2019 Dynasty Rookie Drafts: Five Burning Questions

Ryan Finley

Some drafts are top heavy, and some are more balanced, but nearly every draft has a surprising superstar waiting in the later rounds. With all the pieces in place, we picked the brains of the DLF staff with Five Burning Draft Questions to get some more perspective about how they each feel about the draft and the players within.

Let’s get to the questions.

Question #1: With what we know today, is this a draft you want to invest in any further, or would you prefer to try to “get out” if you can?

I don’t think you should get out at this point for the price you will get. This draft is not inspiring confidence and other than Superflex and Kyler Murray, the prices being paid for picks from this year are uninspiring. It is almost better to take the chance at this point – some of these players will be good starters. – Dwight Peebles (Twitter DLF Profile)

I’m never a fan in general of ‘getting out’. To me, it’s entirely dependent on your team. If you’re in a rebuild, I don’t know how you can not want pieces in this draft. If you’re a contender and one piece away? I get it. – Michael Moore (TwitterDLF Profile)

I’m always interested in where you can buck the trend, so I’ve been seriously considering opportunities to buy in. There are a few spots that are nice – early second (12-16) and early third (24-30) – where I think you can get a quality prospect for either an “older asset” or a bunch of smallish ones. – Tan Ho (TwitterDLF Profile)

I love investing in this class. It’s cheaper than I can ever remember, and I feel confident in a handful of these players. Adam Wilde (TwitterDLF Profile)

I’m buying because most people are down on the draft, making the buy-in prices decent. – Bobby Koch (TwitterDLF Profile)

There are some really smart bets in this class, but next year’s dart throws in rounds two through four are more likely to bear fruit than the same rounds this year. That said, I traded a 2020 third for a 2019 fourth to pick up Devine Ozigbo, since I am rebuilding that roster, and I have 2020 and 2021 picks to spare. This was essentially a trade up into a late pick in this draft, but worth it under the circumstances since RBs are very difficult to come by in that 14-teamer.

In other leagues where I both realistically hope to contend for the playoffs this year and where the talent pool is not spread quite as thin (i.e., in 12-team leagues), I’m content to largely sit this one out. – NP Merrill (TwitterDLF Profile)

I don’t love this draft as a whole, but there are places throughout that I want to invest in. The top of the draft, especially in superflex, is interesting, as I think N’Keal Harry and Kyler Murray are both excellent prospects and I expect the top three running backs in Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs, and David Montgomery to all accrue value in year one.

After they are off the board I’m trying to trade back, and I really like some of the options, particularly at running back, starting in the mid to late second round and throughout the rest of the draft. – Noah Hills (TwitterDLF Profile)

To “get out” of this draft as soon as possible seems a little harsh to me. You can’t really expect Marquise Brown or N’Keal Harry to become as productive as Julio Jones or DeAndre Hopkins right away.

With that said, I do enjoy a great deal of the talent from this draft class. Kyler Murray is extremely intriguing in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, the top receiving talent is outstanding, and there’s a great deal of pass rushing talent to pick up on. Two top ten talents in the interior (Quinnen Williams and Ed Oliver) being selected is quite rare, and that’s without mentioning players like Nick Bosa, Brian Burns, and Josh Allen also being available. – Johnny Kinsley (TwitterDLF Profile)

The perception of the 2019 NFL Draft class is that it caters more non-fantasy football positions such as the offensive and defensive line. There is some truth to that perception, but the depth at the running back and wide receiver position are equally impressive. This is a draft I want to invest in. – Eric Moody (TwitterDLF Profile)

Neither really. If there’s value on the board where I’m picking, then I’m perfectly happy to keep taking it. The skill positions are certainly shallow but there’s plenty of depth at edge rusher and defensive interior. In the leagues I play in, those are providing me good picks up until the seventh round of rookie drafts. – Tom Kislingbury (TwitterDLF Profile)

I like the perspectives we got out of this question. It was a very good point that several writers made here – it’s not a good value to try to “get out” of this draft, but it may be a very good value to get in. I’ve found myself dabbling in this draft but making no attempts to go all-in.

Question #2: What’s your favorite overall position to target in this year’s draft?

Tight ends. I love this tight end class even beyond Noah Fant and TJ Hockenson. Foster Moreau, Dawson Knox, Josh Oliver, Kahale Warring, Jace Sternberger – all had favorable landing spots and I am targeting them aggressively. – Dwight Peebles (Twitter DLF Profile)

Probably cliche but tight end. Not only do you have multiple elite prospects at the top but several tight ends went pretty high in the real draft. That bodes well for their fantasy prospects where I’m getting someone like Dawson Knox in the fifth of rookie drafts even though he went in the third of the actual draft. – Michael Moore (TwitterDLF Profile)

Tight ends is ++ EV right now – there are so many plus athletes with ~third round NFL draft capital who I’d take in that early third pocket. – Tan Ho (TwitterDLF Profile)

I’d like to target the big three running backs, in Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, and Miles Sanders, but WR is where the value is this year. – Adam Wilde (TwitterDLF Profile)

Wide receiver. – Bobby Koch (TwitterDLF Profile)

I only play superflex in dynasty, so QBs are always a focus. This was not a deep class by any stretch in the QB department, unfortunately. It’s a good TE class, but running back is my favorite position to study and target this year. There are some gems in the top three, and some diamonds in the proverbial rough in later rounds.

Dexter Williams comes to mind as one who might carve out a role and has the talent and situation to surpass his current ADP. I enjoy speculating at RB in particular, mainly due to positional scarcity. Phillip Lindsay off the waiver wire in one league and drafted very late in another won several games for me last year. That was very fun, and I’m hoping one or two of several late-round RBs might do the same for me this year. – NP Merrill (TwitterDLF Profile)

Definitely running back. This class isn’t top-heavy, but it’s deep and flat, and talented guys with workhorse profiles like Dexter Williams, Alexander Mattison, Ty Johnson, and Devine Ozigbo can all be had in the later rounds of the draft if they’re drafted at all. Darrell Henderson’s current ADP is also several picks lower than it should be considering his combination of talent, landing spot, and potential opportunity. – Noah Hills (TwitterDLF Profile)

This is between wide receiver and defensive tackle for me. I’d give the edge to receiver since it is a more important position. I’m a big fan of Marquise Brown, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Miles Boykin, and DK Metcalf; all four impressed me when I sat down and watched their tape. – Johnny Kinsley (TwitterDLF Profile)

Wide receiver is my favorite overall position to target. There were so many great wide receivers selected on day two and beyond who could go on to have productive NFL and fantasy football careers. – Eric Moody (TwitterDLF Profile)

Edge – pretty easily. Clelin Ferrell, LJ Collier, Chase Winovich and Brian Burns are all lasting way later than I think they should. I’ve been stocking up. – Tom Kislingbury (TwitterDLF Profile)

I expected the answers here to be a little more vanilla, as to me tight end is clearly the strongest position in this draft. But our writers do make good points that the draft does not stop there. There is talent at every position.

Question #3: What player outside the top five would you trade up to get if they started to fall?

Noah Fant is one I am trying to grab later in the first round, but beyond that – if Parris Campbell is falling, I am trying to trade up cheaply to grab him. I believe he will quickly establish a role in Indianapolis. – Dwight Peebles (Twitter DLF Profile)

Does Parris Campbell count? Taken in the second round, he immediately becomes an important piece of a pass-heavy offense. And potentially a TY Hilton replacement. – Michael Moore (TwitterDLF Profile)

I’m hammering offers for Andy Isabella at around pick 1.10 and later. – Tan Ho (TwitterDLF Profile)

If Parris Campell is falling, I’m all over it. – Adam Wilde (TwitterDLF Profile)

Parris Campbell. – Bobby Koch (TwitterDLF Profile)

A trade up to grab a share in either Noah Fant or TJ Hockenson makes a ton of sense to me. Even in non-TE premium formats, if either of these widely-acclaimed (and for good reason) prospects fell into the second round, I’d happily solve any tight end woes I might have by paying up. Both Fant and Hockenson also boast the hype, draft capital and sweet landing spot to make them easy to flip for fun and profit, so even if I’m all set at TE, which I never seem to be, trading up here would be a no-brainer. – NP Merrill (TwitterDLF Profile)

If I’m sitting at the end of the first round and DK Metcalf falls past the 1.05 or 1.06, I would be trying hard to put together an offer to move up a couple of slots and take him. I’d also be targeting picks anywhere from the 1.11 through the top of the second round in order to land Darrell Henderson. – Noah Hills (TwitterDLF Profile)

There’s not much competition for the X receiver in the Ravens offense, and they have two of my favorite receivers from this class (Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin). From a talent perspective, I wouldn’t hesitate to scoop up Brown if/when he falls. He’s worth the risk even with the Lisfranc injury.

If Brian Burns falls, scoop him up as well. I don’t know if he’ll have an instant impact, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him rack up a few monster statistical performances in his rookie season in Carolina. He’s awesome. – Johnny Kinsley (TwitterDLF Profile)

I would trade up to draft Parris Campbell. He has the play speed to attack defenses vertically and the versatility to be used in the slot and on the outside. TY Hilton will command defensive attention and Campbell is in a great position to see a high number of targets as a result. – Eric Moody (TwitterDLF Profile)

JJ Arcega-Whiteside. He’s dropping seemingly because of the crowded depth chart in Philly but I’m taking advantage. I think he could easily have the same dynasty value arc as Chris Godwin – play sparingly but impress. When he gets a starting job, his value will just explode. – Tom Kislingbury (TwitterDLF Profile)

Many of our writers would love to grab Campbell if given the opportunity. It’s no surprise, as whoever the Colts drafted at the position would likely be a target, but a 4.31 40 speedster with second-round draft capital? Yes, please.

Question #4: What players are you avoiding altogether in this draft?

AJ Brown, I am leary of the landing spot for the most part. Love the talent but I can’t trust Marcus Mariota to support him. Corey Davis, Adam Humphries and Brown will all leech off each other. – Dwight Peebles (Twitter DLF Profile)

AJ Brown, which is too bad because I was high on him before the draft. But his landing spot is one of the worst. – Michael Moore (TwitterDLF Profile)

Mecole Hardman is my number one avoid – fast prospects with bad profiles are so often overdrafted by NFL teams that I can’t move him up more than two tiers in my estimation. That puts him in the ~20-24 range next to Diontae Johnson, who is much better priced. – Tan Ho (TwitterDLF Profile)

I’m avoiding Darrell Henderson. He’s an exceptional prospect, but for a first round pick, I do not want to gamble on the Rams’ backfield right now. – Adam Wilde (TwitterDLF Profile)

Devin Singletary (at least at cost). – Bobby Koch (TwitterDLF Profile)

Even players who have a troubling history of injury (Rodney Anderson, Bryce Love), off-field issues (Preston Williams), poor production (Riley Ridley), inexperience at their current position (Jalen Hurd), a sub-par combine performance (Benny Snell, Riley Ridley), a dearth of draft capital (Kelvin Harmon), or less-than-ideal landing spot (Ridley, Darrell Henderson) can sometimes turn things around or overcome daunting odds. These players are worth rostering in deep leagues if they can be acquired at the right price. I think of players with multiple strikes against them as safe to avoid, so, yeah: it’s unlikely I’ll be investing in Riley Ridley. – NP Merrill (TwitterDLF Profile)

I will have no Devin Singletary on any of my teams. His ADP isn’t out of control, but I just won’t be taking a small, unathletic back with questionable receiving chops who failed to post efficient numbers in Conference USA, nevermind the fact that he landed on the Bills. I’m also probably avoiding much of the second tier of wide receivers.

After N’Keal Harry, DK Metcalf, Parris Campbell, and AJ Brown are off the board, I’m much more comfortable trading back and selecting an upside running back than I am rolling the dice on guys like Marquise Brown, JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Mecole Hardman, and Deebo Samuel who I don’t view as having incredibly complete profiles. – Noah Hills (TwitterDLF Profile)

I would not draft Clelin Ferrell. I don’t think he’s nearly as good as the Raiders think he is, and he was incredibly overdrafted. He needs a lot of work on his bend and speed, though I do enjoy his quick first step.

I’m also avoiding drafting any rookie quarterback, with the possible exception of Kyler Murray if you can get him late. Rookies tend not to do so well statistically, so I’d probably wait until 2020 to consider drafting a signal caller from this class. – Johnny Kinsley (TwitterDLF Profile)

There isn’t a particular player I would avoid altogether, but I would avoid drafting certain players at their current average draft position. One player who immediately comes to mind is TJ Hockenson. Few tight ends selected in the first round of the NFL Draft since the year 2000 have been productive in fantasy football. I’d rather target the tight end position in the second round or beyond in rookie drafts. – Eric Moody (TwitterDLF Profile)

Hakeem Butler and Kelvin Harmon. It seems clear to me that we as a dynasty community vastly overvalued them both. And now we’re stubbornly trying to prove ourselves right by drafting them higher than they should be taken. It reminds me of Equanimeous St. Brown a year ago when scores of dynasty owners were convinced St. Brown would walk into training camp and win a starting job. – Tom Kislingbury (TwitterDLF Profile)

Price and landing spot seem to be big factors here. Few seem excited about AJ Brown in Tennessee, and the price of Devin Singletary is too high for some.

Question #5: If you could leave this draft with one player from the second round or later, who would it be?

I have tried to get Darwin Thompson in every draft – love the fact he ended up in Kansas City. I don’t expect him to usurp Damien Williams this year but he will be the starting RB in KC. – Dwight Peebles (Twitter DLF Profile)

JJ Arcega-Whiteside. He won’t produce this year as he’s part of a crowded receiving corps. But come 2020, he could be in line for a big role. Getting him outside the first is a value. – Michael Moore (TwitterDLF Profile)

Andy Isabella is technically second round, so that’s A1 – but also any of Kahale Warring/Dawson Knox/Josh Oliver after ~24. – Tan Ho (TwitterDLF Profile)

My second round or later player is Justice Hill. I think his ability to contribute right away is being missed. I think his price is right, in the early to mid second. I also think his future with Lamar Jackson is sky high. – Adam Wilde (TwitterDLF Profile)

Can I say Parris Campbell again? If not, JJ Arcega-Whiteside. – Bobby Koch (TwitterDLF Profile)

I can see the winless 2019 New York Giants losing to the Cardinals at home in week seven when Patrick Peterson returns from his PED suspension, angry and fresh, and picks six against a flailing Eli Manning. Demand for Daniel Jones to start will reach fever pitch. The end of the Eli era is nigh. Even if the Giants have won a game or two on the strong back and legs of Saquon Barkley, Dave Gettleman will succumb to the massive self-inflicted pressure to prove he was right to take Jones at sixth overall in the NFL draft and send him into the fray.

Jones will start, if not by week eight then soon thereafter. Did I mention I only play superflex? With talented weapons around him, I think he can produce enough to be my bye week fill-in, serve as trade bait to QB-needy teams, or maybe even allow me to trade away a more proven QB to bolster my depth or fill a hole at another position. Spending a second round rookie draft pick to snag a guaranteed starting QB is easy-peasy in superflex. – NP Merrill (TwitterDLF Profile)

Once the third round starts, I’m not taking the chance that Devine Ozigbo makes it to the fourth. He was my number two ranked back in this class pre-draft and I think he fits the Mark Ingram role with the Saints perfectly. Latavius Murray is there, but injuries happen, and I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that Ozigbo just beats out Murray for the right to play Robin to Alvin Kamara’s Batman before this season is over. I’m leaving every draft with Ozigbo. – Noah Hills (TwitterDLF Profile)

I could not believe that Greedy Williams fell to the Browns at pick #46. His coverage ability is insane and he’d provide ample opportunities to rack up pass disruptions and interceptions. Tackling is of course a much bigger issue in IDP leagues than it is for a CB’s overall purpose though.

That’s one consideration, but I might go with Deebo Samuel. From a skill set perspective, I’m not a huge fan, but in terms of his fit in Kyle Shanahan’s offense his speed, usage underneath and yards after the catch are perfect. Parris Campbell is similar in that regard for the Colts, and depending on what happens to Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson you should keep an eye on JJ Arcega-Whiteside as well. – Johnny Kinsley (TwitterDLF Profile)

Kelvin Harmon would be the one player from the second round or later I’d be ecstatic if I could leave the rookie with. He has very good body control and the ability to win contested catches. Harmon’s stock cratered after a subpar NFL Combine, but his only competition for meaningful snaps and targets is Josh Doctson. This is a position battle he can win. – Eric Moody (TwitterDLF Profile)

JJ Arcega-Whiteside. He’s just my perfect idea of a taxi squad stash and great value. – Tom Kislingbury (TwitterDLF Profile)

Almost every writer had a different answer here, which I think is a good microcosm of this draft. We all know there is a later round gem or two, but we disagree on who it might be. I like the Deebo Samuel and JJ Arcega-Whiteside types, but I might grab like Irv Smith Jr. Folks are so focused on the first two, that you may get a top ten TE on the cheap.