The DLF Dynasty Mailbag
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
In last week’s edition of the Mailbag, I noted my opinion that “I can understand the contract drama, and these things don’t always work out.” And while some players continue to hold out, we’ve just seen new deals for Justin Jefferson and Christian McCaffrey, which come on the heels of extensions for Jaylen Waddle and Nico Collins, which of course followed mega-contracts for AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and Amon-Ra St. Brown. There are exceptions to every rule, but in general I don’t let off-season contract news affect my dynasty worldview. We’ll wait to see what happens with guys like Tee Higgins and Brandon Aiyuk, but their respective statuses wouldn’t impact the way I choose to proceed.
Let’s get to it!
From the Old-School Webform …
Stroud Crowd, or Feeling the Love?
Who is the better bet to have more success this season, CJ Stroud or Jordan Love? As a follow-up to that, which quarterback will be more successful over the next three years? –Gregory in Connecticut
To be clear, this is an extremely nuanced question which, depending on the respondent, will also result in an answer rooted at least somewhat in subjectivity. Given this, I’d opine that it could be an article in its own right!
So that’s exactly what I’ll do…
If there was a statistic for “come out of nowhere-ness,” these two signal callers would’ve been close to the #1 ranking. While both were former first round selections, there was significant reason for pessimism. Starting with Love, he was glued to the bench ever since being drafted back in 2020, though admittedly behind one of this era’s best quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers. With Stroud, it was perhaps less about his talent and more about the state of the Houston Texans, who paid the iron price for pick 1.02 where he was selected. That both quarterbacks led their teams to the playoffs, and then to a playoff win, was remarkable.
This of course occurred in real life. And while this is obviously influential for our fantasy valuations, it’s not an inherent 1:1. So to start, let’s consider how both are valued in a dynasty superflex fantasy setting.
While I’m a big proponent of Stroud, I’ll confess this result took me somewhat by surprise. These are both young, ascendant talents, but I think the differentiator is likely the immediacy of Stroud’s viability. While it’s true it was Love’s first year as a starter, it was already his fourth NFL season – rightly or wrongly, I think this worked against him in terms of projectability.
Still, as shown from the numbers above, it was Love who carried the season in terms of both fantasy points and points per game. The former was impacted hugely by his additional two games, but staying healthy is obviously a necessity for scoring fantasy points (though notably one of Stroud’s missed contests was in a meaningless Week 18 affair). With that said, he also showed a slightly higher per-game fantasy viability, as well.
This is at least partly due to a marginally higher rushing ceiling, with 2.9 points per game on the ground as compared to Stroud’s 2.3. Based on their collegiate profiles, I would anticipate this trend holding, and perhaps even broadening. While acknowledging sacks count as negative rushing yards in college, Stroud could only manage 136 rushing yards and a single score (1.7 YPC) as an Ohio State Buckeye, as compared to 403 yards and nine scores (2.4 YPC) for Love. To be clear, neither lit the world on fire, but Love saw more attempts per game and was more efficient, while also showing a better nose for the goal line. He also has a more projectable physical profile, as shown by his NFL Combine numbers.
Chart courtesy of Mock Draftable
Next to consider is each quarterback’s supporting cast, including both players and coaching staffs. Starting with Stroud, we have something of a “chicken or the egg” scenario – did he turn players like Nico Collins and Tank Dell into fantasy stalwarts, or did they aid in his ascension? My guess is the answer falls somewhere in between – while it’s true Collins achieved his first breakout season in 2023, his prior trajectory was one of a player on the rise, with per-game averages increasing across the board between his first and second years. It’s true the concept of the “third year breakout” receiver has largely gone the way of the dodo bird in the minds of fantasy owners, but the fact is every player doesn’t break out per a uniform, cookie cutter mold.
That’s especially true with Dell, who bucked trends as a pint-sized pass catcher breaking out in his rookie year. Though it was truncated by an unfortunate injury, Dell appears to having staying power. The same is also true for tight end Dalton Schultz, who remains as a solid is perhaps unspectacular player.
The wild card here is the arrival of veteran Stefon Diggs. I touched on Diggs’ prospects moving forward in last week’s edition of the Mailbag, and suffice it to say the red flags are blowing in the wind. If he can recapture his early-season 2023 form then it’s not particularly challenging to say that he’s the best pass catcher on either the Texans or Packers, which would put a massive feather in Stroud’s cap. But if he continues to spiral into mediocrity, the Texans brass may be left wondering if they should have rolled with Noah Brown or John Metchie as their WR3.
Speaking to said brass, it’s extremely challenging to compare Texans coach DeMeco Ryans to Packers coach Matt LaFleur. The latter has proven his chops with a 56-27 record while helming Green Bay, including last season’s surprising 9-8 campaign in what was anticipated by many to be a rebuilding year. He proven that he’s more than just a guy who holds a clipboard behind Rodgers’ generational talent, and as such should be given commensurate credit. But despite LaFleur’s three 13-win seasons in 2019-2021, Ryans’ 2023 turnaround of the Texans likely stands as the most impressive season by either coach, and in my opinion should have been rewarded with a Coach of the Year accolade (this went to the Browns’ Kevin Stefanski in a tiebreaker). With that said, the onus is on Ryans to continue to prove it – I believe that he and the Texans front office are doing a great job to take advantage of their window, but we need to continue to see progression on the field.
As to the Packers skill position players, they have one of the league’s more intriguing collections of young talent. To that point, there are currently a whopping six Green Bay receivers and tight ends being selected within the first 16 rounds per the current DLF ADP. More incredibly, each of these players was either a rookie or second year player during the 2023 season. While none have approached the individual highs of their Texans counterparts, they represent a better ensemble cast, with perhaps more room to continue to grow.
Shown in the table above are the relevant fantasy and dynasty metrics for these key skill position players. As can likely immediately be discerned, the Texans are both more highly regarded (ADP), and produced more on the field (2023 PPR Finish). The Packers are a bit deeper, particularly as it relates to each team’s WR4 and TE2. As noted above, injuries are part of the game so this last bit is important – but in my opinion this is easily overshadowed by the mammoth ceiling potential in Houston.
Even if Diggs does not return to his prior form, Collins and Dell should continue to improve. If Christian Watson stays healthy and/or Romeo Doubs continues his trajectory, perhaps they can pair with Reed to establish a similar ceiling, but as of now this is theoretical. And while Musgrave and Kraft could likely combine to outduel Schultz, the veteran has established a fine fantasy baseline.
Given the totality of what’s presented herein, I have to side with the masses. Despite producing immediately as a rookie, Stroud has lots of room to grow, and the Texans are led by a front office and coaching staff who are making it easier for him to get better. For Love to outperform him, he will likely need to lean more into his rushing ability, and the Packers receivers and tight ends will have to take a big leap forward to where Diggs, Collins, Dell and Schultz already are. Given this, along with how close the two quarterbacks already were in 2023, I’m projecting Stroud as the better immediate, short-term, and long-term dynasty and fantasy asset.
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