A View from the 1.10: Rookie Draft Strategy

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 14, 2020

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than two weeks away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.

In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.

Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

1.10

The Pick: Henry Ruggs, WR

Alabama speedster Henry Ruggs has turned into the most polarizing prospect in this class from a fantasy football point of view. The NFL seems to love Ruggs, who is locked in as a first-round pick and is in the running to be the first wideout drafted if we trust NFL mock drafts. In dynasty leagues, though, he is barely hanging onto first-round draft capital and is the fifth receiver off the board. While Ruggs has game-breaking speed, he doesn’t have the production that typically accompanies an elite receiver prospect. Ruggs never broke out during his college career, meaning he never reached 20% of his team’s receiving numbers, as shown below using DLF’s College Market Share App. Some explain this away by pointing out the elite receiver corps, which included Jerry Jeudy, Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle, but it is a reason for concern.

Possible Pivots

As I’ve mentioned in previous editions of this series, the late first round of rookie drafts looks to be dedicated to wide receivers. If Ruggs’ draft capital increases his value or if you are simply worried about him panning out in the league, you could instead consider Justin Jefferson, Denzel Mims or Tee Higgins.

Trade Value

1.10, 1.11 for AJ Brown, Jordan Howard
1.10, 1.05 for 1.02, 2021 3rd
1.10, 1.03, 2.10 for Alvin Kamara, 2.02

Super-Flex Options: Jalen Reagor, WR

The buzz was building with TCU receiver Jalen Reagor and he had a chance to explode with a memorable Combine performance. While his overall performance was impressive, he ran a slower than expected 4.47 and the hype slowed to a more reasonable pace. That still leaves Reagor as a late first round pick in super-flex rookie drafts.

2.10

The Pick: Justin Herbert, QB

I actually had to go back and double check our rookie ADP data, listing Justin Herbert as the current 2.10 rookie pick. It was correct, but it’s just not right. The good news is Herbert seems assured of being a top-six NFL Draft pick, presumably the next quarterback of the Chargers or Dolphins, both solid landing spots for a rookie passer. The issue is simply the positional value combined with the depth of this rookie class. Even with no tight ends to consider, late second rounders should be used on running backs or receivers.

Possible Pivots

Since I obviously don’t approve of grabbing Herbert with this pick, it is important to have an alternate plan. Most of the other players in this range are wide receivers and I’d strongly consider all over the signal caller. They include Michael Pittman, Antonio Gibson, KJ Hamler and Antonio Gandy Golden.

Trade Value

2.10, Tre’Quan Smith, 3.02 for Austin Hooper
2.10, 3.10 for 2.08
2.10, 1.02 for 1.06, 2.06, Daniel Jones

Super-Flex Options: Zack Moss, RB

Some were disappointed by the slow 40 time from Utah running back Zack Moss at the Combine, but that is who he is as a 5’9”, 223-pound grinder. Given the huge tier gap between the top-five rookie backs and the next in line, Moss has a chance to be over-drafted by a RB-needy team, even in the super-flex format.

3.10

The Pick: Lynn Bowden, WR

I’m going to do my best to be fair and balanced here, but as a Kentucky fan, it is difficult not to love everything about Lynn Bowden. Bowden entered 2019 as a solid, yet under the radar, receiver prospect. After multiple injuries at the quarterback position, Bowden was moved to a “Wildcat” position and all he did in eight games was rush for over 1,400 yards, leading the entire SEC. Now, Bowden faces the challenge of moving back to the receiver position but has already shown how versatile he can be on the field. If he is a day two pick, as many project, he won’t last until the late third round.

Possible Pivots

If Bowden is drafted earlier, as I suspect, some solid pivots include Anthony McFarland, Darrynton Evans and the eventual TE1. Both Cole Kmet and Albert Okwuegbunam are both coming off the board in this range.

Trade Value

3.10, Emmanuel Sanders for 2.11, Tyrell Williams
3.10, DeVante Parker for Robert Woods, Josh Reynolds
3.10, 3.11, 4.09 for 3.04, 4.04

Super-Flex Options: Darrynton Evans, RB

In a bit of a fluke, Appalachian State’s Darrynton Evans actually has a higher ADP in super-flex mocks than he does in the single-QB format. Regardless, Evans is a solid dart throw in the late third round of any format. He has every-down skills, though will likely be slotted as a third-down back.

4.10

The Pick: Adam Trautman, TE

Coming out of Dayton, not a lot is known about tight end Adam Trautman, but he has still done enough to put himself in the conversation to be the top drafted at his position. He has the size to stay in and block but is also a natural pass-catcher. Trautman will need to land in an ideal spot to be roster-worthy early in his career.

Possible Pivots

Other end of draft targets include Quintez Cephus, KJ Hill, James Proche and Gabriel Davis.

Super-Flex Options: DeeJay Dallas, RB

Most seem to think former Hurricanes running back DeeJay Dallas was not quite ready for the league, but he made the jump anyway. After all, Dallas was a high school quarterback who made the move to wideout before settling at running back. He’s got plenty of room for growth but it remains to be seen if he’ll have the necessary time to improve in the league.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.