2023 Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update: Eric Gray
The NFL Draft is behind us, rookie drafts are taking place, and as dynasty managers, we are looking ahead to the upcoming season. In our Dynasty Rookie Post-Draft Update series, we break down all the incoming fantasy-relevant rookies, looking at their profiles and where they fit. The basis of the rookie profile involves the usage of STORM analysis, focusing on five key components: Situation, Talent, Opportunity, Risk, and Market.
SITUATION
Name: Eric Gray
Position: Running Back
Pro Team: New York Giants
College Team: Oklahoma
Draft Status: Round Five, Pick 172
Considering my pre-draft opinion of him, I feel like Gray found a relatively strong situation. I wasn’t sure he’d even get any draft capital, as he’s an older prospect who failed to break out fully until his senior year of college. He seemed to be a pre-draft faller, dropping out of Day 2 and into late Day 3 in most mock drafts.
However, the Giants present an intriguing opportunity for playing time and a path to the starting job. Incumbent starter Saquon Barkley is on a franchise tag for the 2023 season, which he still hasn’t signed. I’m not saying that the Giants will trade Barkley or that he won’t report to the team for the 2023 season, but there’s always a chance of issues in their contract negotiations. If that occurs, Gray will have a value increase, even if it’s just to provide a brief selling window in dynasty formats.
Luckily, Gray’s situation doesn’t require Barkley to leave town to be good for his dynasty value. The Giants lack competent backups behind Barkley, with only Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell on their current depth chart. I don’t expect either Breida or Brightwell to contribute significantly this season, so perhaps Gray can carve out a handcuff role.
TALENT
Eric Gray Combine Results:
Height: 5’ 9 ½’’
Weight: 207 lbs
Arm: 29 ⅝’’
Hand: 9 ¾’’
40-Yard Dash: 4.62 seconds (Pro Day)
Vertical Jump: 37.5’’
Broad Jump: 9’ 10’’
I’m not impressed with Gray’s athletic abilities. He chose not to run the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, and then he didn’t run a second time after his poor initial run at his Pro Day. Considering that he’s not a massive running back at 207 pounds, it’s incredible that he couldn’t even break the 4.6-second barrier.
The NFL agreed with my assessment, ranking him 21st among running backs in athleticism in this year’s class. However, they placed him 12th in production score, which makes sense. He started his college career at Tennessee in 2019, where he saw 101 carries for 539 yards and four touchdowns. Then in 2020, he became their lead back, with 157 carries for 772 yards and four touchdowns in only nine games. He also added 30 receptions for 254 yards and two touchdowns, showing his prowess in the passing game.
But after 2020, Gray made an interesting choice, transferring to Oklahoma for his junior season. Oddly, his workload collapsed that season as Kennedy Brooks took full command of the backfield. Luckily, in 2022, Gray again became the workhorse, scoring 11 rushing touchdowns and finally showing an efficient YPC. Even though he could’ve returned for 2023 due to additional eligibility from the COVID-19-interrupted 2020 season, he chose to declare for the NFL Draft after his strong senior year performance. He entered the NFL with decent overall production, although clear athletic red flags and his poor 2021 season as negatives on his resume.
OPPORTUNITY
As I referenced earlier, Gray fell into a decent situation on the Giants.
I fully believe he’s a superior talent to Breida or Brightwell, and Barkley has struggled with injuries over the past few years. For a fifth-round pick, any landing spot with a path to playing time is a good landing spot, and the Giants are also a run-heavy offense with dual-threat quarterback Daniel Jones.
RISK
The main risk with Gray is his mediocre athleticism, as described above. He doesn’t pop athletically, which is why he fell in the NFL Draft. Typically, running backs who lack that breakaway speed don’t earn starting jobs in today’s NFL, or they end up paired in a true committee with a more explosive teammate.
But Gray’s production profile also has some issues beyond his athletic concerns.
Yes, he had a strong 2022 season at Oklahoma, but he turned 23 during that year. Therefore, his best production came in a season where he was far older than most of his competition on the field, which is often a huge warning sign for incoming draft prospects.
Additionally, he will turn 24 during the 2023 NFL season, which makes it challenging for him to gain dynasty value. For a comparison, Alexander Mattison entered the NFL at 21, allowing him to sit behind Dalvin Cook for four years, and he will still barely turn 25 before this season. However, if Gray finds himself stuck behind Barkley for a few seasons, he’ll already be an “older” running back by the time he gets a chance at the starting job.
MARKET
Gray is a slight value at his current DLF rookie ADP.
I rank him similarly to his ADP, although I have him at RB12 in front of Vaughn and four overall spots higher. Compared to other players in the ADP, I’d prefer Gray to a blocking tight end like Darnell Washington, a day three wide receiver like Tyler Scott, or a long-term quarterback project in 1 QB like Will Levis. All of those players are currently ahead of Gray in rookie ADP, so he seems like a player I’ll have in a lot of rookie drafts.
I also like Gray’s position in startup drafts. He’s currently the RB65 and 203rd overall in DLF’s June ADP, and I rank him a couple of rounds higher. Typically, I prefer to select late-round running backs over late-round wide receivers in startup drafts for the superior value upside, so he’d be a common player I would choose.
Unfortunately, the DLF Trade Finder doesn’t have many trades involving Gray. However, there are a few trades where he’s a prominent piece of the deal.
This trade was one of the easiest to accept in the Trade Finder, as there’s no doubt I would rather Gray over a 2024 fifth-rounder.
In contrast, though, here’s a trade where I’d easily go against the Gray side. While I like Gray and Brenton Strange as sleepers, I’m not paying a future second-rounder for the pair of them. I’d far prefer to take that second and trade it for something else down the line. Overall, I’m fine investing in Gray, but it has to come at the right price.
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