Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Xavier Worthy, WR Texas
Speed was the storyline of the 2023 NFL season. All over the league, teams were taking advantage of the speed they had on their teams to outrun the opposing defenses.
The Miami Dolphins were the shining example of that strategy. With the addition of De’Von Achane along with Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins were the fastest team in the league and opposing defenses were struggling to keep up.
If you’re looking for speed in this rookie class, the conversation starts with Texas WR Xavier Worthy. His play speed is incredible, and he put the cherry on top of that analysis by running the fastest 40-yard dash in NFL Combine history. But, we’ve seen it over and over again in the NFL Draft process: a player runs the lights out in Indy, gets overdrafted, and goes on to be a bust in the NFL. Is Worthy worth more than just his speed?
The Stats
Images courtesy of Sports Reference.
Worthy had a long and winding road to Austin, Texas. He’s been the fastest player on the field since he started playing football in Edison, California. He attended Central East High School in Fresno and immediately made the varsity team as a 140-pound freshman. He dealt with a strained hip flexor as a sophomore, so he didn’t break out in high school until his junior year, where he led the team to a 15-0 record and a 1-AA state championship. The pandemic canceled his senior season and kicked off a complicated recruiting journey for Worthy.
A four-star recruit and the #13 receiver in the country, he received plenty of interest from high-end football programs around the country. He chose to play with JJ McCarthy at Michigan, but after moving to Ann Arbor issues popped up for him with Michigan’s athletic requirements. Michigan allowed him out of his commitment and he committed to Texas without a visit. He was attracted to Austin by head coach Steve Sarkisian. Worthy even said he “liked the way he utilized DeVonta Smith” as an offensive coordinator at Alabama.
He broke out immediately as an 18-year-old freshman at Texas, catching 62 balls for 981 yards and 12 touchdowns. He led the team in receiving and earned several accolades for his accomplishment, including Freshman All-American, First Team All-Big 12 and Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year. He broke several Texas Freshman school records, including receiving yards and touchdowns. He established himself as a hero of Texas football in the 2021 Red River Showdown, catching nine passes for 261 yards and two touchdowns, though it wasn’t enough to overcome the Sooners in a 55-48 loss (this was the game Caleb Williams took over for Spencer Rattler as Oklahoma’s QB). His best game of the season was a 14-152-3 receiving performance against Kansas, another loss in a very disappointing Texas season.
Worthy took a bit of a step back in his sophomore season, getting acquainted with new quarterback Quinn Ewars in Austin. He still led the team in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns (60-760-9). This was the first season he made a significant impact in the punt return game, going for 146 yards on 15 returns. The Longhorns finished the season off with a loss to Washington in the Alamo Bowl, a game that saw Worthy catch seven balls for 84 yards.
Worthy had his most productive season in 2023, catching 75 balls for 1,014 yards. Despite the career highs in those categories, he caught a career-low five touchdowns. The arrival of Adonai Mitchell in Austin played a role in that as he led the team with 11 touchdowns, but Worthy still paced the team in receptions and receiving yards. In the national semifinal against Washington, Worthy had one of his least productive games of the season, catching two balls for 45 yards.
After the season, he declared for the NFL Draft. He left Austin with the third most receiving touchdowns (26) and fourth most receiving yards (2,755) in school history.
The Film
For more film, check out Worthy’s DLF Profile.
Worthy caught five balls for 75 yards and a touchdown in that game last year against Alabama, an upset win for the Longhorns in Tuscaloosa. He had a really good game against a tough Crimson Tide defense and was matched up mostly with Kool-Aid McKinstry, likely a first-round pick this year. The touchdown was an absolutely beautiful ball thrown by Quinn Ewars, but a good display of Worthy’s deep-ball ability. Obviously, his speed is a factor and weapon the Longhorns utilized often. But, you also saw a really bad drop by Worthy earlier in the game that would’ve been an easy touchdown. It was a great route run by the speedster, but he just couldn’t finish the play.
On film, we see a receiver who is historically fast, and doesn’t have all of the same downfalls that other speed-first receivers have. He runs really solid routes and can stop-and-go with ease. Defenders will have a very difficult time keeping up with him if they lose even half a step.
He played all over the field, lining up out wide nearly 60% of the time. That skillset is important for someone his size, because typically those players can only play in the slot. With that being said, he’ll likely only be a slot receiver at the NFL level.
If he gets the ball in space, that’s when he does his most damage. He has great vision as a ball carrier, and a returner, to find openings for extra yards. He does well working through hits, but obviously at his size, he isn’t going to break many tackles.
He really struggles to win at the catch point if there is any resistance from defenders. He doesn’t have strong hands, and it doesn’t take much to knock the ball out. He also suffers from some focus drops, like the drop we saw in that previous video at the goal line. He only caught five of his 21 contested targets last season.
Receivers drafted in Round 1 with a sub 2.5 career yards per route run. Not a death sentence but some of the biggest draft busts do find their way onto this list. A lot of receivers on watch for this list in the upcoming class:
Keon Coleman
Adonai Mitchell
Xavier Worthy pic.twitter.com/xl6QZtWen6— Kyle Dvorchak (@kyletweetshere) April 18, 2024
There are some analytical red flags that come up for Worthy as well. Yards per route run at the college level tends to be a very predictive stat for wide receiver success at the NFL. Typically, NFL-level receivers will demand the ball when they’re running routes. It isn’t an end-all-be-all stat, but it is troubling to see.
He also got worse year-over-year as a college athlete, which we don’t typically see. His Pro Football Focus Grade started at 79.2 his freshman year, dropping to 69.8 his sophomore season and 68.9 in 2023. He had more 100-yard receiving games in his freshman year than he had in his final two years combined. Finally, his largest red flag has to be his size, but we’ll get into that more in his measurables below.
The Measurables
Image courtesy of NFL.com.
Xavier Worthy is a WR prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored a 9.41 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 189 out of 3188 WR from 1987 to 2024.
Pro day pending.https://t.co/wbx8DkbQP3 pic.twitter.com/150qeagCP7
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 27, 2024
Now, onto that massive red flag for Worthy, his size. He measured in at the Combine at 5’11” and 165 pounds. He’s in the first percentile of both weight and BMI. The NFL is certainly starting to trend smaller at wide receiver. We saw Tank Dell have an outstanding season last year at 5’8” and 165 pounds. Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers were both undersized despite being first-round picks. But, we still haven’t seen many receivers at Worthy’s size have continued success in the NFL.
DeVonta Smith has been the biggest success story for a smaller receiver, and he’s on an island for 1,000-yard seasons. While Smith’s career can be looked at as a ceiling for Worthy, he doesn’t have nearly as much talent as Smith has.
Onto his Combine testing, the headline of Worthy’s draft profile. He ran a 4.21 40-yard dash, the fastest to ever be recorded at the NFL Combine. That’s outstanding to see, but it’s also easy to look at that as a negative. The list of the fastest 40-yard dash wide receivers is littered with busts, highlighted by John Ross, who was the record holder prior to Worthy. That’s just a narrative though, there’s no reason a player who runs that fast can’t be successful as an NFL receiver.
His jumps were also considered elite, adding up to an elite athletic profile for Worthy. He just needs to overcome his diminutive size
The Value
Image courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database.
Speed can often be overdrafted in the NFL Draft, and we saw a major bump in value for Worthy after he ran his 4.21 40-yard dash. He’s looked at as a fringe first-round pick, who could fall down into day two. There are several teams at the back of the draft who could target a player like him, most notably the Kansas City Chiefs, who Mock Draft Database has as his consensus landing spot.
Data from DLF One Quarterback ADP.
He’s currently the 34th wide receiver selected in DLF Startup Dynasty drafts, 60th overall. He’s being valued just after Mike Evans and Brian Thomas, and just before Cooper Kupp and Christian Watson. He’s the fifth rookie wide receiver being drafted in those startup drafts. His rookie draft ADP is sixth overall, the fifth wide receiver drafted. The DLF Rookie Rankings also rank him as the sixth overall rookie and the fifth wide receiver.
Dynasty Outlook
Xavier Worthy is a speed demon and a really good route runner. With a skillset like that, he’s bound to be a top-40 pick in the NFL Draft. But, I am concerned that if he does have success in the NFL, he’ll be much more valuable as an NFL player than he is in fantasy. He will either need to be schemed up by an outstanding offensive play-caller, or he’ll be limited to go routes only.
Landing spot will be important for a player like him. If he goes to someone from the Kyle Shanahan tree, for example, they could do a great job scheming him open or getting the ball into his hands with space. If he goes to a less creative playcaller, he may just turn into a less-skilled DeSean Jackson.
The fact is, it’s more likely he plays at his floor than he plays at his ceiling in the NFL. I won’t be drafting him in rookie drafts at his ADP, or in startup drafts where he is going. There are wide receivers being selected after Worthy that I’m more certain will succeed as an NFL wide receiver.
Speed was the storyline of the 2023 NFL season. All over the league, teams were taking advantage of the speed they had on their teams to outrun the opposing defenses.
The Miami Dolphins were the shining example of that strategy. With the addition of De’Von Achane along with Raheem Mostert, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, the Dolphins were the fastest team in the league and opposing defenses were struggling to keep up.
If you’re looking for speed in this rookie class, the conversation starts with Texas WR Xavier Worthy. His play speed is incredible, and he put the cherry on top of that analysis by running the fastest 40-yard dash in NFL Combine history. But, we’ve seen it over and over again in the NFL Draft process: a player runs the lights out in Indy, gets overdrafted, and goes on to be a bust in the NFL. Is Worthy worth more than just his speed?
The Stats
Images courtesy of Sports Reference.
Worthy had a long and winding road to Austin, Texas. He’s been the fastest player on the field since he started playing football in Edison, California. He attended Central East High School in Fresno and immediately made the varsity team as a 140-pound freshman. He dealt with a strained hip flexor as a sophomore, so he didn’t break out in high school until his junior year, where he led the team to a 15-0 record and a 1-AA state championship. The pandemic canceled his senior season and kicked off a complicated recruiting journey for Worthy.
A four-star recruit and the #13 receiver in the country, he received plenty of interest from high-end football programs around the country. He chose to play with JJ McCarthy at Michigan, but after moving to Ann Arbor issues popped up for him with Michigan’s athletic requirements. Michigan allowed him out of his commitment and he committed to Texas without a visit. He was attracted to Austin by head coach Steve Sarkisian. Worthy even said he “liked the way he utilized DeVonta Smith” as an offensive coordinator at Alabama.
He broke out immediately as an 18-year-old freshman at Texas, catching 62 balls for 981 yards and 12 touchdowns. He led the team in receiving and earned several accolades for his accomplishment, including Freshman All-American, First Team All-Big 12 and Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year. He broke several Texas Freshman school records, including receiving yards and touchdowns. He established himself as a hero of Texas football in the 2021 Red River Showdown, catching nine passes for 261 yards and two touchdowns, though it wasn’t enough to overcome the Sooners in a 55-48 loss (this was the game Caleb Williams took over for Spencer Rattler as Oklahoma’s QB). His best game of the season was a 14-152-3 receiving performance against Kansas, another loss in a very disappointing Texas season.
Worthy took a bit of a step back in his sophomore season, getting acquainted with new quarterback Quinn Ewars in Austin. He still led the team in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns (60-760-9). This was the first season he made a significant impact in the punt return game, going for 146 yards on 15 returns. The Longhorns finished the season off with a loss to Washington in the Alamo Bowl, a game that saw Worthy catch seven balls for 84 yards.
Worthy had his most productive season in 2023, catching 75 balls for 1,014 yards. Despite the career highs in those categories, he caught a career-low five touchdowns. The arrival of Adonai Mitchell in Austin played a role in that as he led the team with 11 touchdowns, but Worthy still paced the team in receptions and receiving yards. In the national semifinal against Washington, Worthy had one of his least productive games of the season, catching two balls for 45 yards.
After the season, he declared for the NFL Draft. He left Austin with the third most receiving touchdowns (26) and fourth most receiving yards (2,755) in school history.
The Film
For more film, check out Worthy’s DLF Profile.
Worthy caught five balls for 75 yards and a touchdown in that game last year against Alabama, an upset win for the Longhorns in Tuscaloosa. He had a really good game against a tough Crimson Tide defense and was matched up mostly with Kool-Aid McKinstry, likely a first-round pick this year. The touchdown was an absolutely beautiful ball thrown by Quinn Ewars, but a good display of Worthy’s deep-ball ability. Obviously, his speed is a factor and weapon the Longhorns utilized often. But, you also saw a really bad drop by Worthy earlier in the game that would’ve been an easy touchdown. It was a great route run by the speedster, but he just couldn’t finish the play.
On film, we see a receiver who is historically fast, and doesn’t have all of the same downfalls that other speed-first receivers have. He runs really solid routes and can stop-and-go with ease. Defenders will have a very difficult time keeping up with him if they lose even half a step.
He played all over the field, lining up out wide nearly 60% of the time. That skillset is important for someone his size, because typically those players can only play in the slot. With that being said, he’ll likely only be a slot receiver at the NFL level.
If he gets the ball in space, that’s when he does his most damage. He has great vision as a ball carrier, and a returner, to find openings for extra yards. He does well working through hits, but obviously at his size, he isn’t going to break many tackles.
He really struggles to win at the catch point if there is any resistance from defenders. He doesn’t have strong hands, and it doesn’t take much to knock the ball out. He also suffers from some focus drops, like the drop we saw in that previous video at the goal line. He only caught five of his 21 contested targets last season.
Receivers drafted in Round 1 with a sub 2.5 career yards per route run. Not a death sentence but some of the biggest draft busts do find their way onto this list. A lot of receivers on watch for this list in the upcoming class:
Keon Coleman
Adonai Mitchell
Xavier Worthy pic.twitter.com/xl6QZtWen6— Kyle Dvorchak (@kyletweetshere) April 18, 2024
There are some analytical red flags that come up for Worthy as well. Yards per route run at the college level tends to be a very predictive stat for wide receiver success at the NFL. Typically, NFL-level receivers will demand the ball when they’re running routes. It isn’t an end-all-be-all stat, but it is troubling to see.
He also got worse year-over-year as a college athlete, which we don’t typically see. His Pro Football Focus Grade started at 79.2 his freshman year, dropping to 69.8 his sophomore season and 68.9 in 2023. He had more 100-yard receiving games in his freshman year than he had in his final two years combined. Finally, his largest red flag has to be his size, but we’ll get into that more in his measurables below.
The Measurables
Image courtesy of NFL.com.
Xavier Worthy is a WR prospect in the 2024 draft class. He scored a 9.41 #RAS out of a possible 10.00. This ranked 189 out of 3188 WR from 1987 to 2024.
Pro day pending.https://t.co/wbx8DkbQP3 pic.twitter.com/150qeagCP7
— Kent Lee Platte (@MathBomb) March 27, 2024
Now, onto that massive red flag for Worthy, his size. He measured in at the Combine at 5’11” and 165 pounds. He’s in the first percentile of both weight and BMI. The NFL is certainly starting to trend smaller at wide receiver. We saw Tank Dell have an outstanding season last year at 5’8” and 165 pounds. Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers were both undersized despite being first-round picks. But, we still haven’t seen many receivers at Worthy’s size have continued success in the NFL.
DeVonta Smith has been the biggest success story for a smaller receiver, and he’s on an island for 1,000-yard seasons. While Smith’s career can be looked at as a ceiling for Worthy, he doesn’t have nearly as much talent as Smith has.
Onto his Combine testing, the headline of Worthy’s draft profile. He ran a 4.21 40-yard dash, the fastest to ever be recorded at the NFL Combine. That’s outstanding to see, but it’s also easy to look at that as a negative. The list of the fastest 40-yard dash wide receivers is littered with busts, highlighted by John Ross, who was the record holder prior to Worthy. That’s just a narrative though, there’s no reason a player who runs that fast can’t be successful as an NFL receiver.
His jumps were also considered elite, adding up to an elite athletic profile for Worthy. He just needs to overcome his diminutive size
The Value
Image courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database.
Speed can often be overdrafted in the NFL Draft, and we saw a major bump in value for Worthy after he ran his 4.21 40-yard dash. He’s looked at as a fringe first-round pick, who could fall down into day two. There are several teams at the back of the draft who could target a player like him, most notably the Kansas City Chiefs, who Mock Draft Database has as his consensus landing spot.
Data from DLF One Quarterback ADP.
He’s currently the 34th wide receiver selected in DLF Startup Dynasty drafts, 60th overall. He’s being valued just after Mike Evans and Brian Thomas, and just before Cooper Kupp and Christian Watson. He’s the fifth rookie wide receiver being drafted in those startup drafts. His rookie draft ADP is sixth overall, the fifth wide receiver drafted. The DLF Rookie Rankings also rank him as the sixth overall rookie and the fifth wide receiver.
Dynasty Outlook
Xavier Worthy is a speed demon and a really good route runner. With a skillset like that, he’s bound to be a top-40 pick in the NFL Draft. But, I am concerned that if he does have success in the NFL, he’ll be much more valuable as an NFL player than he is in fantasy. He will either need to be schemed up by an outstanding offensive play-caller, or he’ll be limited to go routes only.
Landing spot will be important for a player like him. If he goes to someone from the Kyle Shanahan tree, for example, they could do a great job scheming him open or getting the ball into his hands with space. If he goes to a less creative playcaller, he may just turn into a less-skilled DeSean Jackson.
The fact is, it’s more likely he plays at his floor than he plays at his ceiling in the NFL. I won’t be drafting him in rookie drafts at his ADP, or in startup drafts where he is going. There are wide receivers being selected after Worthy that I’m more certain will succeed as an NFL wide receiver.
