Dynasty Decision: DJ Moore
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
DJ Moore, WR CHI
Moore has been a consistent but frustrating dynasty asset to own for years. Heading into his eighth season, Moore has been a consistent season-long performer but has been a very frustrating week-to-week producer, with some very high highs and some very low lows. Still in his prime at 27 years old, should dynasty managers be holding on for the last few prime seasons, or should they be looking to capitalize now before any potential value decline?
Previous Performance
Since entering the league as a first-round pick of the Panthers in 2018, Moore has consistently produced as a WR2 in fantasy. Despite dealing with inconsistent quarterback play, he has finished as a top-25 wide receiver in six straight seasons. However, he has only broken the top 12 once in 2023.
Starting his career in Carolina, Moore quickly earned significant target volumes. After seeing 82 targets as a rookie, he went on to see more than 118 in each of his seasons with the Panthers. Despite a rotating cast of quarterbacks, he produced consistent and efficient numbers across the board. After the 2022 season, the Panthers traded Moore to Chicago to land their franchise QB. Moore proceeded to have his best fantasy year ever despite lower target columns and questionable quarterback play with Justin Fields under center, mainly due to finding the end zone a career-high eight times and a career-high catch rate. With Caleb Williams drafted before the 2024 season, expectations were high, but increased target competition in Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze meant a drop in raw fantasy production in 2024.
Situation and Usage
Moore has played a few roles as a receiver throughout his career. We’ve seen him have a very high average depth of target where he was used as a downfield vertical receiver. This last season, he was consistently used underneath close to the line of scrimmage in plays designed to maximize his yards after the catch potential. With the Bears entering a new phase of offense and bringing in new head coach Ben Johnson, I expect Moore to be used creatively to maximize his varied skill set.
Moore will likely be used at all three levels of the field and will be moved around the formation to get free releases from the slot, as well as advantageous matchups outside. The hope and expectation are that the entire offense will take a step forward in Williams’ second season now that they have a new head coach and a premium offensive play-caller. The Bears are also likely to invest in the offensive line and move on from Allen, meaning the target competition and quality will likely increase. Overall, the outlook is more positive heading into 2025, but that comes with a healthy dose of projection.
Contract
In July last year, Moore signed a four-year, $110 million extension that placed him close to the top of the wide receiver market. That contract will keep him with the Bears until after the 2029 season. However, the cap hits and guarantees are structured in a way that the Bears could move on from him much sooner. The 2026 season is fully guaranteed in March 2025, and 66% of the 2027 contract is guaranteed in March 2026. So, the Bears could move on from the veteran receiver and save some money against the cap, but they would need to make that decision soon after the season finishes.
I expect Moore to play at least the 2025, 2026, and 2027 seasons with the Bears. At that point, they would likely need to either extend or release the then-31-year-old receiver as the guarantees will have finished, and they can move on from him with only $4m in dead cap. There are avenues where the Bears could get out over the next few years, but realistically, Moore will be with the franchise for at least the next three seasons unless something drastic happens.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the WR35 in January ADP and the 89th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth the 1.09 in the 2025 draft or a random 2026 first-round pick in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
I have never felt comfortable with how to value DJ Moore. His value has changed significantly over the past few years. As you can see below, he has been an early second-round pick but also fallen outside the top 50 picks. Despite the season-long consistency, he has stretches of hugely frustrating production. That being said, I am surprised at how far he has recently fallen down the positional ranks. He is valued as a back-end WR3 at WR35 even though he is only 27 and is a consistent season-long producer who is locked up contractually.
Because of that price point, Moore immediately became more interesting to me. The trade analyzer has him worth the 1.09, which is probably going to be around the WR3 or WR4 in this year’s draft class. The chances of them consistently hitting for fantasy is less than a coin toss. Moore will likely produce as a top 24 performer over the next three seasons. Suppose you’re a contending team and can acquire Moore as your WR3 or WR4 for his current price; that move can push you over the top. It may not feel like a league-winning move, but few players have the potential ceiling you can acquire for a late first-round pick.
If you’re not contending, Moore is young enough that you can hold him so that when you’re competing in 12 months, he will still be valuable. Although if you feel you want to offload now, I would understand, but I would hold fire until we get to August or September, when his price starts to increase as we head into redraft season and people switch their mindsets around age and production.
- Dynasty Decision: Michael Pittman - April 11, 2025
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