Sam Darnold signs with Seattle: The Dynasty Fantasy Football Impact

Ken Kelly

When the Seahawks traded away Geno Smith last week, most figured they must have had a plan. In fact, most also figured that plan was to sign soon-to-be free agent quarterback Sam Darnold. In the end, they did just that today, agreeing to a three-year contract with the now former Minnesota Vikings signal caller on a three-year deal worth more than $100 million with $55 million guaranteed. The Seahawks are clearly rebuilding, but they now have the most important position taken care of. The deal creates a ripple effect in dynasty leagues, so let’s re-assess some player values.

Sam Darnold, QB SEA

Darnold’s career has been anything but predictable. After being taken with the third overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, he was supposed to be the savior for the Jets. However, an uneven roster, a revolving door at Head Coach and basic franchise ineptness ruined any chance of that happening. He ended his Jets tenure after just three seasons and 38 starts, posting just over 8,000 passing yards with 45 touchdowns and 39 interceptions. In short, he looked like a bust. After his time with the Jets, he did get a chance to start for the Panthers, but the results were again a mixed bag as he had 16 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in 18 starts over two years, leading to him spending some time with the 49ers and attempting to rejuvenate his career.

Enter 2024.

Darnold signed with the Minnesota Vikings last season to essentially become a bridge quarterback for JJ McCarthy. Instead, he finally showed the talent we all knew he had as the combination of an unfortunate injury to McCarthy, a solid roster and great coaching finally put him in a position to succeed. He did just that, throwing for a whopping 4,319 yards with 35 touchdowns and just 12 interceptions last season. Now 27, it finally seems Darnold has flipped the switch on his career.

There’s no doubt Seattle is taking a risk here as Darnold has been average for the better part of his career and has just this one great season to show for it. However, last year was the only year he played for a truly stable franchise and Seattle is known for being just that as well.

The biggest question for Darnold is going to revolve around his starting cast. With DK Metcalf in Pittsburgh and Tyler Lockett released, Seattle has an emerging star in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and little else on offense. They’ll certainly re-tool that side of the football as they now have five of the first 90 picks in the upcoming NFL Draft. Darnold should find himself in a better position, but there are going to be questions here.

In the end, Darnold should be looked upon as a high-end QB2 who could put up QB1 games in dynasty leagues next season. However, if the starts out hot, his ADP and ranking are going to go up pretty quickly as he’ll have proven he’s truly turned a corner in his career.

sam darnold dynasty adp 1

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR SEA

JSN really took a huge step forward in his second year in the NFL, posting a 100/1,130/6 line for Seahawks last season, becoming their second option behind Metcalf in the process. With both Metcalf and Lockett not on the roster, he’s destined to be an absolute target hog for the Seahawks next season. Darnold was certainly good enough in Minnesota to keep both Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison more than relevant and should be able to do the same for JSN. In short, it’s time to shine for Smith-Njigba and he’s primed to do just that. The “buy low” window on him has slammed shut as this is one Seattle position player who is undoubtedly going to get all the targets he can handle each and every week.

jaxon smith njigba dynas 2

Other Seattle Skill Players

The rest of the crew is in flux, though the combination of Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet should benefit from this signing as Darnold is good enough to keep defenses from just stacking the box against them. Outside of that, this looks like a team that is far from complete in terms of their roster constructions.

kenneth walker vs zach c

JJ McCarthy, QB MIN

Well, the Vikings wanted to bring Darnold back next season to at least buy some time for McCarthy. They risked being able to do that without using the franchise tag on him and got burned in the process. McCarthy should be ready to perform at the beginning of the season and now has the reigns to a very explosive offense all to himself. He looked good in the preseason, but that’s hardly an indication of real NFL future success. Regardless, this is his team now and his ADP is going to rise substantially over the coming months as he’ll be surrounded by a ton of talent next season and beyond.

jj mccarthy dynasty adp 1

Vikings Skill Players

It’s just hard to argue with what Darnold was able to do last season. We’ll see if McCarthy can do what Darnold could (and what Kirk Cousins did before him) in maximizing the dynasty value of players like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, and Aaron Jones. These are big shoes to fill and while it seems McCarthy should be just fine, we’ll need to see it before feeling good about the ADP of this group and anyone else currently in Minnesota.

justin jefferson vs jord

 

Ken Kelly