Navigating Your Dynasty Rookie Draft: Late 3rd
For many dynasty players, the off-season highlight is the annual rookie draft. For some, that date may be rapidly approaching. Once our respective dynasty teams are eliminated from contention (and sometimes even before), we turn our attention to the incoming rookie class, and delusions of grandeur take over.
Rebuilders are full of glee as they hoard their picks, while contenders are scheming how they can pry some of those picks away, and dynasty players everywhere are champing at the bit to draft their favorite prospect.
This 12-part series will use the latest data available at Dynasty League Football: Superflex Rookie ADP from the past 30 days. We will mention the player or players you could soon add to your team via the rookie draft. We will also include options based on the 1QB rookie ADP from the same timeframe for those who play in that format.
The first round of rookie drafts includes the players we’ve been hearing about for months, if not years, but difference-makers can also be found in the second round and beyond. Each section will encompass four picks, and we will go four rounds deep to help you be as prepared as possible.
Superflex 3.09
Tank Dell, WR HOU
With the 33rd pick in superflex formats, we find Dell coming off the board. One of my favorite players to watch on film, he is a clear outlier physically, measuring in at the combine as 5’8″ and 165 lbs. There is no clear precedent for players his size being consistently fantasy-relevant. However, only a few players have had the success in college that Dell did. An absolute demon route runner, he can make defenders look silly with his elite agility and ability to create separation easily. The question that will always remain is: can he hold up physically in the NFL?
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Landing with the Texans is an extraordinary situation. They do not have a clearly defined receiver room, and they have a rookie franchise quarterback in CJ Stroud, who has no precedent for favored receivers. If Dell can physically hold up, he can carve out the role as the lead slot receiver from week one in his rookie year, and with that comes an excellent opportunity to become fantasy-relevant.
STRATEGY/OTHER OPTIONS
Once you get outside the second round of rookie drafts, the chances of finding a consistent fantasy-relevant player dwindle significantly. So, I sway towards the volume-based positions of quarterback and running back as they have an opportunity to become relevant off the back of a single injury. However, the only time I will break that is to draft a wide receiver with a boom/bust profile and a chance to outplay his draft capital massively. Dell is that guy; I would be comfortable taking him at the beginning of the third round and potentially even trade up a little. So, to grab him here is excellent value.
ONE-QUARTERBACK 3.09
Deuce Vaughn, RB DAL
Following on from a physical outlier to another. Vaughn was a hyperproductive payer in college who is another physical outlier weighing in at 5’5″, 179 lbs. As a player, he does everything you would want from a complementary back. He is a great receiver who is a natural hands catcher and can operate in space with the ball in his hands. Despite his smaller frame, he is compact and can run the ball between the tackles. He will unlikely ever become a 20-touch-per-game player, but as a potential 1b in a backfield, there is potential.
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Landing with the Dallas Cowboys is not ideal for Vaughn. He would have benefited from partnering with a bigger-bodied back who left the field on third down and obvious passing situations. Had he landed in Cleveland alongside Nick Chubb, he would have been going a lot higher in drafts. Tony Pollard is a difficult running mate because Pollard is at his best in those passing situations, which will make it tough for Vaughn to carve out any role as a rookie. However, after this year, Pollard is a free agent, so Vaughn has the chance to carve out a role in 2024 and beyond.
STRATEGY/OTHER OPTIONS
I was a big fan of Vaughn before the draft. However, the capital and landing spot was not ideal, so he fell slightly in my ranks. There is still some potential, but I would target a running back in this range who can carve out a more prominent role. If you’re on the clock staring at Vaughn here, the move is to move back or out of the pick altogether.
Superflex 3.10
DeWayne McBride, RB MIN
Off the board next is a player who was incredibly productive on the ground but utterly non-existent through the air. McBride has ideal size, impressive vision, and contact balance, but the strict two-down profile caps his ceiling.
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Landing with the Vikings is undoubtedly a more attractive situation post-Dalvin Cook‘s release. However, it is still a congested backfield, with Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler ahead of him. The narrowed skillset will also limit his opportunity to contribute in a complementary capacity.
STRATEGY/OTHER OPTIONS
I am all for drafting any running back in the third round of rookie drafts. However, plenty of other options in this price range offer more upside than McBride.
One-Quarterback 3.10
Luke Schoonmaker, TE DAL
Schoonmaker surprised many in the NFL Draft to get the capital he received, and mainly off the back of that, he comes off the board at the back end of the third round. He is likely to be a better NFL tight end than fantasy. He will be used inline as a traditional Y, limiting his upside in the receiving game.
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
The Landing spot with the Cowboys can be viewed one of two ways. On the one hand, no clear lead tight end will command all the targets and not leave the field. On the other hand, four competent young players in the position could all end up carving out that lead role.
STRATEGY/OTHER OPTIONS
I am never a fan of taking tight ends in rookie drafts, particularly in the later rounds, as they end up being roster cloggers while you wait for them to develop. At this point in the draft, I would instead take a chance at a volume-based position like running back.
Superflex 3.11
Zach Evans, RB LAR
With the penultimate pick in the third round, Evans comes off the board. He was a player who was being talked about as a day-two pick in early February; however, he fell down draft boards, and as such, his fantasy value plummeted. He has some definite upside, but a limited receiving profile could cap his ceiling.
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Landing with the Rams, it is quite an open backfield. Cam Akers is the presumed starter, but we are only nine months since the Rams were trying to give him away to any team interested. Evans has a clear path to the field, but whether he can take it and carve out a consistent role is another matter.
STRATEGY/OTHER OPTIONS
Evans is the exact type of player I want to gamble on at this point in the draft. He has a clear path to playing time and obvious talent. The chance that he ever becomes fantasy-relevant is slight, but it’s worth the gamble at this price point.
One-Quarterback 3.11
DeWayne McBride, RB MIN
As discussed earlier, Mcbride has a challenging profile as a two-down back in a congested backfield. Any running back is worth the gamble at this price point, but he is facing an uphill battle.
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Superflex 3.12
Puka Nacua, WR LAR
Nacua is the final player off the board in the third round and has an intriguing profile. He is a bigger-bodied receiver who thrives after the catch and as a blocker in the run game. He is not a natural route runner, but if he can get schemed touches where he can work, he could be great.
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
Landing with the Rams, Nacua could carve out a role in a relatively weak receiving room after Cooper Kupp. He can be used as a moveable piece, and Sean McVay will love his competitiveness and ability to feast after the catch.
STRATEGY/OTHER OPTIONS
The chances of Nacua ever carving out a role significant enough for you to feel comfortable starting him are very small. He is not a natural route runner and is unlikely ever to see substantial target volumes. Because of that, I would instead target one of the other running backs in this value range.
One-Quarterback 3.12
Puka Nacua, WR LAR
Nacua is also going off the board in one quarterback draft at the 3.12.
Data Courtesy of Sports Reference.
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Michael Penix, QB Washington - April 20, 2024
- Dynasty Decision: DK Metcalf - April 19, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Profile: Jermaine Burton, WR Alabama - April 15, 2024
