Dynasty Decision: Tony Pollard
We all know the pain of holding onto that stud player too long as their production evaporates and your once highly-priced asset becomes worthless. There are also plenty of cases of players being sold expecting that decline only to continue defying the odds. This series will examine what you should do as players approach these decision points.
Tony Pollard, RB TEN
Pollard went from an unheralded fantasy afterthought to a player who produced elite numbers while sharing a backfield with Ezekiel Elliott. Huge things were then expected heading into the 2023 season, and he largely disappointed. Finding a new home in free agency with the Tennessee Titans, will Pollard bounce back to fantasy stardom or languish in mediocrity? What does that mean for his dynasty value?
Previous Performance
As a fourth-round pick out of Memphis, Pollard was expected to be a situational complement to Ezekiel Elliott, who would also be used on special teams for his electric return abilities. For the first two years of his career, he played that role well, didn’t see any significant volume, and flashed his explosive ability alongside the workhorse Elliott.
However, during the 2021 season, Pollard began to see an increase in workload and finished the season as one of the most efficient players on a per-touch basis. Of the 48 backs to see 100 carries, Pollard was second in yards per attempt, fourth in yards after contact per attempt, and second in yards per route run. That phenomenal efficiency led to a much more significant role in 2022, where, despite only seeing 193 carries and 55 targets, he finished as the RB7 for fantasy.
With Elliott leaving in free agency and Pollard playing on the franchise tag, there were massive expectations placed on Pollard’s shoulders heading into the 2023 season. To highlight this, he was the RB5 in redraft ADP. However, despite all the hype and expectation, he was slow to start the season, something he blamed on the slow recovery from his broken leg and high ankle sprain that he suffered in the playoff game at the end of the 2022 season. Tony Pollard declared himself “back” after the week 11 game versus the Panthers, and from that point on, he led all running backs in Pro Football Focus rushing grade.
Situation and Usage
Understanding the exact situation for Pollard is a challenge as he landed in Tennessee in free agency, and therefore, any expectation around his situation or usage will be largely projection. While the Titans have continued to add resources to the offensive line, it is still likely to be a below-average group. A serious question mark hangs over the quarterback position with Will Levis under center. I am incredibly hopeful that he builds on his rookie season and becomes an above-average starter, but there are several hurdles he needs to jump to get to that point. And finally, Pollard will share a backfield with the Titans’ 2023 third-round pick Tyjae Spears. Spears flashed in limited usage as a rookie and profiles as an interesting back due to his ability to contribute on all three downs but, particularly in the passing game. That is where you would expect Pollard to shine.
This backfield will be difficult to project, but I expect it to end up as a 60/40 split in favor of Pollard. The majority of the dynasty world would probably suggest it would be closer, but I believe the Titans have spent considerable resources on Pollard and are likely to want to feed him the ball to make the most of it. Given the expected receiving usage and Pollard’s efficiency as a rusher, he could produce RB1 numbers despite the split in the backfield.
Contract
Signing a three-year $21.75m contract in free agency was a serious commitment from the Titans. Guaranteeing the majority of the first two seasons was an even bigger commitment. Given that the Titans would only save $1.5m in cap space should they release Pollard after the 2024 season, it stands to reason that he will be in Tennessee for at least two seasons. There are not many running backs not on rookie contracts who you can be confident of their home for the next two seasons.
ADP and Trade Value
He is the RB25 in June ADP and the 115th overall player. The trade analyzer has him worth a random 2025 second and third or the equivalent of the 2.11 in the 2024 draft. Recent trades are below:
Conclusion
Tony Pollard is a divisive player in fantasy. He burned many people last season as the hopes were astronomical, only for them to be disappointed when he returned, midding RB2 numbers. However, now fully healthy and in a solid spot, he should be able to significantly outproduce his current price.
Pollard is unlikely to cost your team a title at his current price. If the trade analyzer and recent trades are anything to go by, paying a mid to late second for any player will not cripple your dynasty roster. However, he has the talent and the potential to almost single-handedly win you a title. He is the type of player you should be taking a bet on as a mediocre team looking to take some risks to give your roster the potential upside of winning a title.
If you’re rebuilding, you should actively acquire players like Pollard, who are undervalued but have the potential to see a sharp spike in value should they start the season off strong.
There is absolutely a significant amount of risk, as Pollard could struggle in his new home or lose too many touches to Tyjae Spears. However, that risk is more than baked into his current price. Few players in this price bracket have the ceiling of Pollard, and I think, whatever your roster situation, he is well worth the risk.
- Dynasty Decision: Tony Pollard - June 21, 2024
- Dynasty Decision: Cooper Kupp - June 14, 2024
- Dynasty Decision: Travis Etienne - May 24, 2024
