Dynasty Decision: Zamir White
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Zamir White, RB LV
White is not your typical dynasty decision running back, given he is going into his third season. However, As the perceived lead back in Las Vegas and the increasingly shorter fantasy career of second or third-tier running backs, this is the perfect time to have the conversation around whether we should be excited about the potential of White or we should be avoiding it like the plague.
Previous Performance
As a rookie, White saw almost no usage. He saw 17 total touches, all of which came on the ground as he was an afterthought for the offense after being drafted in the fourth round by the Raiders. However, while 2023 looked like a similar story, with White seeing minimal usage as he played second fiddle to Josh Jacobs, it swiftly changed after a quad injury to Jacobs late in week 14.
After that point, White saw consistent volume and produced to the point he finished the final four weeks of the season as the RB9, averaging 15.2 points per game. During that stretch, he led the league in carries and was third in rushing yards behind Aaron Jones and James Conner. He was third in the league in yards after contact behind only Jones and Jonathan Taylor. While not a prolific receiver, he still saw 3.25 targets per game, which while not incredible, is more than enough to buoy his fantasy production.
Situation and Usage
While there is a huge question mark at quarterback, the Raiders have actually put together a reasonably potent offense. They have an elite receiver in Davante Adams and some nice complementary pieces in Jakobi Meyers and Michael Gallup. Their tight end room is incredibly young but has elite potential with Michael Mayer and Brock Bowers, and their offensive line should be about league-average. This should be enough for either Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell to lead them to be around an average-scoring offense. In that scenario, there should be enough high-value touches for White to succeed.
White will have some competition for touches in the backfield, but none of it is too strong. Alexander Mattison was signed as a free agent from Minnesota, and the fact that he signed a one-year $2 million contract shows what we should expect from him. The slightly concerning addition is Dylan Laube, who profiles as a satellite back in the NFL and could take away a target share and those high-value touches from the passing game. I expect White to still see north of a 60% opportunity share this year, which is more than enough to produce reliable RB2-type numbers.
Contract
White is in the third year of his four-year rookie contract so he is comfortably secure for the next two seasons. I would not expect anything to drastically change with his contract until the next off-season.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the RB28 in April ADP and the 113th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth an early third-round pick in either a one-quarterback league or a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Zamir White is not a sexy name to dream of going out and making a big trade to acquire. However, small moves like acquiring him can be enough to tip the balance of power in a league and help push you toward contention or that all-important championship. White is in a secure situation where he should see reliable volume this season, and volume is king in the running back position. As long as he stays healthy, middling RB2 production is the minimum you can expect, given the workload he will see. There is also the upside that he could produce more than that, given the explosion he showed down the stretch of last season.
As a contending team, you’re doing yourself a disservice if you haven’t at least asked the question about acquiring White. He is likely a low-cost flex play for you but has much more upside. Then you move to the price where you can likely acquire him for a late second or early third-round pick. That is such an incredible price, given his projected production. I would happily pay up to a mid to early second-round pick, but the beauty is that you likely don’t have to pay that. He doesn’t have the longevity you would like for dynasty, considering he could be replaced at the end of the season. However, there are not many backs in fantasy who have guaranteed longevity, considering the speed at which they are replaced in the NFL.
As a rebuilding team, I would view White as more of a hold. If you can sell for an early second-round pick, I would happily do that. I firmly believe you should be selling any and every running back in a rebuild, as the injury rate and drop in dynasty value that would ensue would be huge. However, if you can’t fetch that price, I would happily hold as he will likely be worth significantly more in-season when he is producing.
Every year, players with a clear and projectable role remain undervalued as dynasty managers chase shiny new things, but players like Zamir White can help. He may not win you a title on his own, but he will undoubtedly help put you in a position to compete for one.
- Dynasty Decision: Deshaun Watson - May 17, 2024
- Dynasty Decision: Zamir White - May 10, 2024
- Dynasty Decision: Evan Engram - May 3, 2024
