Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Trading for Josh Jacobs or Brandon Aiyuk
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
As I was ruled out this weekend with an injury designation of “migraine,” our wonderful DLF editors gave me an extra day to author this week’s Mailbag. The least I can do is repay their kindness is to not blather on in today’s preamble!
Let’s get to it!
From the Old-School Webform …
Take a Bet on a Vet
I have a team I think will contend next year in my eight-team, non-PPR league, and there are a couple of veterans in my league on rebuilding teams I’m thinking about targeting, Josh Jacobs and Brandon Aiyuk. Jacobs has an out in his contract with the Packers next season and the 49ers and Aiyuk seem to be in a stalemate on his deal. I would probably trade Tyjae Spears+ for Jacobs and Zay Flowers+ for Aiyuk. Am I being too shortsighted with these players and their contract situations? What would you be willing to give up for these pivots? – Tommy in Florida
To begin, I like the overall intention of these potential moves. You’re pushing your chips to the center of the table as you believe yourself to be a contender, and in doing so are seeking out the best fantasy assets in the bunch. While this isn’t particularly earth-shattering in an off-season trade between contenders and rebuilding squads, your league format makes it particularly noteworthy.
Put simply, unless the starting requirements are absolutely monstrous, you won’t win an eight-team league unless you’re slotting in studs at near every position. To be clear, there is utility in depth pieces such as Spears, but consider the lay of the land at running back and receiver using the 2023 fantasy statistics.
Of course, Christian McCaffrey is an outlier, but there is a clear trend at the end of each tier. The standard-scoring RB8 (Rachaad White) was 35 points clear of the RB16 (Isiah Pachecho), who was 19 points clear of the RB24 (Alvin Kamara), who was 22 points clear of the RB32 (Javonte Williams). There are always arguments to be made in terms of points per game for players who didn’t stay healthy, but these are the points that were scored, and it was the top tier who scored them at a disproportionately higher rate before the drop-off curve effectively flattened. This effectively highlights the importance of stud players, while also showing replaceability of depth pieces.
This is even more pronounced at receiver, which is sensible given the greater depth of the position.
Jacobs didn’t have the finest 2023 season by any stretch, but he’ll be on a better offense than Spears and is likely to see far more touches. While we cannot conclusively predict the future, unless you believe his wheels fell off (and the Packers obviously don’t), he should be much closer to his 2022 numbers, or at least a healthy Aaron Jones’ 2023 per-game output. I actually like Spears quite a bit, but actions speak louder than words – I think he’ll force more of a timeshare with free agent acquisition Tony Pollard than many think, but the fact is the former Cowboy received $10.5 million guaranteed in a depressed market. Spears also has potential longevity concerns given the state of his knee leaving college, which I would put on par with any potential contract imbroglio for Jacobs.
While noting this is only an approximation (10-team, PPR league setting), you’ll probably need to add some decent beef to your side of the deal. If you could add a future second-round pick and get the deal done that would be optimal, but in absence of that, it might take a young talent like Jameson Williams.
As for Aiyuk, I also like this attempt at leveling up. Just last week I waxed poetic about Zay Flowers’ future dynasty fortunes, and in short I’m a big believer in his talent. But Aiyuk has proven both a high floor (successive 1,000-yard seasons) and ceiling (1,300 yards last season, and a finish as the standard WR10), and is still only 26 years old. I can understand the contract drama, and these things don’t always work out – but I still think it’s more likely he lands an extension similar to what fellow disgruntled pass catcher Justin Jefferson just received. I would further view the draft selection of Ricky Pearsall as more of a hedge on Deebo Samuel’s increasing age and inability to stay on the field. Every player comes with concerns of some sort, but I’m not yet fretting about Aiyuk’s future as a ‘Niner.
To close the deal I suspect you may need to add multiple second-round picks to your side, or perhaps entertain swapping your future first for a lower pick in return. A player like Christian Watson may also get you over the finish line.
To the overarching philosophy, there’s no such thing as “overthinking.” You’re considering all the variables in the equation and weighting each one accordingly. But in a setting where you need studs to win, and more importantly where nothing is guaranteed on a weekly basis let alone a yearly basis, I like where your head’s at.
From Discord…
Can You Diggs It?
Which of these two trades would you prefer for a contending team in a 14-team, 1QB PPR league – Stefon Diggs for Jake Ferguson and two third-round picks, or Diggs and Zach Charbonnet for Mark Andrews and a 2026 second-round pick?
While perhaps seemingly backwards, I’ll start by addressing the ancillary pieces in the deal. First, the draft picks.
To be clear, I typically view mid-round selections and future non-first-round picks, particularly those that are still two years out, as little more than window dressing. But while the exact third-round picks aren’t specified, the best-case scenario is pick #29. While we’ve all found diamonds in the rough, in general I just don’t count on it happening. As such, this relative valuation seems about right to me. It’s true the second-round pick won’t bear fruit until 2026, but it should appreciate in value over time, and could possibly be as high as pick #15. This alone gives it a much better chance of hitting.
Continuing with Charbonnet, who despite his talent and draft capital has emerged as one of 2023’s biggest rookie losers. This wasn’t unanticipated, as he was drafted into a near league worst scenario behind second-year player and fellow former second-round pick Kenneth Walker. But while nearly 700 total yards were solid, one rushing score isn’t going to get it done in fantasy land. With his best case looking like the “1b” part of a timeshare, he remains an elite handcuff but isn’t a player you’d be otherwise looking to start. At the running back position this dampens his outlook as a speculative buy, though rebuilding squads could seek to target cheap trades.
Now to the main courses.
I’m not sure what to make of Diggs, particularly given his “tale of two seasons” in 2023.
There’s no way to sugarcoat the above. Following a torrid start that yielded five 100+ yard efforts in six contests, Diggs could only eclipse 70 yards three more times. This included six games under 50 yards, and only two scores from week 9 onward. There were clearly issues between Diggs and quarterback Josh Allen, and ostensibly the coaching staff as well, given his off-season trade. But at the end of the day Allen is an elite signal caller, and never had a problem getting Diggs the rock before. And though I love the landing spot in Houston with emerging stud CJ Stroud, Diggs will turn 31 during the season. If owners are not already asking the hard questions, they need to start.
Given the totality of the above, I would quite easily take the Mark Andrews deal. I spoke to Andrews’ dynasty outlook last week, and suffice it to say it remains rosy. He’s a stud at a position largely devoid of them, and as such gives you a weekly competitive advantage. He’s the best asset in the deal, and the future second is preferable to Charbonnet as well.
The Jake Ferguson deal is more interesting. It would be easy to write him off as something of a “no name,” despite his 2023 output resulting in a finish as the PPR TE9. When it comes to mid-to-late round talents who seemingly come out of nowhere, it becomes somewhat easier to write them off as one-year wonders who will be supplanted by players with better draft capital – this is something I’ve been guilty of, myself, and it’s why we become slow to come around on the Pachecos of the world.
But I’m in on Ferguson’s staying power. The Cowboys didn’t do anything in the 2024 NFL Draft to address the position, and behind all-world talent CeeDee Lamb is only the aging Brandin Cooks. Much as he was in 2023, Ferguson stands likely to be the second target in the passing game, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he eclipsed last season’s 102 targets.
Still, his “Kirkland brand” value (his current ADP is 113.50) creates opportunity. If it’s the Ferguson deal that’s desired, I’d try to change those two third-round picks into a second, or seek a better secondary asset in general. As a Diggs owner myself I cannot deny being nervous about his future – while I’d love to get a proven stud like Andrews, using Diggs’ name to cash out in a deal that seems flawed on the surface could still wind up as a winner.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: A Receiver Trade and Christian Kirk vs a First-Round Pick - June 25, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Sam LaPorta on Track for Greatness? - June 18, 2024
- 2024 Dynasty Division Outlook: AFC West - June 14, 2024
