Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Tight Ends to Trade For
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
Voluntary workouts have begun, which means it’s time for our favorite onlooker game show of the year – Will He or Won’t He Report!? Okay, so the training camp version is probably better, and truth be told it’s hard to get bent out of shape in May. Still, the collection of these early data points may help us discern an eventual trend – let’s not forget some bridges are never rebuilt after getting burned, with prominent recent examples including Carson Wentz and Antonio Brown. As Ralph Waldo Emerson said: “there is no knowledge that is not power.”
Let’s get to it!
From the Old-School Webform…
Maye the Odds be Ever in your Nabers
In a deep 12-team superflex PPR league I have picks 1.02, 1.04 and 1.05. Another team has picks 1.01 and 1.03. I only have Bryce Young and Russell Wilson for my quarterbacks, and the word is the other guy is dead set on Caleb Williams at 1.01 and a receiver at 1.03. Do I play it safe and take Jayden Daniels at 1.02 knowing I can still get Malik Nabers? Or do I trust the rumor and take Marvin Harrison Jr 1.02 and hope my opponent takes Nabers at 1.03 and leaves me Daniels? – Adam in Colorado
First and foremost, file this one under “good problem to have.” While nothing is for certain as it relates to how these players will ultimately pan out, the fact of the matter is you will have a choice of five players who were selected in the first six picks of the NFL Draft. While it’s not an exact science, I love when my fantasy draft pick capital aligns with the real-life selections.
Past that, I don’t truthfully have an answer for you. To be clear I know what I would personally do, which is take Harrison at pick 1.02. But this is because I have him within a tier but just slightly above Nabers, and I also have Daniels and Patriots rookie signal caller Drake Maye neck and neck. Given where these picks fall, a selection of Harrison at 1.02 will result in either two top-three NFL draft pick quarterbacks at 1.04 and 1.05, or one of said quarterbacks and Nabers. Conversely, if you pass on Harrison, it seems extraordinarily unlikely he’ll come back to you at pick 1.03.
But again, we’re talking about former superstar collegiate players who are all walking into situations where they can and should immediately prosper, and who are thought highly of by both NFL and fantasy talent evaluators alike. I mention this because it will invariably result in a compression of relative valuation, and discerning signal from the noise will vary from owner to owner. For me again personally, I have Williams in a tier of his own, followed by Harrison, Daniels and Maye in a second tier with Nabers perhaps a half-tier behind. Others might group these players differently or introduce receiver Rome Odunze, meaning there will undoubtedly be variance fueled by the opinions of single owners. To help illustrate that point, consider DLF’s own rookie superflex rankings.
I’ll conclude by saying given your current situation at quarterback, I’d personally avoid any attempts at consolidating your options unless it involves players or future assets. While it’s true you have the draft capital to change your destiny, I think casting a wider net is the prudent approach here. As always it’s never a bad idea to consider all possible outcomes, but I believe you’ll be able to get three great players by playing the board as it currently sits.
The Beginning of the (Tight) End(s)
Who are the top five tight ends to trade for if the goal is to win it all within two years? – Alex in New Jersey
Great question, and one that requires some guardrails. To use an example, the answer to every “which tight end…” question that involves a desire to win should begin and end with Sam LaPorta. He was the PPR TE1 as a rookie, and has a vast future ahead of him. But that doesn’t really answer the question, which I do believe is also introducing a component of value hunting, or at least throwing caution to the wind as it relates to depreciating assets.
So here goes…
1. Mark Andrews, TE BAL – Just because we’re adding nuance doesn’t mean the first answer can’t be obvious. In normal circumstances Andrews would have a great case as the dynasty TE1, but LaPorta’s youth takes the day, and recency bias likely remembers Andrews’ injury-marred 2023 season. I choose to see a player who remains quarterback Lamar Jackson’s top option, and one who is already healthy and ready to tackle 2024. Per his value change since 2023, there could be an opening.
2. Travis Kelce, TE KC – Again, no need to get cute. While I’ve written multiple times about my reservations with the Chiefs veteran, he’s a lock to finish as a top three-five tight end if he maintains his health.
3. Evan Engram, TE JAC – Though it might be hard to believe, and while noting it was in part due to injury, it’s Engram who has led the Jaguars in targets over the past two seasons. And while I’m not as big a fan of quarterback Trevor Lawrence as are others, he gets Engram the rock. 2023 second-round rookie Brenton Strange didn’t make any headway last season, meaning volume is virtually assured in 2024.
4. Dallas Goedert, TE PHI – I’ve thought Goedert has been overpriced in recent years, but he now finds himself as a TE2 in the current ADP, as the PPR TE13 overall. Given his ceiling as a PPR TE1 as shown by his weekly finish buckets over the past two years, this makes the 29-year-old a buy for owners looking for a cheaper fix at the position.
5. Pat Freiermuth, TE PIT – Probably not the name you were thinking, given his disastrous 2023 campaign. Though while Freiermuth perhaps doesn’t fit the archetype given his relative youth at 25 years old, I believe he should return to the form that saw him finish as the PPR TE13 as a rookie, and the PPR TE7 in 2022. As the PPR TE16, the price is also right to buy the dip and bet on a 2024 bounce back.
While it pains me to leave George Kittle out of the mix, I’d have a hard time paying TE10 prices for the 30-year-old’s weekly yoyo routine. If you can get him more cheaply he’s an immediate starter, but the 49ers represent one of the more challenging teams to predict on a weekly basis outside of running back Christian McCaffrey.
From Twitter…
Dalton Kin-Trade?
Hey Eric, on a contending team would you trade Kincaid for Andrews?
Wondering how you evaluate for anticipated increased production in the current season with Andrews vs more years of production down the road with Kincaid.
Also, how much value is there in pivoting to McBride?
— Thomas Burgerson (@tferguson9) May 15, 2024
I had to go back to my “Rankings Explained” piece from March for this one. To be clear, it wasn’t to remind myself of who I had more highly ranked, but rather to quantitate the discrepancy in value between Andrews and Bills sophomore Dalton Kincaid. Upon refreshing my memory, I had the former as my dynasty TE2 and 32nd-ranked player overall, and the latter as my TE4 and 55th player overall.
Interestingly, this had actually put me slightly above consensus on Kincaid, who is viewed as the TE7 per the most current ADP. This was borne out in my commentary where I stated “I’m much higher on Kincaid, who showed some LaPorta-esque flashes in 2023. I’m a little surprised he’s not more highly regarded.” But given my rankings discrepancy between the two players, I’d have to go with the veteran.
To the subtleties of the question, at the tight end position I’m looking for game changers. I really do believe Kincaid has the potential to join the upper echelon of “ceiling” players such as Andrews, Kelce, Kittle and LaPorta. But it wasn’t shown in practice in his rookie season – the “flashes” alluded to above are great, but this is an impossible position to find high-level consistency. I understand wanting to buy in closer to the ground floor in the hopes a player will eventually blossom, but if I’m contending I want the guarantee.
Smart money also says there will be more guys coming along in the pipeline – we don’t have to look any further than Brock Bowers this season. Continuing, the 2023 PPR TE1 hierarchy included two rookies, one second-year player, and younger players such as Cole Kmet and Jake Ferguson. In short, it’s the position of churn and burn.
Stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference
This again highlights that you can find replacement-level production, as in terms of points per game there was only a difference of 2.6 PPG between the TE5 (David Njoku) and the TE10 (Dalton Schultz). Having these types of guys rostered will likely ensure you’re not losing any weeks, but also that the position isn’t winning anything for you. I’m not saying this is Kincaid’s fate, but here again Andrews is the bird in hand.
As for McBride, I have him just behind Kincaid as my TE5, which means I’m lower on him than consensus. I don’t inherently think this means I dislike him, but I suppose the data is the data. Notably he showed a higher ceiling than Kincaid, but I question whether he can continue corralling 76.4% of his targets – with Harrison’s arrival it’s also fair to wonder if his target share will take a hit. So I suppose I’m still in something of a “wait and see” mode with him. As such it likely wouldn’t surprise you that in a head-to-head matchup, here again, I’m rolling with Andrews.
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