Dynasty Decision: Jake Ferguson
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Jake Ferguson, TE DAL
Tight end is a difficult position in dynasty because production can sometimes appear out of nowhere. Ferguson was that type of player in 2023. He was not a highly touted draft pick and was somewhat irrelevant in 2022. However, last season, he was a consistent performer who helped fill a gap in many dynasty rosters. Now, he is being valued as a reliable dynasty asset. Should you get out, or can you rely on him moving forward?
Previous Performance
As a prospect out of Wisconsin, Ferguson was not a player who was hyped, and huge things weren’t expected. He ended up being drafted in the fourth round by the Cowboys and spent his rookie year as a bit part player, playing 430 snaps but only seeing 22 total targets across the season. The advanced numbers were a little more encouraging, with a yards per route run number of 1.66 and targets per route run of 21%. Despite those encouraging numbers, seeing him put up the numbers he did in 2023 was a slight surprise.
During his sophomore campaign, Ferguson established himself as the number two target on the Cowboys. His raw volume was fantastic – he saw 102 targets, leading to him finishing as the overall TE9. However, if you take a step back, the underlying production was worse for Ferguson going from year one to year two. His yards per route run number dropped from 1.66 to 1.46, and his targets per route run dropped from 21% to 18.4%. The only thing that changed was the raw volume, which increased as he was on the field more often.
Situation and Usage
The situation in Dallas is a good one for Ferguson. Outside of CeeDee Lamb, there are no elite receiving options, and Ferguson will likely see over 100 targets again this year with the opportunity to see far more. He will also be moved around the formation to be given advantageous matchups, with 40% of his snaps occurring either in the slot or out wide last season. Despite the target volume, Ferguson is not a hugely efficient player and relies heavily on the large volume to see fantasy production.
The other looming question mark is Dak Prescott‘s lack of a long-term contract. If Prescott were to walk away as a free agent at the end of the 2024 season, it would have a catastrophic impact on Ferguson’s fantasy production and dynasty value.
Contract
Ferguson is still playing on his rookie contract, and while he will be eligible for an extension after the 2023 season, it is unlikely the Cowboys will extend him until during or after the 2025 season. Realistically, how Ferguson plays over the 2024 season will have a huge impact on how soon he is extended and what that extension looks like.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the TE12 in July ADP and the 111th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth a 2025 second-round pick in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Ferguson is a player I struggle with in dynasty. He is in a great situation and is likely to see bankable volume. However, he is an efficient player who does not add value to his targets. He doesn’t add anything major after the catch, and in terms of targets per route run, he saw a figure below 20% last season. If he sees fewer snaps and routes for some reason, it could be catastrophic for his fantasy production. Likely, that would only come in the event of an injury. However, the Cowboys spent a 2023 second-round pick on Luke Schoonmaker, who could eat into Ferguson’s role in 2024.
As a fantasy asset, I am always scared of players who are reliant on volume and situation for their production because if something changes, their production can fall off a cliff. Ferguson feels like that type of player. He doesn’t possess a phenomenal ceiling, yet the floor could fall out in a hurry.
In terms of price, he also falls in a value zone that I don’t understand, targeting tight ends. He is not a difference maker and is unlikely to have that in his range of outcomes, and year after year, we see undervalued players at the position pop up out of nowhere and produce. Rather than paying up for average production from a player like Ferguson, I would rather acquire two or three cheaper players with the same potential ceiling but at half the price.
I would be looking to pivot off of Ferguson, no matter the situation of my roster. You have two options: either tier up and target an elite player at the position. Add a small asset, like perhaps a second-round pick, and you could acquire TJ Hockenson, Kyle Pitts, or Travis Kelce. Or you could pivot and go the other way, tiering down and adding an additional asset. Could you acquire Pat Freiermuth and a third-round pick, or Hunter Henry and Noah Fant?
Ferguson has a lot of inherent risk as an asset without any upside to warrant embracing the risk. For me, he is the perfect player to pivot off quickly while his value is still high.
- Dynasty Decision: Michael Pittman - April 11, 2025
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- Dynasty Decision: Anthony Richardson - March 28, 2025
