Flash Forward: 2019 Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft
With the 2018 NFL Draft now in the books, it’s time to take an early look at the potential class of 2019. I’ve found that a “hit rate” of around 50% has become the norm in these early versions of Flash Forward mock drafts. That is caused by both disappointing performances as well as players returning to school rather than declaring for the NFL Draft. Regardless, projecting and studying the potential 2019 draft class can be a rewarding exercise for both dynasty and devy players alike.
Before we get to the picks, let’s take a quick glance at the overall strength of each position.
Quarterback
Based solely on draft capital, the 2018 rookie class of quarterbacks was the best in years, if not decades. Five signal callers were drafted in the opening round for the first time since 1999 and four of those five were chosen in the top ten. That’s the first time that has occurred since 1949!
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It would be foolish to predict a repeat in 2019, but that class does have depth going for it, just as the current group of rookies has. Among the potential first-round picks are Justin Herbert (Oregon), Drew Lock (Missouri), Jarrett Stidham (Auburn), Shea Patterson (Michigan) and Jake Bentley (South Carolina). None of these are currently viewed on the same level as Josh Rosen or Sam Darnold were a year ago, but it is likely a couple will emerge as day one choices. Regardless, none merit a selection early in typical rookie drafts.
Running Back
We have definitely been spoiled by the running back classes of 2017 and 2018. In fact, half of the current top 24 running backs based on our latest dynasty ADP data come from those two classes. A year away, the 2019 running back class looks like one that will serve as a major letdown after the past two seasons. The class does sport some solid depth, assuming the majority of draft-eligible players make the leap, but the players included will be valued as depth rather than immediate impact players. First rounds in the class of 2017 and 2018 were dominated by the ball carriers, but next season we may only see three backs in the top 12.
Among the players who could fall to the second-round range but are still worthy of monitoring over the next year are Damien Harris (Alabama), Trayveon Williams (Texas A&M), Damarea Crockett (Missouri), Benny Snell (Kentucky), Mike Weber (Ohio State) and Devin Singletary (Florida Atlantic).
Wide Receiver
Speaking of being spoiled, each of the past few wideout classes has been unfairly compared to the historic group from 2014, which gave us over one-quarter of the current top 24 receivers, based on our dynasty ADP data. Because of this, we’ve been quite disappointed with the performances of players like Josh Doctson, Corey Davis and more. To make matters worse for the position, this has coincided with the revival of the running back position.
In 2019, expect the tide to turn once again as I expect this receiver group, both in top-tier talent and depth, to challenge the class of 2014. We’ll get to several of the key pieces soon, but others who could eventually challenge for a top 12 spot or at least offer amazing value in the later rounds of rookie drafts include David Sills (West Virginia), Michael Pittman (USC), Juwan Johnson (Penn State), Jaylen Smith (Louisville), Deebo Samuel (South Carolina), Tyrie Cleveland (Florida) and Demetris Robertson (California).
Tight End
As is often the case, there are few tight ends to be truly excited about this far out in the process. As we’ve seen in the past couple of seasons, I expect one or two tight ends to emerge as day two NFL Draft picks and second-round dynasty rookie picks. Some of those candidates include Isaac Nauta (Georgia), Caleb Wilson (UCLA) and Albert Okwuegbunam (Missouri).
Mock Draft
1. N’Keal Harry, WR Arizona State
Entering college as one of the top recruits of his class, Harry surprised with his decision to stay home and play for Arizona State. That decision will be put to the test this season as he suit up for new head coach Herm Edwards. Standing 6’4” and weight 220 pounds, Harry has the ideal frame to be a prototypical WR1 in the NFL and he has the college production that shows he is ready for that role. Harry saw over 100 targets in 2017 and broke the 1,000-yard plateau.
As if Harry’s size and physicality were not enough, he’s also dabbled in the run game with 16 career rush attempts and he even completed his only pass attempt last season for a touchdown. Although Harry is the early favorite to be the top pick in rookie drafts, most 2019 NFL mock drafts do not project him to be a first-rounder, let alone the top receiver drafted.
2. AJ Brown, WR Mississippi
In many cases, the honor of top receiver drafted, based on those “way too early” mocks, goes to Mississippi’s Brown, who enjoyed a breakout season in 2017. ESPN’s Mel Kiper agrees as he ranks Brown as the fourth best prospect overall and the top offensive player on his first 2019 Big Board. After a quiet freshman season, Brown dominated in 2017, averaging nearly 17 yards per reception and leading the SEC in receiving touchdowns and yards.
With his 6’1”, 225-pound frame, Brown boasts strong hands and physical play, though he does lack elite speed. He’s proven to be a handful for defenders, as shown by his 674 yards after the catch, which is second best among all returning receivers, per Pro Football Focus.
3. Dekaylin Metcalf, WR Mississippi
After their 2017 performances, the first two picks seem somewhat clear, but this one could be a stretch. At 6’4” and 225 pounds, Metcalf looks the part and most college football followers assumed it would be him, not Brown, who would serve as the alpha receiver for the Rebels.
A foot injury ended Metcalf’s freshman season, but not before he caught his only two receptions of the season for touchdowns. In his second season, Metcalf was healthy, but easily outclassed by Brown. I see room for both to put up big numbers and earn an early spot in rookie drafts. For that to happen, Metcalf must not only increase his production, but also improve his route running.
4. David Montgomery, RB Iowa State
As mentioned earlier, and as evidenced by the top three picks, we can expect another position swing in 2019. There are still some strong options at running back and in a group that has largely disappointed, Montgomery has separated himself as the clear top back in the class. He displayed all-around skills as both a runner to all parts of the field and an above-average pass-catcher.
Montgomery led the nation with 86 missed tackles forced despite battling an ankle injury for a large chunk of the season. He ended the year with nearly 1,400 total yards and 30% of his team’s yards and touchdowns. He’s currently projected to be an early day two pick in the NFL Draft.
5. Bryan Edwards, WR South Carolina
One of the youngest prospects in the class, Edwards played the majority of his freshman season as a 17-year-old. His junior season is off to a bad start as he suffered a shoulder injury during spring practice, though it is not expected to have any impact on the upcoming regular season.
Edwards has a strong build and his hands are considered one of his top assets, meaning he rarely drops a pass thrown his way. Once his teammate, Deebo Samuel, suffered a season-ending injury last year, Edwards stepped up his game. While this is a good sign, it also serves as a reminder that Edwards might not even be the top option for quarterback Jake Bentley this season.
6. Kelvin Harmon, WR North Carolina State
After flashing as a true freshman in 2016, averaging over 17 yards per reception and scoring five times despite limited involvement, Harmon stepped up and became the clear top option in the Wolfpack passing game. Harmon finished with over 1,000 yards, but needed 111 targets to get to that mark, hauling in just 59% of balls thrown his way. Harmon will need to improve on that to retain his current status as a top prospect.
7. Ahmmon Richards, WR Miami
Already a favorite of many, Richards is hoping to break the streak of athletic Hurricane wideouts who have failed to make an impact in the NFL. After a huge freshman season, Richards dealt with multiple leg injuries that limited him to just seven games in 2017. Although he’s considered an excellent route runner, Richards does not possess top-end speed and his 6’2”, 195-pound frame could use more bulk. Richards must prove he is healthy this year, and if he does, he could be a first-round NFL Draft pick.
8. Noah Fant, TE Iowa
Even after consecutive strong tight end classes, the position is still an afterthought as most dynasty owners focus on backs and receivers. Occasionally, a prospect comes along that demands our attention and Fant looks to be that type of player. A former defensive end, Fant has added weight during his college career, yet still was moved to the tight end spot and that has been a great call.
Standing 6’5” and weighing 241 pounds, Fant is an amazing athlete, showing speed and strength during his breakout 2017 season. He led the Big Ten with eleven touchdowns, which represented a whopping 41% of Iowa’s scores on the season. He is a near lock to be the top tight end drafted next season and ESPN’s Todd McShay currently projects him to be selected twelfth overall to the Bengals.
9. Bryce Love, RB Stanford
The reigning Lombardi Award and Doak Walker Award winner, Love shunned the NFL this season when many expected him to declare. Instead, he’ll return to the Cardinal with the challenge of maintain his impressive 7.8 career yards per carry mark. Despite seemingly constant nagging injuries, Love still posted over 2,000 total yards and proved to be an adequate replacement for former Stanford starter Christian McCaffrey.
Similar to the Panthers back, Love became accustomed to making the big play thanks to his speed, but he has not shown to be an asset in the passing game, with only 29 career receptions. ESPN’s Mel Kiper ranks Love as the top senior running back and Todd McShay projects him to be a first-round draft pick.
10. Collin Johnson, WR Texas
A former four-star recruit, Johnson endured a quiet freshman season, Charlie Strong’s final year as head coach, but led the Longhorns in receiving in 2017. Johnson has become well-known for his size, standing 6’6” and it is no surprise he uses that size to make the difficult catch using his strong hands.
Unfortunately, he’s shown to be inconsistent and also lacks speed. Johnson is a player who needs to continue to show improvement and increased production but has a chance to crack the NFL Draft’s opening day with a strong 2018 season.
11. Anthony Johnson, WR Buffalo
One of my favorite players in this class is not yet a household name, but he has a chance to change that. Johnson dominated in his first season at Buffalo after transferring from junior college. He racked up over 1,300 yards and 14 touchdowns on 76 catches. He was among the nation’s leaders with 599 yards on deep balls alone.
Pro Football Focus recently ranked Johnson as their top draft-eligible receiver, though dynasty owners will certainly ding him due to his age as he’ll already be 24-years-old come draft time.
12. Rodney Anderson, RB Oklahoma
At Oklahoma, Anderson’s career did not begin well as he missed time with a [pair of serious injuries, a broken leg and a neck injury. Back on the field in 2017, Anderson excelled and quickly earned the starting job. Playing in quarterback Baker Mayfield’s shadow, Anderson totaled over 1,200 yards and 16 touchdowns.
He can run between the tackles and catch the ball and some are projecting him as a first-round NFL Draft pick. Along with the injury history, Anderson was also accused of a sexual assault during the season, but he didn’t miss any game time.
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