A View From the 1.01: Rookie Draft Strategy

Ryan McDowell Posted On April 10, 2018

For many dynasty players, the highlight of the off-season is the annual rookie draft and we are now less than three weeks away from many of those drafts kicking off. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention, and sometimes even before, we tend to turn our attention to the incoming rookie class and delusions of grandeur take over. In fact, dynasty players spend nearly the entire off-season preparing for how they will use their draft picks, or if they will use them at all.

In this twelve-part series, I’ll use the latest data available here at Dynasty League Football, namely our April Rookie ADP and the Dynasty Trade Finder, to ensure you are as prepared as possible when your draft begins. Based on our most recent ADP data, I’ll suggest the player you could be soon adding to your team, and if you don’t like that, I’ll also include a potential pivot option.

Also, I’ll include options based on the updated 2QB rookie ADP for those who play in that format. Finally, using the Dynasty Trade Finder, I will examine some recent trades that have taken place with each specific draft pick. Each trade is based on 12 team PPR, one QB leagues.

We all know the first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference makers can be found in the second round and beyond, as well. Because of that, I’ll also address the other picks that accompany each respective first-round draft slot.

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1.01

The Pick: Saquon Barkley, RB Penn State

This will be the easiest pick of every draft. The former Penn State star is the biggest lock at the top of the draft I’ve seen in my time as a fantasy player. Only Reggie Bush comes close to matching the hype. Even Ezekiel Elliott needed a plum landing spot and top five overall draft capital before he cracked the first round of startup drafts, something Barkley has already done. Landing spot is always important, but there is no conceivable event that could push Barkley out of the top spot.

Possible Pivots: None

That was easy! There are no pivot options needed regarding this pick or a couple of reasons. First, with the first pick of the draft, a dynasty owner can take any player on the board, so you don’t have to worry about your target being stolen. Secondly, we’re talking about Barkley here. You really shouldn’t be considering anyone else.

Trade Value:

As you might imagine, the trade value of the 1.01 rookie pick is approaching inconceivable levels. For some of you, that may have actually been reached long ago. Here are some recent trades accepted involving the 1.01 rookie pick, found using the Dynasty Trade Finder.

Antonio Brown, Jerick McKinnon, 2019 2nd for 1.01, Golden Tate, Lamar Miller, 2019 3rd
Ezekiel Elliott, Ben Roethlisberger, 1.08 for 1.01, Carson Wentz, OJ Howard
Alvin Kamara, 1.06 for 1.01
Allen Robinson, Jerick McKinnon, 1.07, 3.07 for 1.01
Sammy Watkins, 1.02, 1.09 for 1.01

Super-Flex Options: Barkley

Even in the 2QB format that greatly boosts the value of quarterbacks, Barkley is still the runaway favorite to be the top player drafted, sporting a 1.01 ADP in super-flex rookie mocks, as well.

2.01

The Pick: Kerryon Johnson, RB Auburn

This is stacking up to be another deep running back class and players like former Auburn back Kerryon Johnson falling to the second round is evidence of this. Johnson may not be heavily involved in the passing game, which could obviously limit his opportunity on the field, but he could eventually rise to a starting job. This makes him a very solid swing in the early second round.

Possible Pivots:

If you’d prefer a receiver, both Christian Kirk and Equanimeous St. Brown are coming off the board in this range as well. I could also see any of the top three tight ends, Dallas Goedert, Mike Gesicki or Mark Andrews rising to this range if they are drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft.

Trade Value:

Later round picks are obviously not as in demand as first rounders, but we still have some data. These picks are sometimes even treated as “throw-ins” as part of a larger deal.

1.11 for 2.01, George Kittle, 2019 2nd
Julio Jones, 1.10 for Leonard Fournette, 2.01
Le’Veon Bell for 1.04, 1.09, 2.01
1.11 for Paul Richardson, 2.01, 4.12
Tarik Cohen for 2.01

Super-Flex Options: Josh Allen, QB Wyoming

Despite the hate the fantasy community seems to have for Wyoming quarterback Josh Allen, landing a first-round NFL Draft pick and potential starting quarterback in the second round would be a coup. Expect him to eventually move into the first round of super-flex leagues but scoop him up if he continues to fall this far.

3.01

The Pick: Sam Darnold, QB USC

Dynasty players often avoid drafting rookie quarterbacks altogether, but once high-end assets such as former USC quarterback Sam Darnold, the potential top overall NFL Draft pick, fall into the third round, it is time to pull the trigger. Consider other recent rookie signal callers like Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes, and others, who are worth much more than their previous draft position in rookie drafts.

Possible Pivots:

If you are one of those who’d rather gamble on a position player rather than a rookie quarterback, you’ll have some decent options. Other players being drafted in this range include Anthony Miller, DJ Chark and Bo Scarbrough.

Trade Value:

Jordy Nelson, Marshawn Lynch, 5.11 for 3.01, 5.07
David Njoku, 4.02 for George Kittle, 3.01
Sammy Watkins for 1.04, 2.10, 3.01
Jimmy Garoppolo for Nick Foles, Jordy Nelson, 2.01, 3.01
Austin Seferian-Jenkins for Adam Shaheen, 3.01

Super-Flex Options: Mike Gesicki, TE Penn State

The great thing about super-flex leagues is that the increased value of quarterbacks causes a trickle-down effect that offers excellent value on players like Gesicki. The former Penn State tight end has been trending up and will likely be selected higher than this even in super-flex leagues but targeting the TE2 in this range is ideal.

4.01

The Pick: Dante Pettis, WR Washington

I have to admit I am surprised at how receiver Dante Pettis is being valued throughout the pre-draft process. Even a year ago, when I would watch Washington games planning to check out John Ross, it was always Pettis who made the eye-catching play. Once again, this is the type of player that shows the depth of this rookie class and one I would personally consider several picks early than this early fourth round value.

Possible Pivots:

There are several other appealing players in this range based on early rookie ADP, including DaeSean Hamilton, Antonio Callaway, Tre’Quan Smith and Allen Lazard.

Super-Flex Options: Tre’Quan Smith, WR UCF

By the later rounds of a super-flex league, the available options are very similar to any other draft, so Smith remains a player that will potentially be a target at that point, just as he would be in one quarterback leagues.

This concludes your View From the 1.01 draft spot. If you currently own that set of picks in a dynasty league, you already know you’ll come away with Barkley, but could potentially add players like Johnson, Darnold, and Pettis to your roster as well.

Again, this is the first in a 12-part series. Look for other editions coming soon for each draft slot in the top twelve.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.