Sunday Morning Huddle: Week Five
Let’s face it, there’s an enormous amount of information out there on Sunday mornings. We’re not going to waste your time by repeating the news and notes about who’s in or out this week, since that’s really not what you visit us for. We’re also not going to do another article on starts or sits this week – we already have the personalized lineup advice for you on the premium content. Again, there are 100 places you can go for that, so no reason to repeat ourselves or others.
The Sunday Morning Huddle goes through each game and states what we’re looking to see from a dynasty perspective. One player will be picked from each team who has dynasty value tied to the game – players at a pivot point where their value could increase or decrease based on opportunity and performance.
Early Games
Tennessee at Buffalo
The Titans defense allows over 42 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers and if the Bills can somehow match those numbers, it will be good news for veteran receiver Kelvin Benjamin. Once valued as a top 15 option at his position, Benjamin is sporting weekly finishes of WR93, WR55, WR69, and WR84 so far this season. Regardless of that, he continues to be the top option for rookie quarterback Josh Allen as Benjamin leads the team with 21 targets on the season.
The Titans running game has been a major disappointment this season. The team signed free agent Dion Lewis to give themselves a versatile duo but both Lewis and Derrick Henry have struggled this year. Neither back has yet to eclipse 75 rushing yards in any game. Henry has been especially bad, with a season-high finish of RB41. The Titans are no lock to go into Buffalo and control the game but the Bills do allow the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs and if there was a game Henry would get it going, it would be this one.
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New York Giants at Carolina
This week, we finally heard a player, specifically wide receiver Odell Beckham, voice the same frustration that Giants fans and fantasy players have been cantankerous about for a couple of years now, the play of quarterback Eli Manning. Beckham is off to a slow start, currently ranking as the WR22 through the first month. With Beckham’s grumbles, perhaps the Giants force the issue and either attempt to push the ball down the field or even consider replacing Manning.
After the Panthers bye week, I am hoping to see rookie receiver D.J. Moore earn a big spike in playing time and production. Moore’s snap rate nearly doubled from 25% in week one and two to 49% in week three, though his counting stats didn’t match the playing time. Moore overtook Jarius Wright in playing time and Torrey Smith should be next in his sights.
Miami at Cincinnati
The Dolphins currently employ two of the more disappointing players in the league, wide receiver DeVante Parker and running back Kenyan Drake. While each can be blamed for their lack of production but some of the blame falls on their coaching staff as well. Parker is once again questionable with a quad injury. He’s missed some practice time this week though head coach Adam Gase has hinted that Parker will play. Gase also chimed in on his backfield, suggesting Drake and veteran Frank Gore would continue to split the work. That’s a major issue for fantasy owners counting on Drake to be their RB2. I’ll be watching this week and every week to see if either of these players can overcome their early-season woes.
Things change quickly in the NFL. Just a week ago, veteran running back Giovani Bernard was a reliable fantasy starter and tight end Tyler Eifert was slowly regaining the confidence of fantasy players. Now, both players are injured, leaving an expanded role for a pair of relative unknowns. With sophomore back Joe Mixon expected back, rookie Mark Walton will serve as the top backup running back and should see a much larger role. Meanwhile, tight end CJ Uzomah should be the next man up at the tight end spot.
Baltimore at Cleveland
The Ravens starting back Alex Collins has been another disappointing back this season and has been nursing a knee injury over the past week. The biggest concern for Collins though is a pair of lost fumbles that have already cost him a goal-line role. The beneficiary will be running back Javorius Allen, who has outscored Collins and currently ranks as the RB19 on the season. Although Collins will likely retain the majority of the rushing work, Allen has nearly double the targets and third down opportunities, while each has ten touches inside the red zone. The numbers inside the five-yard line are really where the stark contrast is displayed. While Collins has four touches for four yards and a fumble, Allen has turned his four touches into four yards and three touchdowns.
It has been an odd start to the career of rookie running back Nick Chubb. In a close game with the Raiders last week, Chubb saw his usual limited usage, including six snaps and three carries. He turned those three carries into two long touchdown runs and a top 12 fantasy finish. Browns head coach Hue Jackson later suggested he needed to get Chubb more carries. Hopefully, he follows through on this idea.
Green Bay at Detroit
Lions rookie running back Kerryon Johnson has been the lone bright spot of the Detroit backfield committee. Johnson has produced with 5.4 yards per carry or better over the past three games, resulting in 199 yards on just 33 carries. This would seem to be a path to a true fantasy breakout season except for one thing, the coaching staff. Lions head coach Matt Patricia, a Bill Belichick disciple, explained this week that Johnson’s dozen touches per game are enough. This could remain just as frustrating for the remainder of the season.
Last week, Packers veteran receiver Randall Cobb missed the game, which led to increased opportunity for Geronimo Allison and rookie Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Unfortunately, Allison suffered a concussion and did not practice all week. He’s most likely out today, as is Cobb once again. This misfortune is good news for Valdes-Scantling, along with at least one of his fellow rookies (Equanimeous St. Brown, J’Mon Moore) who should see a major spike in playing time. St. Brown has yet to take an offensive snap while Moore has played 11 snaps on the year. With Cobb hobbled and struggling, this could be the opportunity these rookies need to earn a full-time role.
Jacksonville at Kansas City
Week four was frustrating for Leonard Fournette fantasy owners. After missing a pair of games with a hamstring injury, Fournette was forced to exit the game early when the injury flared up. Now, he’s out again and it is unclear when we should expect him back. Veteran running back TJ Yeldon will draw the start and could become the type of player that changes the landscape of fantasy leagues. Yeldon is already the RB11 on the season and has at least two games coming with a heavy workload. That begins with this game against the Chiefs, who allow over 39 fantasy points per game to running backs, the highest in the league.
The Chiefs have had it fairly easy so far this season, putting up points as defenses just throw up their hands in wonder. This week, the face the toughest D in the league, the Jaguars, who allow a league-low 14 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Not surprisingly, Jacksonville is also top three in the league in fantasy points allowed to receivers and tight ends. While this impacts essentially the entire Chiefs offense, I am most interested in learning if breakout quarterback Patrick Mahomes can continue his torrid pace of touchdown passes and fantasy finishes.
Denver at New York Jets
It has been a disappointing first month for Jets receiver Robby Anderson. After a breakout season that saw him finish as the WR18, Anderson has been a non-factor in the first month, playing with rookie quarterback Sam Darnold. Anderson has yet to finish inside the top 49 fantasy receivers in any week but he has seen his targets increase from just one in the opener to a season-high six last week. With a three-game losing streak including dropping games with the Dolphins and Browns, head coach Todd Bowles’ job is on the line. Desperate for a win and with Quincy Enunwa dealing with a hip injury, it could be a long-awaited big game for Anderson.
The backfield battle between rookies Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman continues to be captivating. Fantasy players have strong rooting interests in this committee with half spending a first-round rookie pick on Freeman and the other enjoying one of the best experiences in dynasty football, witnessing a waiver wire pickup turn into a fantasy starter. Heading into this week five game, Broncos head coach Vance Joseph said he wanted to get Freeman more touches. Freeman matched a season-low with just eight carries last week yet produced his season-high of 12.7 fantasy points, thanks for 67 rushing yards and a score.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Steelers running back and Le’Veon Bell replacement James Conner began the season in the best possible way, totaling nearly 200 yards, scoring a pair of touchdowns and finishing as the RB2 for the week. Since then, Conner has finished as RB8, RB22 and RB31. Not only have his fantasy results declined, but his yardage and opportunity have as well. After 192 yards from scrimmage in week one, Conner has totaled just 204 yards in the next three games combined. Conner saw a massive 36 touches in the opener. While it was clear that number was too high, it is disappointing that over the past three games, he’s totaled 45 touches. With Bell trade rumors continuing, Conner needs to get back to his very early season form.
The Falcons will welcome back starting running back Devonta Freeman in this expected high-scoring matchup with the Steelers. Freeman has missed the past three games though his backup Tevin Coleman failed to capitalize on the increased playing time. This means Freeman should go back to his role as the lead back. In 2016, Freeman played 58% of the snaps and that number dropped to 54% last season. In week one, Freeman played 56% of the team’s offensive plays.
Late Games
Oakland at Los Angeles Chargers
Wide receiver Travis Benjamin returned to the field last week but was forced to leave the game after reinjuring his foot. He’s now out indefinitely, which should benefit second-year receiver Mike Williams. In the two weeks Benjamin initially missed, Williams caught six balls for 108 yards and three touchdowns. That was enough to boost his dynasty value but to maintain or even grow that value, Williams needs to show consistency in his bottom line.
One of the most surprising stories of the season’s first month is the performance of Raiders veteran tight end Jared Cook, who already has a pair of overall TE1 finishes on the season. Cook leads all tight ends with 370 yards. Only nine wide receivers have more through four games. The question dynasty players face is how to value Cook over the long-term. Already 31 years-old, Cook has seemingly little long-term upside but as the position has been wiped out due to injuries, we are forced to quickly reevaluate the position and key contributors. It is certainly not crazy to consider Cook a top-ten dynasty tight end.
Minnesota at Philadelphia
The Eagles will be playing without running back Darren Sproles again this week and Corey Clement is also very questionable. This could mean another significant opportunity for Wendell Smallwood, who finished as the RB10 in week three when he was given 13 touches. I don’t view Smallwood as a high-upside long-term play but with so many injuries in the Philly backfield, he is a player to monitor.
Vikings starting running back Dalvin Cook is once again out for week five. After missing week three, Cook returned last week but played sparingly. It is clear his injured hamstring wasn’t fully healthy. His absence gives veteran Latavius Murray another week as the starter. After playing surprisingly well in 2017, Murray has flopped this year with a season-high fantasy finish of RB39 but with a growing concern about Cook’s status, Murray becomes an important player for the Vikings and fantasy players.
Arizona at San Francisco
The Cardinals fared better after their quarterback change to rookie Josh Rosen last week but they still lost the game. With veteran wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald hobbled with back and hamstring injuries, rookie Christian Kirk could continue to see his role grow. Kirk’s season-high in playing time was actually week one though he remains one of the exciting players in this offense for dynasty owners to focus on each week.
With running back Matt Breida and wide receivers Marquise Goodwin and Dante Pettis in danger of missing this matchup against the Cardinals, tight end George Kittle will have a chance to solidify himself not only as the top target for the 49ers but one of the top tight ends in the dynasty game. Kittle is currently the TE6 and also ranks among the top six in receptions, yards and air yards.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle
The Rams offense is a unique one, not only because of their high-scoring prowess but also because of the few players all of these fantasy points are spread across. Running back Todd Gurley doesn’t have a relevant backup and while it can be difficult to project each week which of the trio of top receivers will be the alpha, there are no surprise fourth or fifth options in the passing game. They rarely use the tight end and Brandin Cooks, Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are the only receivers to even catch a pass. In fact, only one ball has been thrown to a receiver other than that trio. That makes this offense fun and highly bankable.
The Seahawks are expected to have running back Chris Carson back on the field though head coach Pete Carroll has suggested we could see a three-man committee. After Carson was a late scratch in week four, veteran Mike Davis served as the workhorse, not rookie Rashaad Penny as most expected. This is not only bad news for Penny but also for Carson, who, according to Carroll, will lose touches to Davis.
Sunday Night
Dallas at Houston
Last week, I told you I was looking forward to the debut of Texans rookie receiver Keke Coutee. No one expected what we saw, which included a ridiculous 15 targets, 11 receptions and 109 yards. Those numbers were boosted, in part, by the in-game loss of receiver Will Fuller. Both receivers have been called questionable for this game but are expected to suit up. Now that we’ve seen Coutee can be a key contributor, I want to see if he can come close to replicating that performance when Fuller is fully healthy.
The Cowboys wide receiver depth chart has been a disaster all season long. This week, Dallas placed veteran Terrance Williams on the injured reserve list with a foot injury. This should allow for more playing time for other key receivers, namely rookie Michael Gallup. Gallup entered the season with huge expectations from fantasy players. He failed to live up to those, or to even get close. In week four, Gallup hit modest season-highs in snap rate (58%), targets (five), receptions (two) and yardage (45) and the increase could continue with Williams done for the year.
Monday Night
Washington at New Orleans
To the surprise of almost no one, Redskins wide receiver Josh Doctson is hurt again. Doctson is dealing with a heel injury and is not expected to play this week. Redskins coach Jay Gruden suggested if Doctson misses time, it would be receiver Maurice Harris who replaces him. Although Harris is a player the Washington coaching staff has reportedly been high on for well over a year, he has no production to show for it. Harris got onto the field in week three but didn’t record a reception or even a target. I’m not ready to have blind faith in this coach speak though I will be watching closely to see if Harris get significant playing time.
Veteran receiver Ted Ginn has already been ruled out for this week’s game with a knee injury. Ginn has been playing 61% of the snaps and averages over five targets per game. With Ginn out, rookie TreQuan Smith is expected to play a larger role. Smith was a trendy preseason favorite but has yet to get a real chance in the regular season. This could be the beginning of the Smith era in New Orleans.
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