2024 Off-Season Mock Drafts: Did the Mocks Measure Up?
It came. It went. And just like that, the 2024 NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror. Heading into it, many people look to NFL mock drafts as a tool to get an idea of where some of their favorite rookies might wind up. They use that newfound knowledge to help build up their rookie rankings heading into dynasty drafts, but at the end of the day, none of us know anything until the draft is finally over. I wanted to look back at several prominent NFL mock drafts and compare their draft day predictions to the actual results.
If the mocks were accurate, then it’s safe to assume they’re a relatively useful tool when building your rookie rankings ahead of the draft – especially if you place a lot of emphasis on landing spots. If the mock drafts were way off, then we can take them at face value as a fun way to waste time ahead of the NFL Draft, but nothing we should ever put any stock into as dynasty managers.
I used the following six NFL mock drafts for comparison: a CBS Mock Draft, a PFF Mock draft, an NFL.com mock draft, a Sportingnews mock draft, a Sports Illustrated mock draft, and a mock from The Athletic. These looked to be the most in-depth, comprehensive seven-round mock drafts I could find. Now, let’s see what they got right and where they went wrong.
Locked In
This year, more than in years past, it seemed like it was pretty easy to guess who was going where to start the draft. I got 10 of the first 11 picks correct—and I don’t know anything about what the NFL is doing. I’m not unique; many of the experts and non-experts out there nailed the top of the draft, too.
Every single person who wasn’t fishing for clicks or views had the Bears selecting Caleb Williams first overall. Everyone was convinced Washington and New England were both going with a quarterback second and third, too. Most of the mocks had Jayden Daniels to Washington and Drake Maye to New England, and that’s how it all played out. Sometimes, they were flip-flopped, but we were all pretty sure this draft was starting QB-QB-QB.
After the trio of quarterbacks to start, the Cardinals were on the board with the fourth pick, and almost everyone had them taking Marvin Harrison Jr, which they did. There were a couple of examples where they traded back, and he fell to the Chargers with the fifth pick, but again, everyone felt pretty good about the first four picks.
For my purposes here, I’m going to consider “locked in” as a player who was mocked to a particular team at least 50% of the time. Other players who mock drafters had correctly locked into specific teams were JJ McCarthy to the Vikings, Malik Nabers to the Giants, and Rome Odunze to the Bears. All were early selections, making it a little easier to lock someone into a particular team, as the deeper you get into the draft, the more the picks ahead of you and which players are left impact your picks.
Most dynasty managers felt pretty good about the top of their early rankings, as there seemed to be consensus among everyone regarding landing spots for the top of the class.
Locked in Wrong
On the other hand, not everyone who seems locked into a particular team ends up landing there on draft day. The unanimous top tight end in this class – and some believe of all time, Brock Bowers was most often mocked to the Jets. I don’t know how much stock everyone in the dynasty community put into those predictions heading into fantasy mocks, as I wouldn’t have loved it from a fantasy perspective.
Two quarterbacks were locked into teams this year as well: Florida State’s Jordan Travis and Washington’s Michael Penix. Travis was often linked to the Ravens, and Penix was thought to be the next quarterback of the Raiders. Well, I think everyone still believes that Penix would have been the Raiders’ selection at 13 had Atlanta not left everyone scratching their head after selecting him eighth overall. Travis landing with the Jets makes him a much more intriguing stash for dynasty, as he can learn behind Aaron Rodgers for one or two years as he tries to develop in the NFL. We know the clock is ticking on Rodgers and there will be a need for his replacement soon, whereas Lamar Jackson has a lot more seasons left in him.
Team Needs
It is insanely hard for anyone to correctly pick what players land with what team in the NFL draft. This is especially true the deeper you get into the draft. Sometimes, one of the most significant takeaways from NFL mocks is seeing which teams are often mock drafting specific positions. For example, Pittsburgh needed an early receiver. While nobody was consistently mocked to the Steelers, they were always linked to a receiver. In the six mocks I used, the Steelers drafted Roman Wilson, Keon Coleman, and Ricky Pearsall twice each. So we might not know the player, but heading into the NFL draft and thinking about how our personal rankings and tiers would play out, I often reserve a spot in my brain for the “Steelers’ rookie receiver.”
Aside from the obvious QB-needy teams every year, you can get some insight into what NFL teams are looking for from the NFL mocks. I did not think running back was a need for the Packers or Jets, but the mocks had them both grabbing running backs. In the end, the mocks were right, as Green Bay drafted MarShawn Lloyd, and the Jets selected both Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis. Many of the NFL mocks are conducted by writers who have several NFL connections, and they know a lot more than you or I, so it pays to read the tea leaves sometimes.
In mocks, the Bengals were often linked to tight ends, and on draft weekend, they came away with two, Erick All and Tanner McLachlan. Both were mocked to Cincinnati once, but again, it would be rare to nail that down before the draft (although one of the mocks actually had the Bengals taking them both, which is pretty impressive).
Heading into the draft every football website in the world covers “team needs” heading into the draft, but once you start digging into the mock drafts, the results don’t always match up with the pre-draft team needs, so take a peek at what teams seem to be targeting what positions in the mock drafts.
Running Backs
Yeesh, what a mess. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while, and if you throw enough darts, you’ll eventually hit a bullseye. That is what the NFL mocks looked like if you were trying to project landing spots for this year’s running back class. Sure, a few were correct, but for the most part, you weren’t able to take anything away from the NFL mocks and running backs landing spots. It was gross.
We’ll address the elephant in the room first – Dallas failed to select a running back despite it being a clear position of need and, instead, opted to bring back Ezekiel Elliott for another season. That alone screws up everything we thought we knew. Trey Benson was never mocked to Arizona. Jaylen Wright was never mocked to Miami. Blake Corum was never mocked to the Rams. Lloyd was never mocked to the Packers, and on and on and on.
The Chargers had often taken a running back and ended up drafting Kimani Vidal. The Rams were linked to the position and ended up with Corum. While not consistent, the Bills, Raiders, 49ers, and Broncos were all linked to the position, but none of the mocks had Ray Davis, Dylan Laube, Isaac Guerendo, or Audric Estime landing there, respectively.
The takeaway: ranking rookie running backs based on projected landing spots via NFL mock drafts is a fool’s errand. I haven’t looked at past years, but at least in 2024, the mocks were utterly worthless for the running back position. We knew the Panthers, Chargers, Rams, and Dallas backfields needed help heading into the draft; whoever landed in those spots was going to see a bump in fantasy no matter what, so marrying any player to any spot ahead of the draft was – and is – pointless.
Looking back at this exercise, I had a few takeaways. The top of the draft can be pretty clear-cut, minus the rare oddball selections (I’m looking at you, Atlanta). You can use the landing spots and draft capital projection to alter your early, pre-draft ranking accordingly. You can also use the “what team(s) drafted what positions most often” mindset when building your early post-draft rankings and tiers in your mind: Steelers’ receiver, Chargers’ receiver, Bengals’ tight end, Panthers’ running back, etc., but be ready to pivot when the Cowboys’ running back never materializes. And speaking of… running back is a disaster. The Jets have one of – if not the best – running backs in the NFL in Breece Hall, a solid sophomore backup in Israel Abanikanda, and they still burned two draft picks on running backs who many people were interested in pre-draft. Effectively killing any fantasy value Abanikanda, Allen, or Davis had. Boo. Between draft predictions, roster projections, and 30ish teams operating with full-blown running back committees, it is nearly impossible to take anything away from the NFL mocks when you’re prepping for your fantasy backfield. I hope you enjoyed this look at how NFL mocks can be used to help you in your dynasty drafts, and you can apply some of this as you prepare for the 2025 draft- it’s only 50 weeks away!
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- Off-Season Mock Drafts: NFL Mock Draft Compilation, Part Two - April 12, 2025
- Off-Season Mock Drafts: Rookie Movers - April 5, 2025
