Three Quarterbacks with Unsustainable Touchdown Rates
Each NFL season is unique, surprising, and thrilling. Players under and overperform, get injured, or simply run into easy or difficult parts of their schedule, making it difficult to figure out what is real and what isn’t. One simple way to determine if a player’s current level of play is the new norm or just a flash in the pan is by looking at their touchdown rate, especially with NFL QBs. NFL quarterbacks average around a 4.5% TD rate in any given season. Good QBs will usually live in the five-to-six percent range, and the top NFL QBs can sometimes even top six percent. It takes a rare season for a player to score beyond that range, so it’s important to see who may be overperforming in that department, with a chance to regress in the near future.
Sam Darnold, QB MIN
Our first player was someone I spotted as a potential regression candidate early on and may have very well already “hit the wall”. Darnold was a complete surprise for everyone this season, with few holding out hope for a solid season. With expectations low, it was easy to get excited about his start to the season, tossing two touchdowns in each of his first two games, and then four and three in weeks three and four, respectively. Fantasy players began to let go of their fears for players like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and the chatter quickly turned to things like Darnold being the Comeback Player of the Year and possibly holding the starting job in future years.
What people weren’t focusing on were the peripheral numbers behind the touchdowns. In those four weeks where Darnold scored a combined 11 touchdowns, he never threw for 300 yards in a game, was around or below 200 yards twice, and never attempted more than 28 passes in a game. Without extreme efficiency, it would be difficult to keep that kind of scoring up, and that has proven to be true the past two weeks. In weeks five and seven (week six bye), Darnold only threw one touchdown, total. His attempts per game have stayed about the same, and his yardage only dropped against a stout Jets defense, but regression hit hard in the touchdown department.
You may be asking yourself why I’m writing about Darnold if the regression bug has already hit, and that’s a fair question, but the truth is that even with the two bad games, Darnold is still sitting at a 7.3% TD rate. His start to the season was so hot that fantasy players may be willing to forgive the past couple of weeks, hoping for more like the first few weeks. I would recommend against that and take advantage of potential fantasy players holding out hope. I’m sure Darnold will have some decent weeks to round out the season, but they will be difficult to predict unless something else changes.
Baker Mayfield, QB TB
This one hurts to write out, as a big fan of the player, and someone who has been through the entire Baker Mayfield roller coaster of a career. Fantasy players were worried about the departure of Dave Canales and what effect that would have on Mayfield, but he calmed those fears by throwing for four touchdowns in week one, on his way to a top-three fantasy finish. In week two, Mayfield wasn’t asked to do much, only attempting 19 passes, and week three saw his worst performance of the season. Getting back on track in week four, Mayfield threw for two, three, and four touchdowns in his next three respective games, finishing as a top-ten QB in all three matchups and top-five in two – and added three more TDs on Monday night.
While I would love to see the fantasy scoring continue, I have to believe that Mayfield will come down to earth a bit, especially if he continues on with half of his games having under 200 yards passing. It may be time to make a move to take advantage before it’s too late.
Jordan Love, QB GB
That brings us to our most extreme regression candidate yet, Jordan Love. Love is currently QB7 according to DLF’s October SF ADP, being drafted as a first-round player in current mock drafts. Love’s 8.4% TD rate screams regression, but I doubt that many fantasy managers are paying attention to it. Love has only passed for more than 260 yards once on the season, and it was his week four performance, where he attempted nearly double the number of passes than any other week this season. Love’s 54 week-four pass attempts were actually more than double his attempts in week six, showing how much of an outlier game it was.
Continuing at this rate of passing and completion rate, we can expect Love’s numbers to be substantially lower moving forward, with him looking more like a mid-range QB2 than the top-10 quarterback we’ve seen so far. Even if we project Love to continue with a top-tier level of TD efficiency of 6%, we would only expect 2.148 touchdowns per game. Those numbers would be even lower if he regresses to the 5.5% rate that he threw for last season. Considering he is currently averaging 3.0 touchdowns per week right now, it’s easy to see why now is the time to look into trading away Love.
Love’s dynasty value has never been higher, and now is the time to take advantage of dynasty managers who are desperate for points. Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams, and Brock Purdy are all being drafted behind Love, giving us the potential to get a more sustainable player and potentially even something on top. I understand that the Packers have a juicy matchup against the Jaguars, which may make you want to wait a week, but regression waits for no one, so I would recommend using that matchup as a negotiating tactic in your trade dealings.
While touchdown rate can be a valuable indicator of a player’s true level of play, it’s important to consider other factors such as passing volume, efficiency, and game script. Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and Jordan Love have all shown signs of regression despite their impressive touchdown rates. Fantasy managers should be cautious when evaluating these players and consider trading them away while their value is still high. While it can be tempting to chase touchdowns, it’s crucial to make informed decisions based on a comprehensive analysis of a player’s performance.
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