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Bradley Ylitalo’s Scouting Notebook: Final Running Back Rankings

Bradley Ylitalo Posted On April 20, 2018
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We’re getting spoiled. For the second straight season, we have ourselves a ridiculously good running back class. With the best prospect I’ve scouted, a young man out of Baton Rouge that would be the RB1 in a lot of classes, and a very strong supporting cast led by a pair of Georgia Bulldogs, this group is downright special.

Having these backs ranked 1-15 doesn’t tell the entire story. Instead, I chose to also illustrate the tiers that I saw pretty clearly as I was finalizing these rankings. Lastly, relative to the running back position, I will let you know whether each prospect is more suited for PPR or Standard scoring. Let’s get into these rankings!

Tier One

1) Saquon Barkley, Penn State (Equal)

Not one ounce of my body even thought about getting creative here. Saquon Barkley is in his own tier for good reason. Even with dynasty purposes aside, he’s the best prospect in the entire 2018 class. Unless you feel like regretting a pick for many, many years, don’t pass on a chance to land the NFL’s next young superstar back.

Tier Two

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2) Derrius Guice, Louisiana State (Standard)

If not for a certain young man out of Penn State, people would be drooling over Derrius Guice as he’d be lauded as the consensus RB1. I have zero doubts about that. I’m not 100% convinced of Guice as a pass catcher, but he should be a consistent top ten rusher given he stays healthy. If you land him, you’re getting someone you won’t be able to keep out of your weekly lineup.

3) Sony Michel, Georgia (PPR)

There’s a lot of steam for Chubb to pass Michel, but because of his third-down skills, Michel still holds the edge. I don’t think the Combine reflected his athleticism. On tape, his quickness, speed, and vision show a potential day one pick. He’ll now need to prove he can handle the physicality of the NFL. Unless it’s a standard league, I’m taking Michel confidently with the 1.03.

4) Nick Chubb, Georgia (Standard)

Ask me a few months ago and I’d tell you that I’m legitimately worried about Chubb’s athleticism holding him back. With a little more film review and the show he put on in Indy, I’m now sold, hook, line, and sinker. Add in his strength and tremendous patience, it’s easy to see why many are falling head over heels in love with Chubb. I now just want to see a little more from him as a receiver. Who knows, though? He might just surprise me again.

5) Ronald Jones, Southern California (Standard)

Of everyone in tier two, Ronald Jones is by far the least pro-ready. Yet, ask me who has the highest ceiling of these four, and the answer to that question may just be Rojo once again. I try not to use the boom or bust tag. But with Jones, the title fits him to a T. He’s a tremendous athlete who will have to learn to play with much more patience to maximize his natural talent. I expect Jones to go in round two and slowly but surely earn his starting role.

Tier Three

6) Kerryon Johnson, Auburn (Standard)

Patience in the backfield has proven to one of the main dividers among this group of backs. Which side is Kerryon Johnson on? He isn’t just on the patient side, he’s the leader of the group. This kid knows you have to let the cookies cool before you eat them. College football often looked too easy for Johnson, and I think he might just find a way to make the NFL seem easy as well.

7) Rashaad Penny, San Diego State (Standard)

Rashaad Penny was one of many pleasant surprises at the Combine. His 4.46 forty was more than enough for me to have him as a solid day two pick. With Penny’s propensity for big runs and ability to find creases nobody else can, he could become an instant star. He’s the final back I’m willing to say I’m really confident in. Expect him to be a hot target at the end of round one in rookie drafts.

Tier Four

8) Royce Freeman, Oregon (Equal)

This young man is about as experienced as they come. After gathering over 1,000 touches in his career at Oregon, Royce Freeman is ready to make an immediate impact at the next level. There are no holes to pick in the Ducks game, except for his pass blocking, but we’ll look past that. Freeman’s yet another back with a great patience/power combination. He may be a tad overvalued but he’s someone you can’t go wrong with.

9) Nyheim Hines, North Carolina State (PPR)

Nyheim Hines’ rank is about much more than his position-best 40-yard dash. He’s the NFL’s ideal third-down back, with first and second down potential as well. He has natural hands and an amazing ability to block with his 5’8 frame. Consider that he packs a bigger punch than you would expect and has some of the best short area athleticism in this class, and you have a back all teams would love to have. I advise taking Hines very seriously. He’s going to be a consistent steal in rookie drafts.

10) John Kelly, Tennessee (PPR)

I don’t know if there was a prospect I had more fun scouting than John Kelly. The kid is small and shifty, and just tremendously difficult to tackle. With his hands and natural elusiveness in the open field, he’s got a skillset he can build a career upon. Unfortunately, he won’t blow you away with his athleticism and still lacks NFL level strength. Outside of PPR, don’t go too crazy going after Kelly.

11) Mark Walton, Miami (FL) (PPR)

Just like John Kelly, Mark Walton is a short and shifty receiving back who runs with elite technique. Going strictly off the tape, he’s likely ranked RB7 or RB8. But unfortunately for the Hurricane, the draft is more than just film. Walton is coming off a brutal ankle injury and didn’t exactly put on a show at the Combine. If he can prove he’s back to his pre-injury self though, he’ll be an instant steal.

12) Kalen Ballage, Arizona State (Standard)

Everyone seems to love Kalen Ballage. I’m imploring owners to rethink his value. Sure, he brings a well-built frame, and near ideal athleticism. But after that, what are you really getting? Ballage brings fairly limited play strength, sometimes runs with uptight technique, and has shaky third down ability. Don’t get me wrong, his upside makes him worth taking a chance on, he’s got a lot of work to do.

Tier Five

13) Bo Scarbrough, Alabama (Standard)

Everyone is as low as tier five for one reason or another. For Bo Scarbrough, he just hasn’t proven what kind of player he is on the field. He had a great Combine and brings with him superb size and power, but his shiftiness and pass catching ability leave quite a bit to be desired. I won’t be surprised if he ends up carving out a solid role and becomes a consistent producer. I also won’t be surprised if Scarbrough has a hard time finding good playing time.

14) Akrum Wadley, Iowa (PPR)

You’ll rarely see a very extreme view of Akrum Wadley. This man consistently went about his business and did his job for Kirk Ferentz. In his four seasons as a Hawkeye, Wadley proved himself to be an NFL athlete who knows how to run the football. If he can improve himself as a blocker, we could see him develop into rotational back capable of helping on all three downs. If you’re looking for safe picks later in the draft, look no further than the Iowa product.

T-15) Jordan Wilkins, Ole Miss (Standard)

This might be the first shocker of these rankings. If you haven’t had a chance to check out Jordan Wilkins, he’s a fun one. The Rebel will bring with him a well-rounded game capable of being used in a multitude of ways. The downside with Wilkins is that his game doesn’t have many elite traits. Still, watch what was able to do against that Alabama defense and tell me he isn’t ready to play with the big boys. Wilkins might just end up surprising a lot of dynasty owners.

T-15) Jaylen Samuels, North Carolina State (PPR)

Jaylen Samuels is easily one of the most intriguing prospects in the 2018 class. You could list him at three or four different positions without getting an argument from me. At the end of the day, I view Samuels as an RB/WR hybrid. What scares me is the fact that he might end up getting pegged as a fullback or H-back, which would seriously diminish his value. He has an impressive toolkit and might be the best pass catcher in this group, but there’s a possibility he’s only seen as a chess piece and never gets consistent snaps.

Names To Consider

Justin Jackson, Northwestern (Equal)

Justin Jackson has more than enough athleticism and vision to make a name for himself. He feels like a back who will find himself earning some early down play pretty quickly in his career.

Josh Adams, Notre Dame (Standard)

Josh Adams put up ridiculous numbers at Notre Dame and has one of the bigger frames in the class. It’s his tendency to run too high that is scaring some analysts like myself off him just a bit.

Roc Thomas, Jacksonville State (PPR)

Roc Thomas is an exciting athlete capable of breaking off big runs but still lacks the vision to do it with any consistency. He should be a fun one to take a chance on late in your drafts.

That wraps up this edition of “Bradley Ylitalo’s Scouting Notebook”. Please leave a comment or question about a specific prospect, or fit for your team, below. Feel free to shoot me a question on Twitter (@NFL_Drafthub), I’m always happy to interact with football fans. See you next time!

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Bradley Ylitalo
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