Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades
Taking advantage of potential valuation trends in the trade market is imperative. That is even more true during the season when players can experience wild valuation changes on a week-to-week basis. Each week, I will be highlighting some players you should be looking to move or acquire and the reasons why.
Buy – Josh Jacobs, RB GB
There are 22 running backs in the league who have seen at least 60 carries. Of those 22, no back has scored fewer touchdowns than Josh Jacobs. He has one, despite the fact he has carried the ball 108 times. That is a 0.9% TD rate, which pails in comparison to his career average of 3.3%. It looks slightly more ridiculous when you throw in that he has had 14 carries inside the red zone and nine inside the 10-yard line. Jacobs has been playing some fantastic football but currently sits as the RB21 largely because he hasn’t found the endzone. Suppose you were to give him his career TD rate and award him two touchdowns that would put him as the overall RB13 just ahead of Jahmyr Gibbs. You may be thinking very differently about him if that was the case.
To further emphasize the gap, Jordan Love currently leads the league in a passing TD rate of 8.2%. There is a high chance that both these numbers regress, and we see the Packers and Jacobs scoring more touchdowns on the ground. Should that happen, Jacobs can start producing low-end RB1 numbers without you having to pay up to acquire him. The trade analyzer has him currently worth a late 2025 first. However, given his relative anonymity so far this season, you may be able to acquire him cheaper than that right now. Jacobs could be the perfect win now, running back for a contender to target who is currently hiding in plain sight.
Sell – Will Levis, QB TEN
There is selling high, selling low, and then there’s just getting out on an asset before the bottom falls out. Levis is definitely in the later section. He started the season playing some encouraging football with some silly mistakes. However, more recently, his play has deteriorated, particularly this last Sunday he was consistently missing throws he should be making. I firmly believe it is only a matter of time before the Titans move on from him as their starting quarterback, at which point his value would significantly drop. If you could be proactive and acquire a future second-round pick in exchange for him, I would make that move instantly. If you can’t acquire picks, you may be able to move to an undervalued quarterback who could be starting very soon; Russell Wilson would be a perfect target.
Buy – Troy Franklin, WR DEN
I was high on Franklin as a prospect before the draft. However, when he fell to day three of the draft, his fantasy prospects were considerably dented. To start the season, he had barely seen the field and hadn’t played 20 snaps in a single game. However, on Sunday, things changed. He was second on the team in snaps at the WR positions with 37 snaps, and while he didn’t see a tremendous amount of work, seeing only three targets of 28 snaps, the overall workload is very encouraging. If Franklin can start to carve out a role as a starting receiver playing most of the snaps, he could be fantasy-relevant through the second half of the year, particularly as his college quarterback is playing under center for the Broncos.
Given his relatively anonymous start to the season, you may be able to steal Franklin away for as little as a future third-round pick or potentially even less. This may be a case of buying now and waiting for it to increase in value.
Sell – Darnell Mooney, WR ATL
Mooney is currently the WR19 on the season. Yes, you read that correctly. While I liked Mooney as a cheap flier to begin the season, I didn’t expect this production level. Whenever a veteran player like this pops up on the radar, it usually takes a few weeks for the market to catch up on the price, as everyone expects it to be a flash in the pan. The expectation is that there will be a regression to the mean, and Mooney will return to being an average player.
However, once you get to a trend of six or seven weeks, people tend to buy into the production, and their value begins to catch up. We’re approaching that point with Mooney, and people are starting to believe it. It also helps that the Falcons seem to be on national TV almost every week. So now is the time to be looking to pivot away from Mooney.
I am a huge fan of Drake London and believe this offense will always run through him. You’ve then got Bijan Robinson, who will consistently get his. It feels like Mooney’s production is precarious, and while he could continue to produce, I would rather cash out and reinvest in potential or a safer asset. If you could get a second-round pick right now, that feels like a great walk-off point considering what you probably paid to acquire him.
One to Watch – Jalen McMillan, WR TB
Usually, this section is dedicated to a player who has flashed in a small sample size or perhaps earned a more significant role. However, I wanted to place the one to watch on McMillan this week. To start the year, he saw encouraging usage and played a significant volume of snaps, and he looked good in those plays. However, having missed two weeks due to injury, he returned to the lineup and barely played. He was running as the WR4 behind Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Sterling Shepard. He also played on special teams for the first time this year. It may be the Buccaneers are easing him back into the frame, but if this trend continues, it would be alarming for a rookie to be going backwards this early in his career.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades - January 2, 2025
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades - December 26, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades - December 19, 2024
