May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Running Backs
This series acknowledges ADP swings from one year ago, May 2022, to our recent ADP update. I will look at ADP changes for each position with this article, focusing on running backs. The 1QB mock drafts happened following the 2023 NFL Draft. I will talk about risers and fallers, and any notable selection(s) within. Let’s jump right into it.
Note: rookies were involved in the drafts. They will not be referenced due to not having an ADP from 2022.
Notable Running Back Selections
These running backs are specific selections I wanted to note separately from their riser or faller category.
Kenneth Walker, SEA – RB7 (+12.17)
As a rookie, Walker managed 1,215 scrimmage yards. Seattle rewarded him by selecting Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. The running back position is an important position to have depth, which is why they also drafted Kenny McIntosh in the seventh round.
I have zero idea how to view this situation. Charbonnet may take the third down role, or maybe Seattle rides the hot hand. I think it is fair to assume Walker and Charbonnet will both be involved, we just do not know the distribution.
Travis Etienne, JAC – RB8 (+20.83)
Doug Pederson turned Jacksonville around in his first year. Etienne had 1,441 scrimmage yards and is being drafted in the early third. The team did invest in Tank Bigsby with the 88th overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft. Bigsby is a notable selection, not just a sixth-round depth-piece acquisition.
Running Back Risers
In dynasty, it is often easy to understand why a running back will rise in ADP. This could be due to a lead back in a high-powered offense or a rookie running back proving their ability despite concerns heading into the season. This could be due to a young running back who likely retains a viable role in an offense.
Tony Pollard, DAL – RB12 (+65.67)
Dallas seems committed to Pollard, a running back who is efficient. It is unfortunate he is playing on the franchise tag. Regardless, it is fair to assume he will see heavy volume. We can only hope for a contract extension, at worst another franchise tag like Le’Veon Bell.
Rachaad White, TB – RB18 (+48.67)
The departure of Leonard Fournette and no significant acquisition during 2023 free agency or the NFL Draft results in White as Tampa Bay’s RB1. He also provides utility as a receiving threat, which is appealing in PPR leagues. In a limited role, he had 50 receptions in his rookie campaign.
Alexander Mattison, MIN – RB37 (+17.17)
The off-season has had numerous reports and speculation in which Minnesota will move on from Dalvin Cook. Mattison signed a two-year extension, too. He has flourished when Cook did not play, averaging 115.5 scrimmage yards per game. If Cook is cut or traded, Mattison will see a drastic increase in value and will be a fringe RB1 for production purposes.
Additional Risers
- Rhamondre Stevenson, NE – RB13 (+72.16)
- I have noted Stevenson over the last few articles in this series, mainly the concern regarding a healthy running back room. This does not mean Stevenson will not lead the room in volume.
- Dameon Pierce, HOU – RB20 (+51.17)
- He survived free agency and the NFL Draft. Another high-volume season is expected.
- Khalil Herbert, CHI – RB39 (+46.50)
- Herbert is an efficient runner. Chicago just invested in Roschon Johnson during the draft and signed D’Onta Foreman to a one-year deal.
Running Back Fallers
Similarly to running back risers, it is often easy to understand why a running back will fall in ADP. I do not want to bore you with obvious selections like Ezekiel Elliott or Leonard Fournette. We know they are aging players at the tail end of their careers.
Javonte Williams, DEN – RB16 (-43.33)
We know Williams is a great runner. We also know he is recovering from his ACL and LCL tears. Drafters likely view his 2023 season as a wash. It does not make sense to invest in a player you are not comfortable starting until 2024. Regardless, Williams is young and reports are expecting him to be ready for training camp. It is fair to assume he will be off to a slow start, similar to JK Dobbins in 2022.
David Montgomery, DET – RB34 (-54.67)
Detroit signed Montgomery to a three-year contract, with only $11 million in guaranteed money. Looking at his contract, he likely will remain with Detroit through the 2024 season. This means he has two years to provide production. We are unsure of his role but he will pair with rookie Jahmyr Gibbs.
Montgomery seems safe, especially at pick 96.83 where he is being drafted. Drafters are able to prioritize young talent while finding a potential weekly starter – for two seasons.
Additional Fallers
- Antonio Gibson, WAS – RB40 (-75.16)
- Lofty expectations have clouded Gibson and Brian Robinson’s usage have resulted in a substantial fall. I am intrigued with Eric Bieniemy bringing a new system over, the one where we saw Jerick McKinnon flourish in 2022.
- D’Andre Swift, PHI – RB19 (-51.16)
- Swift was not a between-the-tackles runner, possibly what Detroit wants. Philadelphia will look to utilize Swift’s skill set properly. He is due a contract following the season.
- Cam Akers, LAR – RB23 (-44.5)
- The lack of receiving production may keep drafters away. Following a slow start, he ended the final six games of the 2022 season strong with 17.3 carries per game.
Discussion
The position is viewed to have a shorter shelf-life. This may explain why we are seeing running backs fall in drafts. This does not mean you will not get production from the running backs. Drafters may prefer to lock down their wide receiver or tight end room first. Your league’s scoring will determine which running backs to prioritize, at least in the later rounds. Nick Chubb is not heavily involved in the receiving game but has three RB1 seasons in PPR scoring over the last four seasons.
There is a shift in how drafters are prioritizing running backs. When making a selection it will be important to note if there are any environmental changes such as coaching changes and/or newly acquired talent. Injuries, specifically potential for injury, influence selections, too.
There may be a time in the future when we see talented running backs being left in the middle-to-late rounds because of the concern surrounding how many years you will get out of the player. We should be concerned with how many points we will get out of the player, too. Remember, the goal is to win championships, not just build a young team.
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Tight Ends - May 31, 2023
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Wide Receivers - May 30, 2023
- May Dynasty ADP Risers and Fallers: Running Backs - May 29, 2023
