Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Trey McBride vs Sam LaPorta
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land.
It’s true the NFL Combine has lost some of its luster in recent years given the deferrals of testing by many star players until their respective pro days. Just this year, Cam Ward, Shadeur Sanders, Ashton Jeanty, Cam Skattebo and Tyler Warren (amongst others) failed to perform the full suite of exercises. Still, opinions will be formed and reformed based upon the happenings in Indianapolis, so we best still pay attention. Fortunately DLF has you covered with a running blog of activity, to be paired with eventual accompanying analysis.
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Let’s get to it!
From Discord…
The (Mc)Bride-to-Be
Which side of this mega-deal do you prefer for a contending team in a 12-team, superflex, TE-premium/2TE PPR league – Trey McBride, Kenneth Walker, Bijan Robinson, Jordan Addison, JJ McCarthy and 2025 pick 1.04, or Jayden Daniels, Sam LaPorta, Brian Thomas Jr, 2025 pick 2.05, and 2026 second and third round picks?
As shown by the DLF Trade Analyzer, on the surface this is a fair enough deal for both sides that will ultimately come down to owner preference. While the Daniels side is lower in value, it has the best player in the deal, along with two of the top three and three of the top five assets. The ancillary pieces help the Robinson side catch up and surpass the Daniels side in value, but also introduce subjectivity given their stature as lower-tiered pieces. Regardless, this is a deal boasting the dynasty RB1, TE2, TE3, QB3, and WR6 across both sides – as such, and given the closeness in value, it’s hard to assert there’s a wrong answer.
Of course, context is always important, and the lens with which we’re viewing this deal is that of a contending squad. As alluded to above, given the fact we’re dealing with multiple high-end assets there’s a solid argument to be made that either side would fit the bill. However, when draft picks and unproven prospects are involved, the scale may be tipped.
Starting with Vikings pass catcher Addison, we have a player who definitely deserves to be in starting lineups, but also one who apart from a couple of weeks here and there probably isn’t winning weeks for you. To be clear, this is an important trait, and worst case even teams who are stacked at receiver need depth. But in being faithful to the premise, and noting that I believe Addison has a place on any dynasty roster, he may be better served marinating on a team that’s a couple years away.
We know the presence of teammates Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson will always complicate Addison’s march towards fantasy relevance, effectively capping his upside as long as they’re healthy. But a new and potentially confounding factor is interestingly enough on the same side of this deal – rising sophomore and 2024 first round signal caller McCarthy.
Statistics courtesy of Sports Reference.
McCarthy’s collegiate profile was one of an efficient quarterback who took care of the ball and largely avoided mistakes, as well as one who improved his accuracy each year. But what’s also readily apparent is that his repetitions were carefully managed, and during his two years as Michigan’s starter he only averaged 22.6 passing attempts per game. Perhaps worryingly, this number actually went down between his sophomore and junior seasons. Of course, the Wolverines had one of the best rushing attacks in college football, and if you’re going to be the Prom King you ought to dance with the girl who brought you there – still, it makes you wonder what the NFL learning curve might look like for a player who simply doesn’t have the reps.
Continuing, the 2024 Vikings were a prolific passing offense, but this was due more to efficiency than volume. To that point, they were middling in terms of passing attempts, 18th in the league at 32.2 attempts per game. However, they were fifth in terms of YPA (8.0) and passing scores (35), sixth in yards (4,043), and 12th in completion percentage (66.4%). The onus appears likely to be on McCarthy to continue this trend of excellence shown both by Kirk Cousins (2023) and Sam Darnold (2024).
In the aggregate, this is a lot of risk for a contending team. In addition to still needing to jump to the next echelon of performance, Addison may also be imperiled by a looming suspension stemming from a DUI arrest in 2024. If he fails to excel, or if McCarthy shows some growing pains (or both), this side of the deal loses a lot of immediate value.
To me, the make-or-break piece may be Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker. The young running back burst onto the scene as the PPR RB18 as a rookie (RB18 in PPG), followed by the PPR RB22 (RB21 in PPG) in 2023 and PPR RB27 (RB12 in PPG) last season. Once again we have good numbers, but perhaps those that are not league-winning.
Though Walker had his best season in terms of weekly output last year, it is somewhat worrisome that he ran to a near standstill with teammate Zach Charbonnet in most every key metric. Much of this has to do with the fact that Walker missed six contests, but even in games they played together (left panel) there were instances of Charbonnet getting his slice of the pie. Here again, if we’re looking at it from the perspective of potential downside, one could view Walker as a player who hasn’t yet hit peak RB1 status and who could be losing production potential to his teammate.
Last is pick 1.04. If I’m again putting on my Johnny Raincloud costume, I would assert that for both superflex and TE-premium leagues this is a bad year for both positions. Further, unless you’re able to make a trade, there’s a reasonable likelihood that non-quarterbacks Ashton Jeanty and Tetairoa McMillan are already gone. With players like Daniels in 2024 we obviously won’t discount the possibility of rookie year greatness, but my conservative nature asserts that it’s not something I’m counting on.
Robinson and McBride should be two of the best at their positions, but so will Daniels and Thomas. The latter two also have age on their side and play at positions that afford greater longevity, meaning that in addition to 2025 viability they should afford years of dominance. Perhaps most importantly, Daniels should be able to provide an edge at a position begging for it – it’s true that McBride does the same, but that’s where the once and future king may regain his crown.
While it’s acknowledged that 2024 represented a down year for the position, given how poorly he started I was surprised to realize LaPorta finished as the PPR TE7, even while missing a game and part of another. But despite starting dreadfully slow (five of his first six games resulted in single digit outputs in PPR leagues), he closed strong with double-digit outputs in his last six contests. And with nine of 15 games resulting in TE1 performances, the fact is LaPorta was likely doing enough to get by for you.
McBride was unequivocally better than LaPorta in 2024, much as LaPorta did the same the year prior. But while there were a couple of decisive weekly wins, including in a meaningless week 17 affair for McBride, many of the weekly battles were surprisingly close. Considering McBride had 64 more targets than LaPorta, that could be potentially troubling. Of course, targets are earned and as such that’s no slight at McBride, and the quality of LaPorta’s targets were decidedly higher. But it does make you wonder if 2024 represented closer to McBride’s ceiling and LaPorta’s floor.
While acknowledging the Lions offense will look different next season with a new offensive coordinator at the helm, I’m bullish on a bounce-back for LaPorta. It’s important to remember he finished as the PPR TE1 as a rookie, and is now two for two in functioning as a yearly TE1. While admitting this is a subjective opinion, I believe buying the dip on LaPorta will result in a fantasy payoff.
The non-first round picks on the Thomas side are empty calories and as such I don’t account for them much. But even with that potential devaluation, I just can’t look past the star power of Daniels, Thomas and LaPorta. I recognize that Robinson took a major step forward in finishing 2024 as the PPR RB4, it’s not just enough for me to overlook this trio of assets. These are players who should not only provide you with production for years to come, but should minimize your risk and best assure a successful 2025.
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