Dynasty Decision: David Montgomery
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold, expecting that decline, only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
David Montgomery, RB DET
David Montgomery is not the most spectacular fantasy asset, and people will lust over his teammate in the same backfield. But considering he has been in the league for six seasons, he has been incredibly consistent, posting a top-24 season every year
Previous Performance
David Montgomery has been one of the more polarizing names in dynasty for the past few years. He entered the league as a third-round pick by the Chicago Bears in 2019 and was a steady—if unspectacular—producer for most of his time there. He peaked in 2020 with over 1,500 total yards and 10 touchdowns, finishing as the RB4 overall in PPR formats.
Montgomery signed with the Detroit Lions ahead of the 2023 season and immediately became a key part of their powerful offense. He posted 1,015 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground while adding modest receiving production, finishing the year as the RB17 in PPR. Despite splitting time with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, Montgomery proved he could still be a fantasy-relevant asset, especially in standard and half-PPR formats.
In 2024, Montgomery remained effective but saw a slight dip in overall usage. He missed two games due to minor injuries and saw his touchdown total fall to twelve. He finished with 775 rushing yards and 340 receiving yards. His 15.7 PPR points per game placed him firmly in RB2 territory.
One thing worth pointing out is his incredible Touchdown rate over the last two years. His career average is a 3.9% TD rate. In 2023, he finished with 5.9%, and in 2024, he was even higher at 6.5%. Those numbers are likely to regress toward his career average moving forward.
Situation and Usage
Montgomery’s situation is a tale of two backfields. On the one hand, he’s part of a high-powered Lions offense with one of the league’s best offensive lines and a coaching staff that has shown a clear desire to run the ball, especially in short-yardage and red-zone situations—areas where Montgomery thrives.
On the other hand, Jahmyr Gibbs is the flashier, more explosive talent and continues to see his role expand. The Lions have made it clear they view Gibbs as a future centerpiece, particularly in the passing game. Montgomery is the grinder, the closer, and the tone-setter—but he’s not likely to suddenly command a three-down role again unless Gibbs misses time.
His fantasy value is tightly tied to game scripts and scoring opportunities. Montgomery is still likely to be the goal-line back, but his weekly upside is somewhat touchdown-dependent. If the Lions take a step back offensively or Gibbs continues to eat into red-zone touches, Montgomery could become a boom-or-bust FLEX rather than a steady RB2.
There is also the looming question of what the Lions’ offense will look like after losing not just offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson but also Tanner Engstrand, who was the passing game coordinator. If the offense takes a step back with their new play-callers, it could have a disastrous impact on the entire offense, particularly Montgomery, who relies on those goal-line carries.
Contract
Montgomery signed a two-year extension in October that raised his average salary and added some longevity. However, it didn’t change the picture massively. After the 2025 season, the Lions could save $4 million if they moved on from the veteran back. That saving isn’t significant and means he will likely remain on the roster, but they will save $8m if they move on from him after the 2026 season. That feels like a significant saving, and with some of the other players due for extensions, the Lions may opt to move on from him at that point.
If you’re looking to project, I think you can be confident that he will be with the Lions for the next two seasons, but beyond that, it is less certain.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the RB23 in March ADP and the 98th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth the 2.04 in the 2025 draft or two random 2026 second-round picks in a Superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
David Montgomery feels like the perfect candidate for the dynasty decision article. He is at a crossroads in his fantasy career. He is still valued as a premium asset, yet his career’s end is much closer than the start. He is in an offense that will likely take a step back and is splitting work with a far more explosive back. His overall production will drop considerably if he sees slightly less touchdown equity. This feels like the perfect time to get out of the asset while it still holds value.
If you can pivot to a high second-round pick in this draft, I think you should be able to replace him with a similarly profiled running back but significantly buy-back years. You could also pivot from Montgomery to a younger back in a similar price range. Chubba Hubbard or Tyrone Tracy feel like similar bets from a production standpoint, but are significantly younger and have the potential to own their backfield in a way that Montgomery won’t.
The upside for Montgomery outside of a Gibbs injury is a middling RB2 season. That kind of production can be found at a significantly cheaper price. The downside is that he is an ageing player on a worse offense, missing out on the high-value touches. It feels like it’s almost too much sense not to sell, no matter your roster and situation.
- Dynasty Decision: David Montgomery - April 18, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: Michael Pittman - April 11, 2025
- Dynasty Decision: Rhamondre Stevenson - April 4, 2025
