Dynasty Trending Observations: Free Agent Frenzy
Free agency, at least the fun part, was over almost as quickly as it started. Within a matter of days, players had new addresses, teams had new depth charts and dynasty players had a wave of developments for them to process.
Below are a few of the bigger moves that will affect every dynasty league.
Atlanta Campaign
Excited to be in Atlanta and become a part of this great organization. My boys and I are learning the Dirty Bird Dance ASAP. Rise Up! pic.twitter.com/kXLYw9PCLf
— Kirk Cousins (@KirkCousins8) March 14, 2024
For as cheesy as Kirk Cousins is, he’s still in the top half of quarterbacks in the NFL and will instantly make the Falcons better. Atlanta landed Cousins after signing him to a four-year, $180 million contract with $100 million guaranteed. In Cousins, the Falcons are getting, at a minimum, a fantasy stud. Before the 2023 season, he threw for over 4,000 yards in seven of his previous eight seasons and at least 25 touchdowns in each of them. That led him to be a top-15 quarterback in every season since 2015 until the shortened 2023 season.
For the Falcons, they have been wandering in the quarterback wilderness ever since franchise legend Matt Ryan departed after the 2021 season. In those two seasons, no Falcons quarterback threw for more than 2,300 yards or 15 touchdowns as Atlanta rode with a combination of Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke. And this despite those quarterbacks having several high draft picks on offense including former number four overall pick Kyle Pitts at tight end, former number eight overall pick Drake London at receiver, and another former number eight overall pick in Bijan Robinson at running back.
You can see how those quarterbacks dragged down those high draft picks during the 2023 season. But the pairing of Cousins with those players has fantasy Twitter buzzing. So what does it mean for them?
Dynasty Impact: Starting with the running game, Bijan Robinson should at least match what he did in his rookie season if not exceed it. Robinson notched 1,400 total yards and eight touchdowns and finished as a top-12 fantasy running back. That jives what former Viking running back Dalvin Cook did in the last four seasons he was paired with Cousins at quarterback in Minnesota as Cook topped 1,300 yards and six touchdowns in each of them.
Receiver Drake London has been consistent but a tad underperforming. He’s averaged close to 900 receiving yards per season over his first two years but is barely a top-50 fantasy receiver so far. And while he does have a better quarterback now, the Falcons also signed receiver Darnell Mooney and traded for Rondale Moore (while shipping off Desmond Ridder). Mooney and Moore were needed to shore up the receiver room after the second-highest target total from a receiver last year (Mack Hollins) saw just 30.
The biggest winner in all this might be Kyle Pitts. He’s also been underwhelming compared to his draft pedigree but he’s also been a top-13 fantasy tight end in two of these three professional seasons. And while Drake London has more competition now for targets, Atlanta let tight end Jonnu Smith go in free agency and signed blocking tight end Charlie Woerner. Pitts has the talent now the deck is cleared of competition for targets.
Where There Is A Will, There Is A Way
The Titans offense with new HC Brian Callahan:
🏈QB Will Levis
🏈RB Tony Pollard
🏈RB Tyjae Spears
🏈WR Calvin Ridley
🏈WR DeAndre Hopkins
🏈TE Chigoziem Okonkwo https://t.co/Dqgj1JaTEz— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 13, 2024
If you were to pick one player who won the off-season, it may be Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis. After surviving free agency, where the Titans declined to bring in any competition, Tennessee went on a spending spree. They signed running back Tony Pollard to replace franchise legend Derrick Henry; signed offensive lineman Lloyd Cushenberry to anchor the offensive line; and the big one in receiver Calvin Ridley who was signed to a $92 million contract with $50 million of it guaranteed. Those players will join holdovers from the 2023 Titans offense including running back Tyjae Spears, receiver DeAndre Hopkins (for now), and tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo. Thanks to the additions, the Titans have set up Will Levis about as good as they could.
Dynasty Impact: According to our DLF rankings, Levis is currently the 20th-ranked quarterback and this is before the draft will add three or four quarterbacks in and around where Levis is ranked. Levis may not be there yet to be a target in 1QB leagues but he would be a fantastic value in superflex leagues. His current ranking equates to a mid-second-round pick in rookie drafts. This draft is strong when it comes to quarterback (and receiver), but a mid-second for a starting quarterback with those weapons would be worth it, especially for a superflex dynasty team that is lacking a second quarterback.
Eagle Sign
Saquon Barkley was hit in the backfield on 46.6% of his carries in 2023, the 3rd highest rate of regular RBs per @FTNFantasy.
D'Andre Swift was hit in the backfield on 27.9% of his carries in 2023, the lowest rate of regular RBs. https://t.co/MH2xvnS50H
— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) March 11, 2024
Two-time Pro Bowl running back Saquon Barkley has officially jumped ship from the New York Giants to the division-rival Philadelphia Eagles. It ended a tenure in New York that started strong. After being selected with the second overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, Barkley topped 2,000 total yards in his rookie season and close to 1,500 yards in his second. Then he suffered a catastrophic ACL injury that took him several years to climb back from but he did totaling 1,600 yards in 2022 and another 1,200 in 2023. He’ll now take his talents to Philadelphia where he will be a major part of the Tush Push offense.
Dynasty Impact: As described above, we know how good Barkley can be. But how will it translate on the Eagles offense? In the two seasons that Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have been performing as one of the better units, both Miles Sanders and D’Andre Swift had 1,000-yard rushing seasons. No one would mistake Sanders or Swift for Barkley so the latter should have no problem continuing to be a fantasy stud.
But be cautious before thinking about acquiring Barkley. He’s entering his age-27 season and, as a running back, probably doesn’t have many Pro Bowl seasons left. If you’re a current Barkley dynasty manager, hold on to him so you can make a run at a league championship. If you’re not a current Barkley manager, don’t spend anything to get him as you’re better off drafting a younger model.
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