Dynasty Alternatives: Two Pivots You Could Make in Your Leagues
In case you didn’t know, DLF has a YouTube channel! We post FREE video content over there at least five days a week covering dynasty trades, strategy, and player analysis. For my videos specifically, I write out a script to basically read when I record, but I realized that script could be turned into written content for anyone who doesn’t want to watch YouTube to read too! So, without further ado, here is an “article-ized” version of one of my recent videos covering dynasty alternatives to highly valued players!
Being able to trade down within tiers at positions, while still maintaining production, is by far the easiest way to add draft capital or more assets in general to your roster, and that will be the point of this series throughout the off-season. The way this will work is I will show you stats from two similar players in similar situations with similar production, but one is valued at a premium in startup drafts or trades and the other is valued as the generic version, and then we’ll break it down.
First up, we have a wide receiver comparison. Our premium receiver is currently 24 years old, and over his last 17 games, he has produced 117 targets, 75 receptions, 1,350 yards, and 8 TDs, averaging 15.3 fantasy points per game, with seven top-24 weeks and six top-12.
Our generic receiver is also 24 years old, and over his last 17 games, he has produced: 136 targets, 95 receptions, 1,200 yards, and 7 TDs, averaging 15.1 fantasy points per game, with 11 top-24 weeks and four top-12.
To further feed the comparison, both WRs are the WR2s on their own teams after their teams traded for an elite wide receiver last spring, and not only were they first-round picks in the same draft class, but they also got drafted out of the same college.
If you haven’t guessed it yet, our premium player is Jaylen Waddle, currently valued as WR5 in January ADP as the 1.06 in 1QB startups. The generic receiver is DeVonta Smith, currently valued as WR14 at the 2/3 turn of 1QB startups.
Jaylen Waddle, WR MIA to DeVonta Smith, WR PHI
So why the discrepancy? To me, this one boils down to the difference in their production in their rookie years, as Waddle had a huge season in 2021 with over 100 receptions and 1,000 yards on 140 targets. He was the next best rookie wide receiver behind Ja’Marr Chase and that really got people’s attention last year.
But it’s not like Smith had a horrible rookie season though, as he had over 900 receiving yards on almost 40 fewer targets and receptions, and one fewer touchdown than Waddle. He succeeded much more as a deep threat in the Eagles offense than Waddle did, despite Waddle being seen as more of the vertical guy coming out of college.
But then when AJ Brown got traded to Philly and Tyreek Hill to Miami, we were less concerned about Waddle’s role because he already had 140 targets, so we were more confident he wouldn’t get pushed aside so easily, like we thought Smith might be with Brown in the mix. That difference I think is still driving a lot of the ADP difference between the two now because either people don’t know they both produced almost identical seasons in identical situations this year, or we think Smith’s was more flukey and less reproducible than Waddle’s, again because of our prior beliefs that Waddle is more established in his offense.
But we shouldn’t be thinking like that at all, which is why you should be taking advantage of the price difference and selling Waddle for DeVonta Smith+. Our trade analyzer believes you should be able to get Smith plus a mid-late first for Waddle right now in both 1QB and superflex leagues.
And actually, in our Trade Finder, there is a trade from the beginning of December that essentially boils down to Waddle for Smith and the 1.11. If you’re a team that doesn’t have any firsts or looking to add another first in this 2023 class – here’s how to do it.
Next, we have a running back comparison. Our premium running back just turned 24 a couple of weeks ago in January and over his last 17 games, has averaged per game: 6.6 rush attempts, 35.5 rushing yards, 4.8 targets, 3.4 receptions, 24.8 receiving yards, 0.6 TDs, and 12.7 fantasy points per game, with nine top-24 weeks and four top-12 weeks.
The generic running back is also 24, turning 25 in the summer, and over his last 17 games, has averaged per game: 10.4 rush attempts, 42.4 rushing yards, 3.8 targets, 2.9 receptions, 22.8 receiving yards, 0.4 TDs, and 11.9 FPPG, with nine top-24 weeks and three top-12 weeks.
To further feed the comparison, both RBs were second-round picks in the same draft class, they are both players we would like to be three-down workhorses but haven’t been due to either injury, coaching staff, or both, and both players were largely overshadowed this year by their complement between the tackles bruising RB2 in their committees.
So, if you haven’t guessed it, our premium player is D’Andre Swift, currently valued as RB8 in January ADP in the late 2nd of 1QB startups. The generic player is Antonio Gibson, all the way down at RB38 outside the top-115 players in 1QB startups.
D’Andre Swift, RB DET to Antonio Gibson, RB WAS
So why the discrepancy? To be honest, I was super surprised at both players’ ADPs. Based on how people talk about Swift in general, I would’ve thought he’d be a mid-RB2 because everyone hates him. I also didn’t expect Antonio Gibson to be way down at RB38 behind Kareem Hunt and two spots ahead of Alexander Mattison, like what are we doing here?
I get the disappointment associated with both players and the fatigue that is starting to build as we enter another off-season where yet again both players are criminally undervalued based on their numbers on a per-game basis – I get it. But… RB38??? I still cannot believe this value.
You’re telling me the community prefers Devin Singletary, Kareem Hunt, Ezekiel Elliott, Khalil Herbert, Isiah Pacheco, and James Cook OVER Antonio Gibson? A player who just a year ago finished as a top-ten fantasy running back?? I get his role has changed and Brian Robinson is “the better running back” (he’s not), but, c’mon.
Looking at his recent trades in the Trade Finder is just sad…
If we go back to the trade analyzer, it’s telling us we can move off D’Andre Swift for Gibson + the 1.06 in superflex leagues, or Gibson + the 1.03-1.04 in 1QB leagues. An early-mid first is already a fantastic way to just get out from Swift in general if you have been looking to do that, let alone adding what feels like a throw-in piece in Gibson, and that’s an easy deal to make again, either regain or add more draft capital to your arsenal this off-season.
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