DLF Team Dynasty Predictions for 2024 NFL Draft: Quarterbacks
Dynasty League Football is the premier source for dynasty fantasy football analysis, and its contributors are some of the top minds in the industry. So, we needed to figure out how the team at DLF feels about the 2024 class of rookies! We surveyed the team, and we’ll analyze the results in a four-part series, kicking off with the quarterbacks here!
Quarterbacks are once again dominating the top of NFL Draft Big Boards and mock drafts in 2024. It’s extremely likely that three quarterbacks will go with the first three picks, and a fourth could go at number four if there is a trade. Lately, it seems analysts have been able to find something wrong with every one of these quarterbacks, but that’s because we’ve been spending the past three months talking about how great they are! Let’s see what the DLF team has to say about this draft class!
We asked DLF contributors to rank the top four quarterbacks in order of when they’ll be drafted in the NFL Draft and when they should be drafted in dynasty rookie drafts. Caleb Williams was nearly the consensus number one for both questions, with only one contributor voting Caleb Williams as their number two dynasty QB behind Jayden Daniels. There is so much off-the-field noise around Caleb Williams and the number one pick. Clearly, none of that matters in our eyes, and apparently the Bears’ eyes. They’ve committed to taking a quarterback with the number one overall pick and Caleb Williams only made a Top 30 visit with the Bears. He will very likely be the number one pick, as the DLF contributors have predicted. And, despite all of the noise, he is the best dynasty quarterback in this draft.
While Williams is the consensus number one for both questions, J.J. McCarthy is by himself in fourth. 79% of survey responses picked McCarthy to be the fourth quarterback drafted and the fourth quarterback in their rankings. Meanwhile, the survey responders are nearly split on Jayden Daniels vs. Drake Maye. Maye edges out Daniels in the question of who will be drafted first in the NFL Draft, while Daniels is clearly ahead of Maye in the dynasty rankings of these quarterbacks.
The difference in these rankings probably has to do with Jayden Daniels’s rushing upside. Drake Maye is plenty athletic, and an underrated runner, but Daniels is absolutely the best running quarterback in this draft. He isn’t the fastest player, but he did run for 1,134 yards on 135 attempts last season. Justin Taylor explained it well, saying, “Williams is top dog, then the rushing upside of Daniels moves him up in fantasy drafts.”
After the top four quarterbacks, the biggest question comes down to Bo Nix or Michael Penix, Jr. Nix and Penix are both older prospects who have seemingly played college football for nearly a decade. The results are basically split, with Penix taking 52.6% of the vote. “Penix throws are effortless with strong velocity and accuracy, he is potentially the best pure passer in the class,” Connor LePlante explained when he picked him over Nix.
The DLF Rankers disagree slightly with the contributors surveyed here. The rankers have Nix edging out Penix as the QB five and six respectively. I personally agree with the survey results, preferring Penix. He’s got a really nice arm and deceptive athleticism. If it wasn’t for the myriad of injuries suffered in his college career, I believe he would’ve been a more highly touted prospect.
Jayden Daniels comes in as the most overrated quarterback by this survey of DLF contributors. Steve Gill broke down his selection of Daniels, saying that “significant downsides and risks to Daniels profile are being overlooked for sake of his upside. His potential rushing production offers a great ceiling indeed, however, he won’t be able to realize that potential in the rushing or passing games if he can’t lock down a starting job in the NFL.”
Daniels is widely considered a top-three quarterback in this class and, coming off of his Heisman Trophy campaign, could have the most upside of anyone in this class. But, there are significant concerns that could limit his production in the NFL, starting with his size. At just 210 pounds, and maybe even smaller than that at his playing weight, he could be susceptible to injuries more than his peers at the top of the draft board. He also struggled mightily at Arizona State before transferring to LSU, where he had two first round picks at wide receiver to throw the ball to.
For most overrated quarterbacks, Nix received the next highest amount of votes, followed by Maye, McCarthy, Penix, and Joe Milton, in that order.
Despite being the consensus number one quarterback in this class, DLF Contributors voted Caleb Williams as the most underrated quarterback in the class, tied with Michael Pratt and Drake Maye. “People are talking themselves out of Williams at 1.01, both in the NFL Draft and in superflex rookie drafts,” says John Hogue. “If he isn’t unanimously the top prospect in the class, he’s severely undervalued.”
Michael Pratt is an interesting name that hasn’t been brought up yet in this article. He’s the eighth-ranked quarterback in the DLF Rookie Rankings, and that is because only one of the rankers included him in their rankings. “I really like his game,” Andrew Francesconi said when he chose Pratt as his most underrated QB in the class. “He was excellent in 2022 and started 2023 off incredibly well before injuries limited him down the stretch.” I recently wrote a rookie profile on Pratt that will be published on DLF in the next week and I was not very impressed with the tape. I was hoping to like him more after seeing him at the Senior Bowl, but his tape didn’t live up to the hype for me.
My selection was Jordan Travis, who could be the best fantasy quarterback that no one is talking about in this draft. A leg injury severely limited him in 2023, and could be impacting his draft stock now, but he was an electric player when he was on the field. “ It’s also worth noting that most seem unimpressed with Keon Coleman or Johnny Wilson as NFL WRs,” Connor LaPlante explains. “Travis had success despite this.” I chose Travis because, while he’s destined for a backup role just like Pratt is, I believe that when he gets a chance to start managers will be diving to the waiver wire to pick Travis up. I’m not so sure Pratt’s skillset will be as exciting in a one-off situation.
To get an idea of the ceiling of each of these players, the DLF Contributors answered what they thought each QB’s best fantasy football finish would be. It’s important to know, especially for superflex drafters, where these quarterbacks can top out at. It’s clear that nearly everyone expects Caleb Williams to be a top five fantasy football quarterback at some point in his career. Meanwhile, 26% of contributors expect Daniels to get there at some point in his career and 21% say Maye will. “I wouldn’t necessarily expect top 5 play from Maye or Williams year in and year out,” explained Steve Gill. “But placed in the best circumstances, those marks are certainly attainable a handful of times.”
Interestingly, under 16% of voters believe J.J. McCarthy will even have a top 10 finish in his career. Most say that he will top out as a top 15 quarterback. He is certainly a polarizing quarterback in NFL circles, and in dynasty fantasy football circles as well. There are many out there who think he shouldn’t be a first-round pick, while others say he is the best quarterback in this draft. The DLF contributors tend to lean more towards the former rather than the latter.
All in all, the 2024 rookie quarterbacks seemed destined to be one of the top classes of signal callers in recent memory. 79% of DLF Contributors said that this is a top three class in the past 10 years, 10.5% of them said it is the best. 2020 tends to be considered the best of the past decade, but this one appears to be right up there. “This class is fantastic,” says Rob Willette. “Zero qualms with placing it near the top.”
John Di Bari finds himself a bit lower than consensus with this crop of quarterbacks, saying it is a top four or five class in the past 10 drafts. “Most drafts only produce 2 fantasy-viable options and I’m starting to get the feeling this class is very bust-heavy,” he says. “I don’t think Caleb Williams is anything special at the top and the rest of this group follows suit.” If history is any indication, he is absolutely right. The hit rate for first-round quarterbacks tends to be about 50-50. Therefore, if four to six quarterbacks go in the first round, it’s reasonable to believe that two to three of them will be busts. Just look back at the 2021 draft. It is only three seasons later and already four of the five quarterbacks selected in the first round are not on the team that drafted them.
It’s clear that expectations for this quarterback class are extremely high with Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy being the most sought-after assets. You can expect all of them to go in the first round of superflex rookie drafts, and hopefully a few of them become fantasy football superstars for the next decade plus. rest of this class.”
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