Dynasty ADP vs Rankings: Wide Receivers
This series explores Ranks and ADP to find advantages in our dynasty leagues. Last week we looked at the rank differences at running back from the new Superflex ADP from May mock drafts. This week we’re going to consider the wide receiver position and what’s changed since we last updated.
Which wide receivers are DLF rankers more and less interested in than current ADP? Who are their buys, sells, and sleepers?
You can find links to those profiles, our DLF Ranks, and the current May Superflex ADP.
The Wide Receivers Most Valued by DLF
Ranks generally run higher than ADP at the wide receiver position, as we have seen throughout this series. This means the difference is usually higher, and we have a higher number of players with over 20% difference using our formula.
Ranks tend to lean more heavily toward proven players or rookies in general.
Back in February, when we looked at wide receivers, we saw nine with a 20% difference compared to ADP.
Five of the players who ranks preferred remain targets in dynasty:
- Deebo Samuel, WR SF
- AJ Brown, WR PHI
- Tyreek Hill, WR MIA
- Treylon Burks, WR TEN
- DK Metcalf, WR SEA
Four have lost their spot, as their ADP and Rank have moved closer over time:
- George Pickens, WR PIT
- Rashod Bateman, WR MIN
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR DET
- Davante Adams, WR LV
This isn’t to say that rankers no longer like these players. It’s just that the difference between ranks and ADP has lessened since then. The window may be closed for trade offers.
Several of those spots have been taken by players who were unavailable last time.
- Quentin Johnston, WR LAC
- Zay Flowers, MIN
Once again, proving no one is more invested in the potential of rookie wide receivers than a dynasty ranker.
This leaves three new additions to the value list. They have become “values” – according to ranks – since February.
- Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA
- Stefon Diggs, WR BUF
- Jerry Jeudy, WR DEN
The Wide Receivers DLF is Selling
Back in February, before the NFL draft, only six wide receivers had a negative difference between ranks and ADP; only two of those differences were double digits. The list has grown since then, with the top nine players registering a negative difference of over 5%, the top six differences all over eight percent, and three measuring a double-digit percentage difference inside the top 100 picks.
Four players from February, whom DLF was selling, have left this list. In other words, if you’re rostering them, there is no longer a window to try and trade them for good value according to ranks.
- Keenan Allen, WR LAC
- Garrett Wilson, WR NYJ
- Drake London, WR ATL
There are three players in ranks that are still willing to trade away at their current ADP.
- CeeDee Lamb, WR DAL
- DeVonta Smith, WR PHI
- Tee Higgins, WR CIN
That leaves us with three new additions to the list. DLF ranks are suggesting we should explore value trades on them right now.
- Cooper Kupp, WR LAR
- Terry McLaurin, WR WAS
- Brandon Aiyuk, WR SF
All three seem to be caused by the approach of the season. ADP has become more interested in points as many start to think more about start-sit decisions. ADP has risen much more than Ranks decreased on these three since February.
Sleepers?
Finally, let’s take a quick look at who, outside the top 100 picks, ranks are suggesting we should be interested in their current draft position in ADP.
Wan’Dale Robinson had one good game as a rookie in 2022, but it was also his last game before his injury.
Rondale Moore was a highly touted prospect from the 2021 draft for many analysts. He has missed significant time with injury and is now being drafted in round 15 of a start-up.
Alec Pierce ran a lot of routes in his rookie season. They didn’t add up to a significant number of targets or yards, and the team added additional competition in the form of Josh Downs. Not to mention a rookie quarterback whose primary weapon, running, doesn’t lend itself to a high expectation of passing volume.
Despite this, all three are previously touted young players relatively early in their careers. Ranks are still willing to remember the potential upside they have shown in spurts or as college players.
Beyond that, Gabriel Davis, Darnell Mooney, Adam Thielen, and, perhaps most of all, Mike Evans seem to be a product of continuing to value players who have been good. Ranks are at least relatively high on them compared to most dynasty players in current drafts.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
- Peter Howard: Dynasty Fantasy Football Superflex Rankings Explained - March 6, 2024
- Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week 15 - December 23, 2023
- Dynasty Target and Regression Trends: Week 14 - December 16, 2023
