Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Saquon Barkley vs Jahmyr Gibbs
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
No fancy preamble from me today, as your eyes are already undoubtedly swimming trying to stay on top of all the free agency happenings! So as they say in roughly 94.7% of corporate meetings that end early, “I’m going to give you two minutes of your day back.”
Let’s get to it!
From Discord…
Feeling the Love
Which side do you prefer in a 10-team, half-PPR, superflex league for a contending team – Jordan Love, or Russell Wilson and pick 1.04?
In a year where the Detroit Lions almost made the Super Bowl, one could still argue that Jordan Love’s near-immediate ascension in the QB1 ranks was the most surprising outcome of the season. Sitting behind future Hall of Famer signal caller Aaron Rodgers for the first three years of his career, Love did little more than emanate naphthalene, with an aggregate 50 passing attempts largely in mop-up duty. Despite this, and on a team featuring little in the way of proven pass-catching talent, the former first-round pick concluded the year with the second-most passing scores and seventh-most passing yards on the way to a finish as the fantasy QB5.
Not surprisingly, Love’s dynasty fortunes have taken a turn for the better, as evidenced by his ADP jump (note: 1QB setting).
In superflex settings, Love also finds himself in rarified air as the QB11 and 16th player overall.
So as to not bury the lede any further, Love has gone from a dynasty afterthought to the top piece in deals such as these.
On the other side of the fence sits Russell Wilson, who is now moving on to his third team in four seasons following his uninspiring tenure in Denver, which was less “let Russ cook” and more “is Russ cooked?” In 2023 Wilson turned in a season that, on the surface, seemed pretty solid with 26 passing scores to only eight interceptions. And while another 341 yards and three touchdowns on the ground were nice, it was obvious that head coach Sean Payton was doing everything in his power to hide his quarterback. Despite the Broncos finishing the year with a losing record and the eight-worst point differential in the league, Wilson only attempted an anemic 447 passes across 15 games, likely because he averaged under 7.0 YPA and took a massive 45 sacks.
Incredibly, this has the potential to get worse! Following his release, Wilson signed with the Pittsburgh Steelers – while their passing game talent is better than Denver’s with Diontae Johnson, George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth, they actually threw the ball less than the Broncos last year. To double down on this misery, they hired fantasy pariah Arthur Smith as their offensive coordinator, fueling the belief the Steelers will remain a run-first team.
Rational minds may differ, but Wilson isn’t a guy I’m targeting in trades. While I’d be happy to be wrong, I believe last year’s QB14 finish will go down as the high-water mark for the remainder of his NFL tenure. Now 35 years old, Wilson is clearly a player on the back nine of his career, and even in superflex league formats is fast approaching roster clogger status, as it seems unlikely folks would be comfortable with him as their QB2 excepting bye weeks. Given this, his inclusion in the deal doesn’t move the needle for me.
As such, we’re essentially hoping that Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels can become what Love already is, or that Marvin Harrison Jr is the next Justin Jefferson, as that is who pick 1.04 is likely to yield. We’d also be banking on a plateau for the young cheesehead, which seems unlikely as he gains experience and his young pass catchers continue to grow. While the deal still isn’t unreasonable given the top-heavy nature of superflex rookie drafts this year, it would more than likely set a contending team back in 2024 unless one of the rookie quarterbacks pulls a CJ Stroud. So while the DLF Trade Analyzer shows a virtual dead heat, I’m loving the Love side of the deal.
Steer Clear of Jahmyr?
In a 12-team, PPR, superflex/tight end-premium league, which side do you prefer for a rebuilding team – Saquon Barkley and pick 1.04, or Jahmyr Gibbs and pick 1.12?
Why not pick up where we just left off, and see what the DLF Trade Analyzer has to say here:
Well that’s not terribly helpful, is it? At the very least, what we see is the best type of trade – one that is balanced and ostensibly helps both teams. With that said, it’s something of a mishmash.
If I’m firmly rebuilding, I’m definitely interested in pick 1.04 – but pairing it with a 27-year-old running back with a checkered injury history, despite him landing in a plum situation with the Philadelphia Eagles, is a bit odd. To be clear, there does not exist some firm line of delineation effectively stating “thou shalt not trade for players over XX years of age” when your team isn’t contending. On the contrary – depending on the timing, and with a little bit of luck, one could argue every player can present a good opportunity to buy.
Take Keenan Allen for example.
Sure, as far as the majority of dynasty pundits are concerned, he might as well have begun playing football in the Cretaceous Period. And yet, it didn’t stop him from ripping off 97 receptions for over 1,100 yards and seven scores in the first 11 games of his 2023 campaign. Even at 31 years of age, this led to an acute increase in value.
As shown above, and noting that his ADP decreased incrementally from October through December, if you bought low on Allen in the off-season, you likely had multiple months to cash out for a profit. Of course, the other side of that coin is the veteran was injured late in the year, and as the calendar rolled into 2024 he subsequently lost all that was gained. Still, noting again that you have to time it right and get a little lucky, every player represents an opportunity to buy.
And while I do think Barkley, if he stays healthy, should be in for a monster year, I’m not trading a guy like Gibbs to find out. Yes, pick 1.04 is a great asset for a rebuilding team, but so is the guy who, for a hot minute, was viewed as the overall RB1 by ADP (he now sits as the RB4, but is still a first-round pick in 1QB leagues and late second-round pick in superflex formats). A PPR RB1 as a rookie and on one of the hottest offenses in the league, Gibbs has a younger, faster Austin Ekeler kind of vibe to him right now. Even at the dynasty black hole running back position, Gibbs is a foundational asset.
Interestingly, while pick 1.04 is obviously a better asset, this deal would have been a bit more interesting if it was in the 1.05-1.07 range. Quarterbacks are king in superflex settings, but I don’t want to gloss over the tight end premium paradigm. Former Georgia Bulldog Brock Bowers is one of the most heralded prospects of the last several years, and as a likely future first-round pick would command attention in the early half of the first round in a setting that adds gravitas to the position. But, as noted in the first question answered above, the first four picks are likely set with the trio of quarterbacks plus Harrison – so pick 1.04 doesn’t really gain additional value.
There exists a scenario where Barkley puts forward a career year on an elite offense and begins to run neck and neck with Christian McCaffrey as the top ball carrier elder statesman. It’s truthfully not farfetched provided he maintains his health, and quarterback Jalen Hurts is gracious enough to cede a few tush push scores. In such a scenario, we could see their divergent ADPs intertwine anew.
But the alternative is already painfully laid out. When it goes bad, such as it did between December 2021 and February 2022, and again in September 2023 and February 2024, the value bottom falls out.
As always, the devil is in the details – but perhaps there’s still something here surrounding Barkley and pick 1.12. If Gibbs and pick 1.04 are removed, and a future swap is included instead, there might be something here. Though here again selling off a future first is a dicey proposition for a rebuilding team, if Barkley does what he’s capable of doing then it could be a mid-to-late first-round pick instead of an early one, and vice versa for the team selling Barkley. As with anything in life and fantasy football, there are no guarantees here, just hopes, dreams, and smartly placed wagers.
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