Cornerstone Report: Week Seven
Welcome to the Cornerstone Report. This weekly in-season series focuses on the NFL rookie class and projected 2021 rookie class.
It uses tools including our Dynasty Trade Analyzer, the DLF Trade Finder, average draft position and DLF rankings to compare player values.
Last week’s column featuring Trevor Lawrence, Journey Brown and Chase Claypool can be found here.
NCAA WEEK Eight
Justin Fields, QB Ohio State
Trevor Lawrence gets more attention, but we cannot overlook the expected second quarterback off the board in the 2021 NFL draft. Fields is an elite prospect in his own right.
As a prep, he was a five-star prospect who ranked second in the nation across all positions, behind only Lawrence. He already possessed NFL size at 6’3” and 221 pounds, but his professionalism impressed Trent Dilfer at the prestigious Elite 11 camp:
“He handled this process from the time he was invited up to today as well as I’ve seen many NFL quarterbacks prepare for training camp. Many. Not just a handful. Many. Truly professional. His work, his note-taking, his engagement and the questions he asked, the buy-in or whatever term that you want to use there…We’ve never seen anything like it.”
Through 27 collegiate games, Fields has compiled an impressive 47:3 touchdown to interception ratio and an adjusted yards per attempt mark of 11.3. This level of efficiency ranks second among all quarterbacks drafted in the first round in the last decade (Tua Tagovailoa; 12.3).
Statistics from Sports Reference.
However, as noted last week, quarterbacks need rushing production to be elite these days. In 2019, the top ten fantasy quarterbacks averaged a rushing line of 77-408-3.8. Even after eliminating Lamar Jackson’s outlying 176-1,206-7 performance, the remaining top nine QBs averaged 66-319-3.4 on the ground.
Fortunately, Fields is a dual-threat. He has rushed for more than 800 yards in 27 career games (also recall sack yardage is subtracted from rushing yards in college).
Statistics from Sports Reference.
Here’s a tweet of mine from three years ago:
Part of Justin Fields' skill set here that isn't shown in camps or 7on7 setting #Devy #CFB https://t.co/LtGkKl4AH1
— Frank Gruber (@threedownhack) August 19, 2017
A prospect with the pedigree of Fields is rarely a potential value play, but he may be just that in upcoming rookie drafts. He lies six spots behind Lawrence in the DLF Devy Rankings at 19th overall and 15th among 2021 prospects. This implies a rookie draft spot of 2.03 in 1QB leagues. In 1QB Devy ADP he comes in at 23rd overall and 18th in the 2021 class (five spots behind Lawrence). In Superflex ADP he is the consensus 1.02 pick. Finally, the DLF Cornerstone Rankings combine first and second-year NFL players with 2021 rookies. Fields is ranked 46th, between Amon-Ra St Brown and Devin Singletary, and 24 spots behind Lawrence.
Dyami Brown, WR North Carolina
Brown is becoming a household name in devy and dynasty, but serious recruitniks knew him as a top 200 overall prep prospect. He earned offers from Alabama and Ohio State before signing with the in-state Tar Heels.
He broke out as a true sophomore, surpassing the 20% dominator rating threshold at a 28.2% clip – a rate he is sustaining (28.0%) this season.
Statistics from Sports Reference.
Listed at 6’1” and 185 pounds, he is neither a physical bully nor a jitterbug. But he routinely creates space, especially on deep routes. In 2019, he ranked ninth nationally among wide receivers and led the ACC with 20.3 yards per catch. Many of his highlights show him winning deep, but there are examples of short to medium depth wins and yards after catch creativity.
How many Sam Howell stacks are we running on Saturday? Here’s the returning production
2019 yardage
Sam Howell – 3,641 pass
Michael Carter – 1,003 rush
Javonte Willians – 993 rush
Dyami Brown – 1,034 rec
Dazz Newsome – 1,018 rec
4 O-Line starterspic.twitter.com/z9AF4Bv1rq— Matt Gajewski (@Matt_Gajewski) September 9, 2020
Brown has emerged as the leader of an explosive North Carolina offense. Upside is baked into his current value of 24th in the DLF Devy Rankings. He is 17th in Devy ADP, a number that more accurately reflects his top-end value.
NFL WEEK Seven
James Robinson, RB JAC
Through seven weeks, undrafted free agent rookie Robinson is fantasy’s RB6 on a per-game basis, and the RB2 overall entering Jacksonville’s bye week. DLF subscribers should not be entirely surprised, however, as our team has touted him as a sleeper for months.
Robinson possesses the qualities we need to see from a small-school undrafted prospect.
- Size: 5’9” and 219 pounds (88th percentile BMI)
- Athleticism: top decile (DLF’s Historical Combine Data App)
- Production: 97th percentile college dominator rating
Through seven games, he has turned 32 targets into a 27-225-2 receiving line, and has produced regardless of game script. He looks natural as a receiver.
James Robinson does it again! #DUUUVAL
— Matty B (@mattthew_jordan) October 25, 2020
Robinson checks all the boxes except draft capital, which is why dynasty managers may not trust his production. How likely is he to retain a workhorse role past this year? Contenders who acquired him for peanuts are riding out his production, while rebuilders are cashing out. The Dynasty Trade Finder pulls real-life trades from MyFantasyLeague per custom parameters. Recent deals for Robinson on MFL include:
- 10-26-20: James Robinson for WR Courtland Sutton, DEN
- 10-25-20: James Robinson for WR Cooper Kupp, LAR (twice)
- 10-24-20: James Robinson and Year 2021 round two draft pick for RB JK Dobbins, BAL and Year 2021 round three draft pick
- 10-23-20: James Robinson and TE Kyle Rudolph, MIN for RB Austin Ekeler, LAC
The DLF Dynasty Trade Analyzer algorithm combines rankings, ADP and MFL trade data to arrive at player values. It values Robinson greater than a random 2021 first-round rookie pick.
Robinson is 83rd in the DLF Dynasty Rankings between Darren Waller and Mike Williams, and good for dynasty’s RB22. Superflex/2QB ADP values him as the RB17 with a fifth-round ADP of 49 – a significant rise in value considering he was not among the top 60 rookies in May Rookie ADP. Finally, he comes in at 50th in our Cornerstone Rankings between Zack Moss and Darrell Henderson, two players with third-round NFL draft capital.
I hope you enjoyed this edition of the Cornerstone Report. Find me on Twitter at @threedownhack as we uncover the next cornerstone players.
- 20/20: Jameson Williams, WR Alabama - February 26, 2022
- Cornerstone Report: Week Nine - November 12, 2021
- Cornerstone Report: Week Eight - November 5, 2021
