Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings vs ADP: Tight End
In this series, we explore the difference between DLF rankings and ADP in superflex leagues. Who does the DLF crew value more and less than consensus?
This is our first complete cycle through the fantasy positions as we round it out with tight end. There are much fewer differences at this position, especially within the top 100 picks.
So, let’s dig in and look.
Position Observations
The top five tight ends have had record average ADP over the last three years. Presumably, as the positional advantage of Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews has been targeted, along with the rookie potential of the rookie phenom (in value at least) Kyle Pitts.
ADP and rankings are in lockstep until the third tight end is off the board in round four. While both groups take Travis Kelce as the first overall tight end by round three, that’s only on average, because six out of the eight rankers don’t have Kelce as the TE1. Of those who don’t, the majority have Kyle Pitts as the first tight end and one lone person is putting Mark Andrews ahead of the crowd.
The two groups quickly diverge further by the middle of round four with ADP taking three extra players at the position.
The DLF rankings stubbornly avoid the position until round eight, adding only one more tight end in that time (George Kittle). While rankings catch up by round 11 or so, they are still taking players at the position at a significantly lower rate.
In other words, rankings do not work to catch up at the tight end position but instead, continue to let them fall in favor of other positions.
Let’s dig in and see what if any nuances in this trend might appeal to us in active dynasty leagues.
Evan Engram, TE JAC
The clearest difference is that the rankings group is heavily in favor of “selling” Engram. Perhaps this distribution comes from concerns over the distribution of targets on the Jaguars once Calvin Ridley arrives. I don’t think so considering the ranking’s higher value of David Njoku, another “post-hype” breakout candidate in 2022.
In any case, it seems they would happily trade him for Darren Waller and, presumably, consider any plus they got in the deal as a bonus.
Pat Freiermuth, TE PIT
Both rankings and ADP place Freiermuth in their seventh round but rankings have him slightly higher, willing to reach a few spots to lock in the third-year, second-round, 258-pound behemoth.
While it’s tough to see a path to offensive improvement in Pittsburgh right now – especially with George Pickens displaying such capability as a rookie and Diontae Johson operating a high-volume role – it’s important to note that Freiermuth has been doing well despite this since he was drafted.
In his rookie season, Freiermuth impressed with a high and unsustainable touchdown rate, but in 2022 he backed that up by co-opting 98 targets and 732 receiving yards. At 24 years old he remains the only tight end from the 2021 class who has not disappointed.
George Kittle, TE SF
If there was one piece of advice the rankings offer anyone interested, it seems to be to trade for Kittle. While the difference between the two groups is lower than we have seen at other positions, I think it’s remarkable that Kittle is the one player at the position, especially inside the top 100 picks, who they find any value in “reaching” on at all.
His being drafted behind TJ Hockenson – if I may speak for the group for a second – is a travesty.
The DLF Trade Calculator places his value around the 1.08 in superflex drafts, and the Trade Finder suggests a younger tight end like Cade Otton or Isaiah Likely plus some second-round rookie draft capital as a package could tempt your league-mates into a mistake. Although he more often trades in a package or for a current and future first-round pick.
David Njoku, TE CLE
Njoku’s ranking value seems to be based mainly on getting so much – 628 receiving yards and eight targets – for so relatively little – a tenth-round startup pick.
A Trends?
Rankers are eager and willing to place young potential over mediocre veterans. Added to this, they have two young players at the position ranked inside the top 12 as opposed to ADP, Greg Dulcich and Cole Kmet.
Anyway, that’s about all I have for the tight end position this week. To keep you updated on my moves in dynasty, I couldn’t find much movement on many of the players we talked about at wide receiver however I was able to add Rashod Bateman and a 2023 second-round pick for a 2024 first-round pick. Let me know if you get anything going on with the players we mention in your leagues and how it worked out in the comments below.
UDFA's matter | British ex-pat | Writer of things
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