Dynasty Blueprint: Week Three

Editor's Note: Ryan debuted the Dynasty Blueprint term all the way back in 2014, focusing on his personal dynasty strategy and philosophy. He introduced ideas like punting running backs and the now-common productive struggle. This series expands on the original, providing an in-depth look inside his dynasty mind.

This is my personal weekly Dynasty Blueprint. Here, you’ll find my “Game Notes,” which comes directly from my fantasy football notebook, along with multiple post-game conversations with others. In the “Game Play” section, I’ll explain what I’m doing with my personal dynasty teams, including waiver wire targets and trade ideas. Finally, “Game Theory” will focus on dynasty strategy.

GAME NOTES

49ers vs Giants

Outside of the second-half of Week Two’s game against the Cardinals, this has been a disastrous start to the Giants season. Now 1-2 on the year following another pasting, this time at the hands of the Niners, there are seemingly no Giants dynasty managers can trust in weekly lineups.

New York did their best offseason maneuvering to retain both quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Saquon Barkley, along with adding veteran tight end Darren Waller. None of those moves have paid off yet as Barkley is hurt and Jones is playing the worst football of his career, which is really saying something. Unfortunately, neither of those is surprising. What has been a shock to dynasty managers is the lack of production from former Raider Waller. Thanks to a solid Week Two performance and an overall broken tight end position, Waller is the TE8 on the year, but that also includes a Week One TE18 ranking and this past week’s pitiful TE25 finish. At 31 years of age and having been dumped by the Raiders, there is a chance Waller is simply past his prime. I’ve dropped Waller down to TE11 in my dynasty rankings but again, due to the poor state of the position, Waller remains a weekly starter moving forward.

There was a bit of good news for Giants fans and dynasty managers. Second-year receiver Wan'Dale Robinson, a personal favorite of mine, made his 2023 debut after suffering a torn ACL last season. Robinson was clearly on a pitch count, playing eleven snaps and running just nine routes, but that was still enough to earn five targets. Robinson finished with four receptions for 21 yards. He still has an uphill climb to overcome the crowded Giants receiver depth chart.

Saints vs Packers

At halftime of the Saints and Packers contest in Green Bay, the home team was being shut out and down 17 points to Derek Carr’s squad. Then, Carr went down hard, landing on his shoulder and being forced from the game. He was replaced by veteran Jameis Winston and the game changed. The Packers' comeback was on as Jordan Love ran for a short touchdown before tossing a scoring pass to Romeo Doubs.

Carr was later diagnosed with a sprained AC joint, which could keep him out multiple weeks. At the very least, look for Winston to start in Week Four against his former squad, Tampa Bay. Winston’s big arm and aggressive mindset used to be a huge boost for pass catchers, but he hasn’t looked like the same player in recent years. This is a significant downgrade for Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and company.

Love led his team to a 17-point, fourth-quarter comeback and has now notched fantasy finishes of QB3 and QB6 in his first three games as a full-time starter. As my DLF Podcast co-host pointed out, Love has produced despite multiple bad throws through three games, most noticeably his overthrow of rookie tight end Luke Musgrave in Sunday’s game. That would’ve been a sure long touchdown. The question is, should this sometimes-erratic play be viewed as a positive or negative? Obviously, NFL teams and dynasty managers don’t want their quarterback routinely missing throws, but the fact that Love is leaving some plays on the field, yet still winning and producing as a top-five fantasy scorer is an encouraging sign. Oh, and he’s done this without the Packers' two best playmakers, Aaron Jones and Christian Watson. Expect both to be back this week in a monster matchup against the Lions.

Titans vs Browns

Through three games, the Titans' backfield usage has been surprisingly competitive between veteran superstar Derrick Henry and rookie Tyjae Spears. In the team’s Week Three blowout loss to the Browns, Spears played ten more snaps than Henry as the team trailed throughout. In previous years, Henry was essentially an every-down back, even though he didn’t have a large role in the passing game. That has changed with the addition of Spears. Neither player has consistently produced, but this has the look of a situation in which Spears’ role will continue to expand. Henry is just the RB20 on the season through three games. Henry’s value has been trending down already due to his age, so once he stops producing as an RB1, he’ll be close to “roster-clogger” status.