Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Bryce Young, Jonathan Taylor and a Pair of Rams
Welcome back to the DLF Mailbag, the preeminent mailbag in all the dynasty fantasy football land. As a reminder, there are multiple ways to pose your burning questions! I’ll be soliciting weekly feedback via X/Twitter (look for a new pinned tweet each Monday), and you can also reach out using our Discord channel, or the old-fashioned way (via our online webform).
“Please read my letter and promise me you’ll keep,
The secrets and the memories we cherish in the deep,
Please read the letter, I nailed it to your door,
It’s crazy how it all turned out we needed so much more.”
-Robert Plant and Allison Krauss (Please Read This Letter)
To paraphrase our erstwhile Zeppelin frontman, if you send it, I’ll read it and do my best to answer it! Unfortunately much like with a bad game from your starting receiver against Sauce Gardner, the volume was lacking this week. As such I’ve poked around DLF’s Forum and Discord for some topics for discussion.
Let’s get to it!
Is Young Dung?
Would you trade Nico Collins for Bryce Young and a 2025 2nd in a 2QB league?
I like these types of trades, because ultimately it involves two owners attempting to get ahead of the curve in one way or another. When it comes to Panthers quarterback Bryce Young, what more can you really say? He was an abject disaster as a rookie, failing to elevate an already bad Carolina offense while physically resembling a JV player in a varsity league. Meanwhile Texans receiver Nico Collins exploded in his third season, incidentally catching passes from the guy picked immediately behind Young in CJ Stroud. Still, there have been whispers that he may actually represent a “sell high” candidate, given that fellow pass catcher Tank Dell will be returning healthy in 2024.
Let’s first go to DLF’s trade analyzer.
While acknowledging I’m at risk for a sacking akin to the opening credits of Monty Python and the Holy Grail, I’m going to have to disagree with the above assessment from our analyzer. I understand the sentiment behind it – despite his calamitous season, Young was the first pick in the NFL Draft for a reason, as a former Heisman Trophy winner who compiled a career 8.8 YPA and sterling 80:12 touchdown to interception count. Buying him now could very well represent acquiring at his cheapest, particularly if the Panthers are able to get him some additional help in a pass-catching corps “led” by Cryptkeeper Adam Thielen. The hire of quarterback whisperer Dave Canales is certainly a step in the right direction.
But Collins was the PPR WR12 on the year despite missing two games, on the back of just under 1,300 yards and eight scores. He did this all on a mere 109 targets, and was the only PPR WR1 with fewer than 135 looks. He’s also tied to Stroud, who may already be the dynasty QB1, and should have a great NFL career ahead of him. Even if Dell commands a large slice of the pie, this offense will be good enough to support two great pass catchers, much like the 49ers, Dolphins, and Bengals. I’d be loathe to let go of a 24-year-old size/speed freak who is just now entering the beginning of his prime, and who is tied to an elite signal caller on a rising offense.
A 2025 second doesn’t really move the needle for me – if it was a first then maybe we’d be talking, but draft picks after the initial round have a 50% likelihood of hitting at best. So having to wait until 2025 for a dart throw isn’t enough of a sweetener.
If Young finds his bearings, I could see lamenting not taking this deal down the road. But Collins is a locked and loaded starter, and there’s no guarantee the Panther will ever be. I know how important quarterbacks are in a superflex setting, but I’m keeping the bird in hand.
Don’t Puka the Bear
Would you trade Puka Nacua for Kyren Williams?
I spilled some ink in this space a few weeks back about my belief in Rams running back Kyren Williams. He’s currently the RB5 per DLF’s ADP, and the 18th overall player selected on average. After finishing as the PPR RB7 despite missing five games, this place in the ADP hierarchy is deserved.
But that still pales in comparison to his rookie teammate Nacua, who is currently the tenth player overall.
What Williams did as a former late-round pick in his second season was impressive. What Nacua did in his rookie season as a late-round pick was mind-blowing, with nearly 1,500 receiving yards and a finish as the PPR WR4. I had noted above with Collins that some might apply a logic that it’s likelier to get worse, but not me – much like Happy Gilmore going for the green jacket, I think he’s only just begun.
Though their ADPs are close, we know that these early round differences are more consequential than 11 slots in the late rounds, and our trade analyzer shows exactly this.
Yes, this is an imperfect science, but I think that the suggested additions are reasonable. Nakua was a unicorn as a rookie, and to get rid of him now an owner should be getting a stud and another starter in return. So added to Williams should be a player like Isiah Pacheco or Christian Kirk, which would be my preferences of those listed above. That could be a trade that best approximates Nacua’s current market value.
Jonathan Taylor Commerce
Would you rather have Jonathan Taylor or pick 1.06 in a superflex draft?
The Colts runner had a mercurial season, starting with missing the first four games after being placed on the PUP list in what seemed more like a shot across the bow related to his contract status. To that point, Taylor was something of an off-season vocal leader for the argument that running backs, in fact, do matter. He publicly lobbied for a new contract, highlighting his robust early-career statistics and usage. Once he returned he ramped up his workload while getting to game speed, and started to resemble the former 2,000+ overall yard earner from 2021 before losing three more contests due to a thumb injury. Still, he capped his season with a 30-carry, 188-yard effort in a close loss to the Texans in week 18.
During this saga, Taylor got his bag and is now the third-highest salaried ball carrier in the league, and should be locked in with the Colts for the next three years. This will pair him with exciting but injury-riddled quarterback Anthony Richardson, who when healthy showed superstar traits both on the ground and through the air. With head coach Shane Steichen coaxing a top-15 offense with backup Gardner Minshew taking most the snaps at quarterback, it’s fair to reason there’s more meat on the bone here.
Continuing, Taylor’s weekly line when he played at least 50% of the stats stood at a solid 19.4-88-0.9, with another 13 receptions and a score. Though he’s not been the most prolific receiver during his time in the NFL, he secured 2.4 receptions per game prior to 2023 – coupled with a full off-season it’s fair to reason things should be even better in 2024.
On the other side of the ledger is pick 1.06 in a superflex format. It’s only January, so we know there’s plenty of time for things to change following the NFL Combine, but right now that seems likely to yield receiver Rome Odunze. Dispassionately, this is an important distinction to make, as this represents a tier break behind quarterbacks Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels, and receivers Marvin Harrison Jr and Malik Nabers.
This is an important distinction to me, as I’m not willing to trade a player with Taylor’s proven upside for anything other than a tier-one prospect in return. DLF’s Trade Analyzer agrees with this assertion.
To be clear, it’s a reasonable trade offer given the supreme value of draft picks this time of year. And playing devil’s advocate, it’s not as if Taylor fully proved he was all the way back from a somewhat disappointing 2022 campaign that also ended in injury. But this is still a player who’s averaging 5.0 YPC for his career with 44 total scores across 53 contests – he’s a bell cow ball carrier who does just enough in the passing game to threaten for overall yearly PPR RB1 numbers, just as he accomplished in 2021. I’d need just a bit more to move on from that.
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