Dynasty Fantasy Football Trading Post: Drake London
Dynasty value in the off-season is a funny thing. Since there are no tangible measurements we can attach to a player at this moment, the assigned value we give to these players is largely hypothetical. Of course Justin Jefferson is worth more than Jonathan Mingo – that isn’t hypothetical – but when you get more granular into positions and tiers there starts to be a lot of variation in values. Also, we give players a value boost when it looks like their situation will improve. For example, Garrett Wilson is going to get Aaron Rodgers back and that is a clear upgrade at quarterback. What I always find a little funny is that once videos start rolling in of Rodgers throwing the ball to Wilson, we will increase Wilson’s value again.
This double dipping of value happens all the time through all different facets of players and situations. When putting rookie rankings together we think things such as: “This running back is fast so he is valuable”, and adjust our rankings to suit this thought. Then the combine happens and that running back runs a fast 40-yard dash time and for some reason, we boost his value again.
I have such a hard time reconciling this in my brain. We know these things are true and we operate as if they are at that value level already but then we just double down once it is fact. From the second Arthur Smith was fired as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons the main fantasy players on the team went up in value. No one was worried about Bijan Robinson’s workload anymore, no more Jonnu Smith miraculously getting more playing time than Kyle Pitts, and finally, Drake London has the chance he needs to be in a good offense with an upgrade at quarterback. Of the three of those players, this article is going to explore some trades with the player who has been subject to value double-dipping at its strongest.
Drake London, WR ATL
I had been keen on adding London to my dynasty teams ever since the end of his rookie year. His value was sinking a bit because of the lackluster offense and the absolute lack of a worthwhile quarterback but the last few games of the season, once Desmond Ridder became the starter, were showing a bright side for London. His targets were increasing, his market share was increasing, and he even had some very usable fantasy production. This of course was all smashed to pieces by Arthur Smith and the abysmal offense that was placed on the field. But 2024 is a brand new year with a brand new coach, brand new offense, and “brand new” quarterback (Kirk Cousins isn’t exactly “new” but he is new to the Falcons!)
Especially now that we are in peak rookie draft season, there have been a lot of offers going around that involve our subject wide receiver and in most of them he seems to be valued more than I had thought he should be and I think we are in this situation where we kept bumping up his value with all the news that came in even though we all knew these would happen. Arthur Smith fired: value bump. New coach hired: value bump. Kirk Cousins signed: value bump. Again, this was all even though the moment the 2023 season ended his value increased because we all knew it was the end of that era in Atlanta.
Seeing these trades is going to be very interesting. I haven’t looked through the DLF Trade Finder yet because I wanted to be able to gauge my opinion on his value in real-time as I write this article. And of course, we will be putting these trades through the DLF Trade Analyzer to see how the wizards over at DLF feel about them as well.
12 team, Superflex, PPR, TE premium, start 10
First of all, kudos on the Star Wars reference name, I love it!
I have gone on record many times over many platforms that I am not a big proponent of trading for running backs in the off-season. The position is very volatile and injury concerns are elevated. But if you are going to trade for a running back in May, it might as well be a stud like Jahmyr Gibbs. While I do like some of the rookies you are finding in the late second in superflex rookie draft, that pick doesn’t really weigh in much on this trade for me. This really feels like London for Gibbs and a little throw-in just to make the deal happen.
Taking that into mind, this is very easily Gibbs for me. I am almost ruling out the “Drake London can be a bust” train of thought. I think we have seen enough from him in the NFL that he will be a very solid fantasy contributor. But we have also seen what Gibbs can do on that Lions offense. London would need to finish as a top-ten wide receiver for this to start feeling even to me. While that is not out of the realm of possibilities, I just don’t feel like it is very likely.
12 team, 1QB, PPR, start 9
When I first scrolled past this trade I thought it was a superflex league and I was already on the London side. This being a one-quarterback league just hammers that decision further home. Pacheco is a fine running back, a very solid RB2. The 1.09 in 1QB drafts isn’t a nothing pick, you are still getting a pretty talented player at that spot but London is only 22 and on what should be a very good offense. This seems like extreme fear of the Falcons or extreme rookie fever. Either way, I am not a fan of that side.
12 team, superflex, PPR, TE premium, start 10
There are a few things to unpack in this deal. The first is that Drake London is worth more than Brock Purdy on his own. Honestly, I am not the biggest Purdy fan. I would not be surprised if last season ends up being his most productive season for real football or for fantasy. Even having said that, in a 12-team superflex league, I firmly believe that Purdy should be worth more than our wide receiver.
Even if we lower our expectations for both, a high-to-mid QB2 is worth more than a high-to-mid WR2. Next we see that not only did this team have to add to London to get up to Purdy but a first-round pick was needed to bridge the gap. That feels a little strong for me. Another funny thing about dynasty value, in a 12-team league the 1.11 and the 2.01 are literally just two picks apart but the value difference between the two is astronomical. Seeing that one in the front of the draft pick boosts so much hope and expectations out of us that they are worth so much more even though they can be single-digit picks apart. I point this out because even if this was an early second-round pick I would start to feel better about it, completely acknowledging the fact that a four-pick gap shouldn’t change the value all that much. But I can’t help it, that is how our brains are trained and it is still how I feel on this trade. It should not take a first to bridge the gap. Of course all of this could be one of the managers strongly overvaluing Purdy and then most of this argument is just with myself.
Based on the dealings – or attempted dealings – I have seen in my leagues, I would have expected to see more overvaluing of Drake London in the Trade Finder but it has turned out to be a very mixed bag of values. Maybe this means I should try throwing some trades around again after the rookie draft madness has subsided.
Taking a step back and thinking about dynasty value as a whole, just make sure that you have the big picture in mind and you aren’t double counting the upgrades or downgrades once they become a reality. Dynasty value is a very hard concept to nail down but it gets so much harder when we overthink every small move that happens not only to our players but the environments around them.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trading Post: Kyler Murray - May 16, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trading Post: Drake London - May 9, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Trading Post: Late First Round Picks - April 18, 2024
