2023 Dynasty Division Outlook: AFC West
This year, we’re bringing you a new series covering each NFL division’s dynasty fantasy football outlook. We’ll bring you an overview of each team, highlight the best and worst positional groups, and make some cool predictions for the division as a whole. Let’s jump into it!
AFC WEST OUTLOOK:
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Because of superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs are consistently among the most exciting teams in dynasty fantasy football.
He’s scored at least 20 fantasy PPG every season as a starter and more than 25 fantasy PPG in three of those five seasons. However, despite Mahomes’s excellence, the Chiefs have nothing but uncertainty on their offensive depth chart.
Of course, Travis Kelce is a stud and will remain the redraft TE1 for 2023. However, he’s already 33 years old, turning 34 in October. Beyond Kelce, the Chiefs have zero proven offensive weapons on the roster, especially since they let JuJu Smith-Schuster walk in free agency. Someone will likely step up among Kadarius Toney, Rashee Rice, or Skyy Moore, but it’s tough to say who that will be.
Additionally, the running back position isn’t set either, as Isiah Pacheco doesn’t contribute in the passing game, Jerick McKinnon is an aging veteran, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a bust. Interestingly, the Chiefs haven’t had a fantasy RB1 since Kareem Hunt in 2018, and they haven’t had a wide receiver finish in the top 24 (other than Tyreek Hill) in the entire Mahomes era. So while I love any offense led by Mahomes and coached by Andy Reid, this is one of the most uncertain sets of offensive weapons in the entire dynasty landscape.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Like the Chiefs, the Chargers have a stud quarterback, although Justin Herbert has a few more concerns than Patrick Mahomes.
He started his career with two outstanding seasons, throwing 69 total touchdowns and dominating fantasy football. However, the Chargers missed the playoffs in both of those years. Then, in 2022, he regressed in his touchdown and yardage per-game numbers, but the Chargers made their first playoff appearance in his tenure. He struggled with shoulder and rib injuries last year, though, and I fully believe he will return to stud form in 2023 and beyond.
Outside of Herbert, the Chargers mostly have an aging corps of offensive weapons.
They refused to give Austin Ekeler a contract extension this off-season, reaching an agreement on added incentives for 2023 only. As a result, there’s almost no chance he will remain on the Chargers beyond 2023. Additionally, both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have massive cap hits in 2024, and the Chargers could move on from one or both of their aging, longtime starters.
Luckily, they drafted Quentin Johnston in the first round this year, giving them at least some long-term security among their offensive weapons. But he’s the only player guaranteed to have a role on the 2024 Chargers squad. Gerald Everett is just a placeholder at tight end, and the backups to Ekeler inspire zero confidence. Also, head coach Brandon Staley is heading into his third season in 2023, and he’s on one of the hottest seats in the NFL. Therefore, outside of Herbert and Johnston, this team is transitioning from one era to the next.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Unlike the previous two teams, there’s nothing nice to say about the Raiders.
Their offensive depth chart contains far less dynasty excitement, as 30-year-old Davante Adams and franchise-tagged Josh Jacobs headline it. While both players are established dynasty assets, they’re on the older side for their positions and won’t gain dynasty value over the next year.
Unfortunately, the Raiders’ quarterback and coaching situation is one of my least favorite in the NFL. They unwisely committed three years and $72.75 million to Jimmy Garoppolo, even though he had a pre-existing foot injury that would’ve caused him to fail the team physical and required additional surgery. Additionally, head coach Josh McDaniels is one of the worst coaches in the NFL, as he has zero track record of success and seems to alienate players left and right.
Considering how messy the Raiders are, I have little interest in their ancillary pieces like Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow, Michael Mayer, or any of the backup running backs for 2023. I like Mayer long-term, as tight ends take a while to develop. But I expect the Raiders to finish last in the AFC West this year, McDaniels to be fired, Garoppolo to be gone, Jacobs to walk in free agency after 2023, and Adams to find a legitimate contender to play for in 2024 and beyond.
DENVER BRONCOS
The Broncos have a mix of stability and instability on their roster. After a disastrous 2022 season under Nathaniel Hackett, they replaced him with Sean Payton, handing him a five-year contract as one of the highest-paid coaches in the NFL. Of course, they traded for Russell Wilson last off-season, giving him a relatively ironclad contract extension that guarantees he will be the starter through 2025.
However, beyond Wilson and Payton, the Broncos have some interesting decisions to make over the next few years for their roster, which will obviously affect dynasty values.
They signed Samaje Perine in free agency to complement incumbent starter Javonte Williams, who is recovering from a devastating ACL tear. However, considering Williams’s injury, I’m surprised they didn’t also add to the position during the NFL Draft. I’m highly concerned that Williams will struggle with his recovery in 2023, and Payton will make his mark and overhaul the depth chart with a new addition or two next off-season.
More interestingly, though, the Broncos spent their top draft pick this year on Marvin Mims, trading up to acquire him with the 63rd overall pick. They also picked up Jerry Jeudy’s fifth-year option and committed over $30 million to Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick in 2024. The Broncos could trade Sutton or Patrick this year to save money, but it seems more likely they will play it out and release one or both of them next off-season.
This entire team and its dynasty value revolve around Wilson and his ability to bounce back from his struggles in 2021 and 2022.
As you can see, Wilson’s fantasy PPG plummeted due to his 2021 injuries and then the dumpster fire 2022 Broncos’ offense. If he can’t return to his form from earlier in his career, any dynasty assets that remain on the Broncos will suffer.
Positional Group Rankings:
Quarterbacks:
1. Chiefs: A+
2. Chargers: A
3. Broncos: C
4. Raiders: D
There’s no doubt about this group’s order. Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL, and Herbert is a bona fide stud. Wilson is a risky option, although the Broncos did well to add a nice backup in Jarrett Stidham. The Raiders only avoid a failing grade because they can move on from Garoppolo relatively easily after 2023.
Running Backs:
1. Raiders: B-
2. Chargers: B-
3. Broncos: C
4. Chiefs: C-
I haven’t seen a more uninspiring positional group in a division than the running backs in the AFC West. Both the Raiders and Chargers have higher-end starters, but they’re both impending free agents after 2023 with no competent backup on the roster. As for the Broncos and Chiefs, they’re both below par. However, I ranked the Broncos higher, as they have the highest upside starter in Williams and the most competent backup in Perine. The Chiefs are an absolute dumpster fire, considering that they’re relying on Jerick McKinnon to play a significant role in his age-31 season.
Wide Receivers:
1. Chargers: B+
2. Raiders: B
3. Broncos: B-
4. Chiefs: C-
Interestingly, the grades for wide receivers look similar to running backs, with no team receiving a grade in the A range. Separating the first three teams was difficult, but I assigned the Chargers a B+ for their planning. They have a potential future stud in Johnston to complement their aging starters. Additionally, they have a solid WR4 in Josh Palmer in case of injuries.
Unfortunately, the rest of the division is less intriguing. The Raiders have Davante Adams, but they don’t have any inspiring young players. I always dislike filling the roster with overpriced roster cloggers like Meyers and Renfrow, both in dynasty and for real life. The Broncos come in slightly behind, as I like Mims as a prospect, but they lack anyone with high-end potential on the roster. As for the Chiefs, they’re a work in progress with no proven players whatsoever.
Tight Ends:
1. Chiefs: A
2. Raiders: B
3. Broncos: B-
4. Chargers: F
Tight end is relatively simple for this division. Kelce is an absolute stud, although he’s getting up there in age. As for the Raiders and Broncos, I’d slightly prefer Mayer and his superior prospect profile over Greg Dulcich and his solid rookie season. The Chargers receive my first failing grade, as they have zero tight ends I believe in and no young future potential either. They should’ve drafted a tight end in this year’s NFL Draft.
Divisional Predictions:
MVP: TRAVIS KELCE, TE KC
There aren’t many choices for fantasy MVP in this division, but Kelce is a good chalk pick. Even at 33, I believe he’ll give fantasy managers one more TE1 overall season. However, considering his prime situation, I’d still be selling him in dynasty because I think this is the last opportunity to cash in big-time. He’s the TE2 and 33rd overall player in May’s DLF 1 QB ADP.
LVP: COURTLAND SUTTON, WR DEN
In that same ADP data, Sutton is the WR45 and 98th overall. That price implies he will have some fantasy relevance in 2023, and I expect nothing from him. Wilson clearly preferred Jeudy over Sutton last year, and Payton brought in a new receiver in Mims. Sutton probably needs to go to another team to have any fantasy value. I don’t have Sutton in my top 50 redraft wide receivers.
MOST IMPROVED: RUSSELL WILSON, QB DEN
Like my discussion about the AFC North’s most improved player, Deshaun Watson, Wilson earns this spot because he can’t be any worse than he was in 2022. Unlike Watson, though, I’m not nearly as confident that Wilson will bounce back in 2023. But I expect him to be a usable superflex QB2, which he was not in 2022.
BIGGEST STEAL: QUENTIN JOHNSTON, WR LAC
This division has many candidates for a potential steal, but Johnston seems the most undervalued. He’s currently the WR26 and 53rd overall in ADP data, while I rank him far higher at WR18 and 34th overall in my 1 QB rankings. I expect him to see the field immediately and succeed in Kellen Moore’s new offensive scheme. Given his upside and strong situation, he won’t be ranked that low next off-season.
BIGGEST BUST: JAVONTE WILLIAMS, RB DEN
Williams is an easy bust candidate for 2023. I don’t expect him to play much or well due to his severe knee injury. His RB16 and 50th overall price in ADP are divorced from any sense of reality. Expect him to be multiple rounds lower this time next year.
- Forgotten Dynasty Youth: Top Tier - March 27, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Tight End - February 25, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Wide Receiver - February 18, 2024
This year, we’re bringing you a new series covering each NFL division’s dynasty fantasy football outlook. We’ll bring you an overview of each team, highlight the best and worst positional groups, and make some cool predictions for the division as a whole. Let’s jump into it!
AFC WEST OUTLOOK:
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Because of superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs are consistently among the most exciting teams in dynasty fantasy football.
He’s scored at least 20 fantasy PPG every season as a starter and more than 25 fantasy PPG in three of those five seasons. However, despite Mahomes’s excellence, the Chiefs have nothing but uncertainty on their offensive depth chart.
Of course, Travis Kelce is a stud and will remain the redraft TE1 for 2023. However, he’s already 33 years old, turning 34 in October. Beyond Kelce, the Chiefs have zero proven offensive weapons on the roster, especially since they let JuJu Smith-Schuster walk in free agency. Someone will likely step up among Kadarius Toney, Rashee Rice, or Skyy Moore, but it’s tough to say who that will be.
Additionally, the running back position isn’t set either, as Isiah Pacheco doesn’t contribute in the passing game, Jerick McKinnon is an aging veteran, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a bust. Interestingly, the Chiefs haven’t had a fantasy RB1 since Kareem Hunt in 2018, and they haven’t had a wide receiver finish in the top 24 (other than Tyreek Hill) in the entire Mahomes era. So while I love any offense led by Mahomes and coached by Andy Reid, this is one of the most uncertain sets of offensive weapons in the entire dynasty landscape.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Like the Chiefs, the Chargers have a stud quarterback, although Justin Herbert has a few more concerns than Patrick Mahomes.
He started his career with two outstanding seasons, throwing 69 total touchdowns and dominating fantasy football. However, the Chargers missed the playoffs in both of those years. Then, in 2022, he regressed in his touchdown and yardage per-game numbers, but the Chargers made their first playoff appearance in his tenure. He struggled with shoulder and rib injuries last year, though, and I fully believe he will return to stud form in 2023 and beyond.
Outside of Herbert, the Chargers mostly have an aging corps of offensive weapons.
They refused to give Austin Ekeler a contract extension this off-season, reaching an agreement on added incentives for 2023 only. As a result, there’s almost no chance he will remain on the Chargers beyond 2023. Additionally, both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have massive cap hits in 2024, and the Chargers could move on from one or both of their aging, longtime starters.
Luckily, they drafted Quentin Johnston in the first round this year, giving them at least some long-term security among their offensive weapons. But he’s the only player guaranteed to have a role on the 2024 Chargers squad. Gerald Everett is just a placeholder at tight end, and the backups to Ekeler inspire zero confidence. Also, head coach Brandon Staley is heading into his third season in 2023, and he’s on one of the hottest seats in the NFL. Therefore, outside of Herbert and Johnston, this team is transitioning from one era to the next.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Unlike the previous two teams, there’s nothing nice to say about the Raiders.
Their offensive depth chart contains far less dynasty excitement, as 30-year-old Davante Adams and franchise-tagged Josh Jacobs headline it. While both players are established dynasty assets, they’re on the older side for their positions and won’t gain dynasty value over the next year.
Unfortunately, the Raiders’ quarterback and coaching situation is one of my least favorite in the NFL. They unwisely committed three years and $72.75 million to Jimmy Garoppolo, even though he had a pre-existing foot injury that would’ve caused him to fail the team physical and required additional surgery. Additionally, head coach Josh McDaniels is one of the worst coaches in the NFL, as he has zero track record of success and seems to alienate players left and right.
Considering how messy the Raiders are, I have little interest in their ancillary pieces like Jakobi Meyers, Hunter Renfrow, Michael Mayer, or any of the backup running backs for 2023. I like Mayer long-term, as tight ends take a while to develop. But I expect the Raiders to finish last in the AFC West this year, McDaniels to be fired, Garoppolo to be gone, Jacobs to walk in free agency after 2023, and Adams to find a legitimate contender to play for in 2024 and beyond.
DENVER BRONCOS
The Broncos have a mix of stability and instability on their roster. After a disastrous 2022 season under Nathaniel Hackett, they replaced him with Sean Payton, handing him a five-year contract as one of the highest-paid coaches in the NFL. Of course, they traded for Russell Wilson last off-season, giving him a relatively ironclad contract extension that guarantees he will be the starter through 2025.
However, beyond Wilson and Payton, the Broncos have some interesting decisions to make over the next few years for their roster, which will obviously affect dynasty values.
They signed Samaje Perine in free agency to complement incumbent starter Javonte Williams, who is recovering from a devastating ACL tear. However, considering Williams’s injury, I’m surprised they didn’t also add to the position during the NFL Draft. I’m highly concerned that Williams will struggle with his recovery in 2023, and Payton will make his mark and overhaul the depth chart with a new addition or two next off-season.
More interestingly, though, the Broncos spent their top draft pick this year on Marvin Mims, trading up to acquire him with the 63rd overall pick. They also picked up Jerry Jeudy’s fifth-year option and committed over $30 million to Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick in 2024. The Broncos could trade Sutton or Patrick this year to save money, but it seems more likely they will play it out and release one or both of them next off-season.
This entire team and its dynasty value revolve around Wilson and his ability to bounce back from his struggles in 2021 and 2022.
As you can see, Wilson’s fantasy PPG plummeted due to his 2021 injuries and then the dumpster fire 2022 Broncos’ offense. If he can’t return to his form from earlier in his career, any dynasty assets that remain on the Broncos will suffer.
Positional Group Rankings:
Quarterbacks:
1. Chiefs: A+
2. Chargers: A
3. Broncos: C
4. Raiders: D
There’s no doubt about this group’s order. Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL, and Herbert is a bona fide stud. Wilson is a risky option, although the Broncos did well to add a nice backup in Jarrett Stidham. The Raiders only avoid a failing grade because they can move on from Garoppolo relatively easily after 2023.
Running Backs:
1. Raiders: B-
2. Chargers: B-
3. Broncos: C
4. Chiefs: C-
I haven’t seen a more uninspiring positional group in a division than the running backs in the AFC West. Both the Raiders and Chargers have higher-end starters, but they’re both impending free agents after 2023 with no competent backup on the roster. As for the Broncos and Chiefs, they’re both below par. However, I ranked the Broncos higher, as they have the highest upside starter in Williams and the most competent backup in Perine. The Chiefs are an absolute dumpster fire, considering that they’re relying on Jerick McKinnon to play a significant role in his age-31 season.
Wide Receivers:
1. Chargers: B+
2. Raiders: B
3. Broncos: B-
4. Chiefs: C-
Interestingly, the grades for wide receivers look similar to running backs, with no team receiving a grade in the A range. Separating the first three teams was difficult, but I assigned the Chargers a B+ for their planning. They have a potential future stud in Johnston to complement their aging starters. Additionally, they have a solid WR4 in Josh Palmer in case of injuries.
Unfortunately, the rest of the division is less intriguing. The Raiders have Davante Adams, but they don’t have any inspiring young players. I always dislike filling the roster with overpriced roster cloggers like Meyers and Renfrow, both in dynasty and for real life. The Broncos come in slightly behind, as I like Mims as a prospect, but they lack anyone with high-end potential on the roster. As for the Chiefs, they’re a work in progress with no proven players whatsoever.
Tight Ends:
1. Chiefs: A
2. Raiders: B
3. Broncos: B-
4. Chargers: F
Tight end is relatively simple for this division. Kelce is an absolute stud, although he’s getting up there in age. As for the Raiders and Broncos, I’d slightly prefer Mayer and his superior prospect profile over Greg Dulcich and his solid rookie season. The Chargers receive my first failing grade, as they have zero tight ends I believe in and no young future potential either. They should’ve drafted a tight end in this year’s NFL Draft.
Divisional Predictions:
MVP: TRAVIS KELCE, TE KC
There aren’t many choices for fantasy MVP in this division, but Kelce is a good chalk pick. Even at 33, I believe he’ll give fantasy managers one more TE1 overall season. However, considering his prime situation, I’d still be selling him in dynasty because I think this is the last opportunity to cash in big-time. He’s the TE2 and 33rd overall player in May’s DLF 1 QB ADP.
LVP: COURTLAND SUTTON, WR DEN
In that same ADP data, Sutton is the WR45 and 98th overall. That price implies he will have some fantasy relevance in 2023, and I expect nothing from him. Wilson clearly preferred Jeudy over Sutton last year, and Payton brought in a new receiver in Mims. Sutton probably needs to go to another team to have any fantasy value. I don’t have Sutton in my top 50 redraft wide receivers.
MOST IMPROVED: RUSSELL WILSON, QB DEN
Like my discussion about the AFC North’s most improved player, Deshaun Watson, Wilson earns this spot because he can’t be any worse than he was in 2022. Unlike Watson, though, I’m not nearly as confident that Wilson will bounce back in 2023. But I expect him to be a usable superflex QB2, which he was not in 2022.
BIGGEST STEAL: QUENTIN JOHNSTON, WR LAC
This division has many candidates for a potential steal, but Johnston seems the most undervalued. He’s currently the WR26 and 53rd overall in ADP data, while I rank him far higher at WR18 and 34th overall in my 1 QB rankings. I expect him to see the field immediately and succeed in Kellen Moore’s new offensive scheme. Given his upside and strong situation, he won’t be ranked that low next off-season.
BIGGEST BUST: JAVONTE WILLIAMS, RB DEN
Williams is an easy bust candidate for 2023. I don’t expect him to play much or well due to his severe knee injury. His RB16 and 50th overall price in ADP are divorced from any sense of reality. Expect him to be multiple rounds lower this time next year.
- Forgotten Dynasty Youth: Top Tier - March 27, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Tight End - February 25, 2024
- NFL Expiring Contracts In 2025: Wide Receiver - February 18, 2024
