Dynasty Decision: D’Andre Swift
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
D’Andre Swift, RB CHI
Swift has had a challenging fantasy career. He has teased potential and has, at times, been held up as a dynasty superstar, going third overall in ADP at the end of the 2021 season. However, he has never put it together to produce anything more than RB2 numbers for an entire season. Now on his third team in three years, could the Bears’ offense finally be the one that unlocks him and allows him to realize that potential?
Previous Performance
After the Lions selected Swift with an early second-round pick in the 2020 draft, there were high hopes that Swift could be a fantasy superstar given his receiving ability and threat in the open field. He split the backfield touches with Adrian Peterson, and despite seeing only 35% of running back rush attempts, he still finished as the RB17 overall, largely due to his receiving work and high efficiency.
Heading into the 2021 season, many people wondered what Swift could do with a larger share of the backfield. However, the Lions then signed Jamaal Williams in free agency to again complement Swift. That, combined with another few games missed due to injuries, meant a disappointing RB15 finish, although his 16.1 points per game were worthy of a top-ten finish.
The 2022 season was one to forget as injuries hit again, and Williams took the share of the backfield. Swift didn’t see 100 rushing attempts and was largely phased out as the team fed Williams on the ground. He still managed to see enough volume in the passing game to finish as a back-end RB2, but it was clear the Lions coaching staff didn’t see a future for him, and he was traded after the draft along with a seventh-rounder to the Eagles for a measly fourth and sixth-round pick.
Situation and Usage
Anytime a player changes teams, there is always a question mark about how he will be used. Swift landed with the Chicago Bears and will share a backfield with Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert. The expectation is that Swift will be the lead back and see most of the receiving game work. Although there is a chance it is much more of an even split backfield and Swift struggles for the raw volume like he has through the first four seasons of his career. There is also a slight concern that the receiving volume may be limited, given the plethora of wide receivers the Bears currently possess. DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and Rome Odunze make up one of the best wide receiver trios in the league. Add Cole Kmet, who is a competent tight end, to this. There are only so many targets to go around.
Contract
Having just signed a three-year $24m contract with the Bears, Swift is likely in a secure spot for at least the next two seasons. In 2026 the Bears could save $7.5m by moving on from the running back, which could mean the contract ends up being more of a two-year deal rather than the three-year contract he signed.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the RB18 in June ADP and the 82nd overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth the equivalent of 1.12 or a little more than two future seconds in a superflex league. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Swift is a player with whom it is easy to fall in love. He can score from anywhere on the field and is utilized consistently in the receiving game. He has the potential to be a fantasy superstar. However, he has never consistently put it together for fantasy. Despite being given a decent opportunity, he has never finished inside the top 12 running backs in the season. Now entering his fifth season on his third team, it is difficult to get too excited about his prospects, especially when you add that he is sharing a backfield with two competent backs in Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson.
Now, baking in the cost of RB18 overall is just a price I can’t get on board with. Given his historic production and current split backfield, he is too expensive. I would be looking to proactively move off of Swift if you can get anything near his current price on the market. For two future seconds, I would hit accept instantly. I would also rather pivot to a player who could help me win now (Derrick Henry or Joe Mixon) or a piece who has potential upside in the future (Jonathon Brooks or Trey Benson). Whether you’re a rebuilder or contender, I struggle to see a situation where the return on investment of D’Andre Swift is worth it.
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