Four Dynasty Moves To Make: But Wait…
As golf legend and delicious hybrid beverage namesake Arnold Palmer once said: “Timing is everything, in life and in golf.”
And although football is not golf, it is — according to AFC Richmond striker Dani Rojas — “life.”
Timing is also vital in dynasty fantasy football, specifically as it pertains to making trades.
In any trade, we as dynasty managers are always looking to improve our rosters. We want to maximize the return from any deal we make. In order to do that, we must understand the off-season and how its two major roster-shuffling events — NFL free agency and the NFL Draft — can significantly affect the stock of the assets on our rosters and reshape the dynasty landscape overall.
The media buzz and online hype surrounding these events have grown to such levels that their impact on the dynasty market can be seismic despite there not being a snap of actual football being played. Perception is often just as useful as reality when it comes to dynasty values, especially at this time of year.
For example, in late April of 2024, Kyren Williams abruptly dropped from the dynasty RB6 (KeepTradeCut) to the RB11 after the Los Angeles Rams drafted Blake Corum in round three of the 2024 NFL Draft. No football had been played, but the perception that Corum was being drafted to take away production from Williams was very real to dynasty managers, real enough to see an immediate five-spot drop off in his KTC value.
Another example is with rookie draft picks. Conventional wisdom says to hold picks until closer to your rookie draft day, and certainly until after the NFL Draft takes place. The reason is that all of the media attention and overall excitement builds, and demand for those picks goes up.
It is these types of jumps and dives in market value — even subtle ones — that we dynasty managers are trying to get out in front of. Predicting what moves certain NFL teams will make over the course of an off-season can be difficult, but sometimes not.
Remember, teams that struggle in certain areas during the previous season typically try to improve in those areas for the following season. While we cannot always know what exactly a team is thinking, there are certain tea leaves we can try to read and certain dots we can try to connect. Knowing a team’s cap situation as well as their arsenal of draft capital can also factor in. Well-reasoned mock drafts and free agency prediction content can be valuable tools as well to help line up positional needs with which players and prospects might be available.
Even if you as a manager are hesitant to dive deep into all these hypothetical draft scenarios and study each team’s specific cap situations, I believe just a small amount of foresight and clever timing can help you gain an edge in your dynasty leagues during this non-point-scoring season.
Below are four dynasty assets I believe you should move on, but again, timing is everything:
Sell Bryce Young, QB CAR – But Wait Until After the Panthers Add a Significant Offensive Weapon
To be honest, I am still aYoung believer, but it is hard to blame anyone who suffered through all the bad times as a Young manager for wanting to cash out now. He was so utterly bad before being benched in week three that people were speculating that he might never start another game. As such, the idea of getting a late first-early second-round rookie pick for Young at this point might feel like a lottery jackpot.
But I caution you Young managers looking to quickly cut bait. Be patient.
His stock has certainly improved since his benching, but it is not as though Young has risen anywhere close to top-twelve dynasty status yet. Young is currently still just QB19 on KeepTradeCut.com as I write this.
Rather than settling for QB19 returns by cutting bait right now, consider holding Young at least until after the free agency period and the NFL Draft.
The probability that Carolina brings in a significant name on offense feels high given what has been said by Panthers brass as well as their current roster makeup.
Head coach Dave Canales has repeatedly endorsed Young as a franchise cornerstone, stressing that they now need to build around him. GM Dan Morgan currently has just over $24 million in cap space (Sportac) as well as nine draft picks with which to do so.
WR Adam Thielen is an aging, unrestricted free agent who could be on his way out. Rookies Jalen Coker, Xavier Legette and Ja’Tavion Sanders all showed promise as rookies in 2024, but all that excitement about Young’s resurgence would be derailed if the Panthers entered 2025 with those three still-unproven players as their sole weaponry.
Assuming Carolina does bring in a significant weapon for Young, his dynasty stock stands to jump even further.
Imagine if the Panthers were able to make a blockbuster deal for Jets WR Garrett Wilson in a trade or nab someone like Tee Higgins or Chris Godwin in free agency. Even spending an early draft pick to bring in another pass catcher for Young would result in enough media hype and excitement to move the needle on Young’s dynasty value.
Once the excitement over this new addition takes hold, that is when you look to deal Young if that is your wish.
Buy Anthony Richardson, QB IND – But Wait Until the Colts bring in QB competition
Few quarterbacks have fallen from grace as hard as Richardson over the past year. He was KTC’s QB6 just prior to the 2024 season. He currently resides at QB24.
Richardson struggled mightily as a passer in 2024. He topped 250 yards passing just once, against the Jets in week 11, the only time he has done it in his career. Richardson had ten “healthy,” complete games in 2024. He threw eight touchdowns and 12 interceptions in those games. Richardson had twice as many multi-interception games as multi-touchdown pass games.
Richardson’s perceived lack of development as a passer along with the Colts’ unwillingness to trust him over Joe Flacco down the stretch last season was damning for dynasty managers. Many are questioning whether Richardson can ever develop into a good enough passer in order to be a starting QB in the NFL.
With how low Richardson’s dynasty stock has sunk since the beginning of the 2024 season, I still think it has more room to fall. Colts GM Chris Ballard flat out said publicly that Richardson will face competition at quarterback heading into 2025.
“We knew when we took him it was going to be a roller coaster,” Ballard said to reporters of Richardson.
Not exactly a ringing endorsement. Once the Colts do add that competition, either in free agency or the draft, I think Richardson will be even easier to acquire.
It is easy to see why so many dynasty managers have begun to waiver on Richardson in 2025, but I think he is becoming a very good “buy” candidate the more his price drops. If you can truly acquire Richardson — a dynamic, still-22-year-old quarterback — in your superflex leagues for value similar to the likes of Ricky Pearsall, Josh Downs or Tyrone Tracy Jr as KTC claims, then, you need to stop reading this and immediately go submit multiple offers in your leagues for Richardson. Even in the likely event that you have to add a bit more value on top of that in a trade right now in order to dislodge him from his current manager, the upside of Richardson is worth it.
Sell Brock Bowers, TE LV – But Wait Until the Raiders add a QB
Bowers, in my opinion, is one of the biggest “sell” candidates in dynasty right now.
He is a special talent and is coming off an incredible rookie season. It had nothing to do with him as a player. He is the goods. But Bowers’ dynasty value is so insanely high right now that you almost have to bet that it has reached its peak.
Currently, Bowers sits sixth in KTC’s superflex dynasty rankings (TE premium). That’s sixth overall, regardless of position. Only Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson rank ahead of Bowers.
And so, again, while I love Bowers’ real-life ability, if I can swap him for any of the cornerstone dynasty assets ranked in that range such as Joe Burrow, Malik Nabers or some sort of package equal to their value, I am happily taking that deal and running.
True supremacy at the tight end position in fantasy football takes more than talent, as we know. It takes target share dominance, which Bowers certainly displayed in 2024. He accounted for 153 of the Raiders’ 592 targets last season, good for a 25.8% target share.
Is this level of target dominance sustainable from Bowers in 2025 and beyond? Maybe. Maybe not. Lions TE Sam Laporta had a similarly if not quite as dominant rookie season in 2023, earning a 21% target share. Then, as the Lions offense evolved, LaPorta dropped to a 15.9% target share in 2024, with his counting stats also down across the board as well. This all came after the community similarly crowned LaPorta as an elite dynasty asset after his rookie year. TE Kyle Pitts and TE Dalton Kincaid also put up “disappointing” sophomore seasons in recent memory.
Whether or not Bowers remains a truly elite dynasty asset depends greatly on what the Raiders do during free agency and the NFL Draft. No disrespect to Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker, but the Raiders will want to improve on their offensive firepower. Bowers will remain a huge part of Las Vegas’ offense regardless, but it remains to be seen if he can remain the sole centerpiece to the degree he was in 2024.
The elephant in the room for Las Vegas this off-season is obviously the quarterback position. The Raiders cannot trot out QB Aidan O’Connell again in 2025. If new Raiders GM John Spytek makes a splash at quarterback, you may be able to ride that wave of optimism to an even greater return for Bowers if you choose to trade him.
Buy Javonte Williams, RB DEN – But Wait Until the Announcement that He Will Not Be Returning to Denver in 2025
Williams, taken 35th overall in the 2021 NFL Draft, will officially become a free agent when the 2025 league year begins.
It feels unlikely that the Broncos will bring him back on a new contract. Beat writer Chris Tomasson of the Denver Gazette agrees.
Head coach Sean Payton was not involved in drafting Williams, and he seemingly phased out Williams down the stretch last season. Williams’ snap percentage declined every week over the final month of the season, and he finished with only 15 carries over the last four games of the season.
Despite his declining role for the Broncos in 2024, I believe Williams is a great buy candidate and someone I am currently targeting in all of my dynasty leagues for third-round picks.
You just want to time those trade proposals right. Wait until the news breaks that the Broncos have officially decided not to bring Williams back in 2025, and then pounce. His lack of production in addition to the stigma of being unemployed will likely drop Williams’ dynasty price.
Act quickly though, because I think it is likely that some team — possibly a contender with a juicy opportunity for high-value RB touches in 2025 — snatches Williams up in free agency. Once that happens, Williams’ dynasty stock will immediately move back up. So the key is to time your purchase perfectly.
Williams is a talented player and is still 24 years old despite entering his fifth year in the league. Despite his rushing woes, especially late in the season, Williams set a career-high with 52 receptions. That receiving prowess alone will ensure he quickly finds a new employer once Denver lets him go.
Imagine if Williams is scooped up by the Vikings or Chargers. You will be ecstatic to have bought him for pocket change before that news breaks.
Yes, this 2025 rookie running back class looks good, but NFL teams always prefer to address needs before the draft if they can do it economically because it adds risk to be forced into prioritizing certain positions in the draft due to need rather than talent.
Williams offers experience, youth and three-down ability all in the same package, not to mention he will be another year removed from his ACL injury.
- Four Dynasty Moves To Make: But Wait… - February 18, 2025
