The Power of Pessimism
It feels good to be right and nail all of your sleepers and late-round rookie draft steals. It feels equally awful to completely whiff on player evaluations, and waste first-round rookie picks year after year.
As a general guideline to life, most experts agree that keeping an upbeat, positive attitude is one of the best ways to live a happy life. But we’re talking about fantasy football. If your week-to-week decision making isn’t giving you ulcers, you’re probably not caring enough.
Looking at things through rose-colored glasses isn’t going to help you in fantasy football. You need to look at the worst-case scenario at all times — especially in deep leagues. Luckily for you, I’m just the negative, angst-riddled, glass-is-half-empty pessimist the doctor ordered. So sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride down the rabbit hole of misery I use to build winning fantasy football teams.
The Injury Bug
Do you know what’s better than handcuffing your players? Grabbing the handcuffs for other teams’ players. You not only hurt your opponents when they lose a stud player with no one to fill that void, but you gain a valuable trade piece or bye week fill-in. There is no way to predict injuries accurately, but using tools like https://sportsinjurypredictor.com can give you a little leg up on picking who to target and avoid.
For example, I previously wrote about the value of the 2018 quarterback class heading into the 2019 season. One thing I mentioned there was how Nick Foles has never played more than 13 games in any of his seven NFL seasons. And guess what? Foles was the first quarterback we lost to significant injury this season. I may have picked the wrong back-up to target, but the thought process was right.
Looking for the bad things can be helpful in situations like this, as Gardiner Minshew was free at draft time. He likely cost you a decent chunk of your FAAB if you waited to snatch him up post-Foles’ injury.
You can target aging players too. Dynasty can be a ageist’s dream, always flipping aging veterans to contenders for young assets. Having recently turned 40, I can attest that your body can turn on you quickly once you get into your 30’s.
By week two this season we already saw Ben Roethlisberger (37) and Drew Brees (40) succumb to significant injuries. Mason Rudolph and Teddy Bridgewater could have been had on the cheap most of the off-season.
How many more hits can Aaron Rodgers (35), Philip Rivers (37), and Tom Brady (42) take? It costs almost nothing to secure the services of Tim Boyle, Tyrod Taylor, and Jarrett Stidham right now. Quit holding the bottom of your bench hostage waiting for Kendrick Bourne or Jeremy McNichols to break out.
Nobody wants to see players get hurt, but thinking through who is most likely to get injured can give your team a leg up over your opponents. This is particularly true early in the year as NFL’s injured reserve list builds up throughout the season. Be a step ahead of your league-mates and use the inevitable bad news to your advantage.
Be Contrarian
It can be beneficial to zig when everybody else zags. Everyone loved Darrell Henderson during the off-season. Then he received three-percent of the snaps in week one and no snaps in week two, while Malcolm Brown saw 27% and 36%, respectively. Brown turned those snaps into 100 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns. Brown was virtually free while Henderson crept into the first round of rookie drafts.
When the Tyreek Hill-related drama unfolded in the off-season, people were quick to target another rookie, Mecole Hardman. Through three games Hardman has looked good. He would have even better numbers if the NFL and it’s referees weren’t busy trying to make football as unwatchable as possible. The cost to acquire him, however, was significantly higher than third-year receiver Demarcus Robinson.
In Hill’s absence, Robinson has emerged as the apparent No. 2 option in the league’s best passing attack.
The Dallas Cowboys entered the year with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup as their projected 1-2 punch at receiver. While Cooper has a checkered past regarding injuries, and Gallup was a target for many, Gallup was the first to suffer an early injury.
With the uninspiring corps of Randall Cobb, Cedrick Wilson and Tavon Austin backing them up, big-play threat and forgotten man Devin Smith stepped up to fill the void in Big D. Smith was literally zero percent owned everywhere. Nothing pleases a true pessimist more than to see that.
It’s in your best interest to tinker with the bottom of your rosters. A dart throw on Robinson or Smith might have the potential to punch your ticket to the playoffs while stashing Alfred Blue has done nothing for you thus far.
Worst Case Scenario
It’s easy to dream of everything breaking right for your players. It’s not so easy to routinely imagine the worst-case scenario for everyone in the NFL. I foolishly channeled the last bit of optimism I had left in my body to imagine a world where Eli Manning would survive through the Giants’ week 11 bye. What a dope I am. I wasted a roster spot on Eli and could have used it for someone, well, anyone really.
Each season, several established starters lose their jobs. Early in the year, it’s worth finding out who might be next in line and snatch up the backups who may be in a position to shine.
Kyle Shanahan uses his running backs in versatile ways. In hindsight, knowing the injury histories of Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon, and Matt Breida, why didn’t I use those Eli roster spots on the Raheem Mosterts and Jeff Wilsons of the world? I wasn’t focusing on the negatives, that’s why. A real pessimist would have seen this situation coming from a mile away.
During week two, we saw Mostert, Wilson, and Breida all finish within the top-13 among running backs in standard scoring. The worst-case scenario here already paid dividends two weeks into the year.
Cam Newton has been routinely banged up the last few seasons; his playing style lends itself to it. A crafty pessimist would have anticipated something going wrong sooner rather than later and faded all Panthers aside from the fantasy juggernaut that is Christian McCaffrey.
Cam came into the year with a wonky foot and dinged-up shoulder, and lo and behold, here we are looking at a Cam-less Panthers team for what may be the remainder of the season. Use your fine-tuned negativity to avoid these situations altogether, especially in redraft.
In dynasty, you have the beginnings of a buy-low window on players like DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel, among others.
Another early problem that could have been easily avoided was OJ Howard in Tampa Bay. I mentioned in an earlier article that Arians’ history in the NFL didn’t inspire me to buy into the Bucs offense this off-season, notably Howard.
Josh Brickner took a more in-depth look at the problems here.
The red flags were everywhere, and I’m not talking about the team helmets. Most people chose to focus on all the positives and got hyped up by Arians’ arrival. Meanwhile, if you concentrated on the negatives surrounding the tight ends in Arians’ offenses and faded Howard at his ADP (an inflated 68th overall), your team would likely be stronger today for it.
Come to the Dark Side
While it’s easy to look back with the gift of hindsight regarding injuries, it doesn’t mean you can’t make educated guesses based on player’s histories. Injury-prone players tend to have it baked into their prices on draft day. Even with the discount, why deal with the potential headaches of owning Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert? You can get their back-ups or other productive players cheaper.
Follow team beat writers on Twitter. Consume as much information as you possibly can, and look for the little clues as to who may be seeing a reduced role on teams. It’s not difficult to see into the fantasy football crystal ball and grab a handful of backups a week or two before they take a starters job — especially in IDP leagues.
Rely on common sense too. I bet you can tell me your five worst running backs in the NFL pretty quick. The odds are good their respective NFL teams know they’re not very good too, and it’s reasonable to imagine other players eventually getting on the field in their place.
- How and Why to Trade Back in Your Rookie Draft - May 8, 2024
- 2024 Off-Season Mock Drafts: Early Draft Results Following the NFL Draft - May 4, 2024
- 2024 Off-Season Mock Drafts: Rookie Fallout From an NFL Mock Draft - April 20, 2024
