
What happens when the 39-year old Roethlisberger retires? Perhaps ensuing poor quarterback play will limit Freiermuth’s upside. But one can argue the 2021 version of Roethlisberger is already doing that. Gone are the days of Pittsburgh leading the NFL in pass attempts as they did in 2020 and 2018, Big Ben’s last two full seasons. This year’s Steelers rank 17th in that category and in the league’s lower third in many passing metrics, but Freiermuth is still producing.
NCAA WEEK TEN
Wan’Dale Robinson, WR Kentucky
Robinson was one of my favorites from the 2019 prep recruiting class. Although he was a top 100 overall recruit with offers from Alabama and Ohio State, he always seemed to be a value in devy drafts.
Image from 247Sports.com.
Perhaps his size depressed his early devy value. He looked even smaller than his listed 5’9” and 175 pounds. But his versatility always stood out, as did his elusiveness and surprising strength.
His value fell even further during two years at Nebraska. Lost in those two quiet years as a Husker is the fact he caught 91 passes and produced nearly 1,500 scrimmage yards during that time.
An off-season transfer to Kentucky enabled him to build on that base. As a junior he is finally being featured and has produced a 71-811-6 receiving line in just nine games.
In the following play, he exhibits speed but also a special ability to plant and change direction without losing that speed. He can still outrun pursuit after making the last cut, and it proves to be the difference between a 20-yard gain and a touchdown.
Wan'dale Robinson is ELECTRIC ⚡️ @UKFootball pic.twitter.com/Pb3C7ru7bM
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) October 2, 2021
This play shows his deceptive strength. He may be small but is hard to bring down.
Second TD on the day for Wan’Dale Robinson #Devy pic.twitter.com/30G29KKYjd
— Greg Brandt (@devywarehouse) September 4, 2021
His production is increasing his dynasty value. He is the 33rd-ranked player and WR15 in the DLF Devy Rankings, among players including Georgia running back Kendall Milton and Pittsburgh wide receiver Jordan Addison. This projects him as the 2.03 pick in superflex rookie drafts between Alabama wide receiver Jameson Williams and Notre Dame Kyren Williams – all nice upside plays at those prices.
Robinson comes in at number 62 and near the bottom of our Cornerstone Rankings on the strength of my lone rank of him at 47.
He currently projects as a fourth-round NFL draft pick per NFL Mock Draft Database – quite a leap from just a month or two ago but reasonable given his size limitations and relatively limited collegiate production.
Thank you for reading this edition of the Cornerstone Report. Let me know what you think in the comments, or find me on Twitter at @threedownhack.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
