Dynasty Fantasy Football: Targets Acquired
Standing still is the fastest way of moving backward in a rapidly changing dynasty landscape. The best dynasty teams are the most active in looking for ways to add value to their dynasty rosters, as part of a continuous process.
The Dynasty Targets Acquired series focuses on making dynasty buys to improve your roster, heading towards one of two key destinations – contending to win a dynasty title in 2023 or rebuilding for a dynasty title challenge in 2024. Each article in the series will highlight a dynasty buy for both contenders and rebuilders – with three trade ideas based on the DLF Trade Analyzer: Pivot Up, Same Tier or Pivot Down.
Buying as a contender is all about winning the title now, whilst leaving the window open to compete again year after year. Buying as a rebuilder is all about making the right trades to maximize roster value next season and become a contender for a dynasty championship.
TIME CONTEXT AND STRATEGY
It’s championship week in dynasty leagues! All of the hard work you’ve put into your team comes down to this. If there isn’t a trade deadline in your league, it’s the last chance to secure a fantasy title. And, if you aren’t still alive, it’s the last chance you have to take advantage of a fantasy manager desperate to win it all.
Trade deadlines are controversial in dynasty leagues. On one hand, you should always have the opportunity to improve your team, whether it is for the next season or for the next week. But, on the other hand, it can be demoralizing to miss out on a playoff spot, or a championship, to a team that sold the farm to win just one matchup.
Personally, I’m in the camp that there should be a trade deadline a week or so before the playoffs begin. That gives you plenty of time to solidify your team and secure handcuffs or insurance policies for your star players.
That being said, if your league doesn’t have a deadline, then this is the opportunity to take advantage of your rulebook. This article will focus more on the small picture of week 17, more than the big picture of year-to-year contending or rebuilding. It’s a one-week league for the contenders, and for the rebuilders, it is a busy time of the year where fantasy may be the last thing on your league mates’ minds.
CONTENDER BUY – Tyreek Hill, WR MIA
It’s week 17 and it is time to go and get that title! It’s also time for Hill to step up and break Calvin Johnson’s yardage record. With two weeks left to go in Hill’s season, he needs 323 to match Johnson’s record of 1,964 yards in a single season. That means he needs 162 yards per game to beat the record. It’s a tall task, but it certainly is not impossible, as Hill has gone over that number three times this season.
It has been an incredible season for Hill, a league-winning player in fantasy and an MVP candidate in reality. But, he has hit a rut lately. He hasn’t gone over 100 yards or scored since week 13. It’s very possible that a team that rode the wave with Hill has been knocked out of the playoffs in the last few weeks. That team isn’t playing for anything anymore, and, if you’re going for a title, Hill is lined up for a huge game in week 17.
Hill gets the Ravens this week, a team that has struggled against wide receivers in recent weeks. Over the past four weeks, the Ravens have given up an average of 43.2 points per game to receivers, the second-highest total in the league. The defense showed up big time on Monday night against the 49ers, but Brandon Aiyuk still had a big game (6-133). Wide receivers have been able to score big against the Ravens in recent weeks, and Hill is one of the best.
Hill will also benefit from a lack of target competition. Jaylen Waddle suffered an ankle sprain in last week’s game and, as of Wednesday, it doesn’t look like he will play this week. In the last game Waddle missed in week 3, Hill scored 30.7 PPR points, catching nine of his 11 targets for 157 yards and a touchdown. Tua Tagovailoa will need to lean on Hill to have a chance against the Ravens this week.
Hill is not a cheap option for a trade, he’s been the best wide receiver in football this season and a dominant fantasy football weapon. But, for dynasty, there are some red flags that may bring his price down a bit. For one thing, he’s said in the past that he only wants to play football for a few more years before retiring to focus on other ventures. If that is true, the clock is ticking and the Hill manager may only have one or two more years to cash out on Hill’s value. To buy a dynasty fantasy championship, it will be worth the higher price tag.
It’s a smash spot for Hill this week as he chases a record and you chase a fantasy football championship. He won’t be cheap, but if your league doesn’t have a trade deadline, now is absolutely the time to take advantage of that!
PIVOT UP
Pivot Up – acquiring a higher-valued asset in exchange for multiple lower-valued assets.
Now is the time to clear out all of the “valuable” assets on your bench and cash them in for a fantasy football championship. This trade does just that for a team competing for a title. Tank Dell is on IR and Michael Wilson isn’t a viable option for this week. With those two rookies, and a first-round pick, this manager added Hill and Travis Kelce to their lineup for the playoff stretch. Kelce has obviously been a major disappointment, but he’s still going to be at the top of most tight end rankings every single week. According to the DLF Trade Analyzer, this is a big win for the side receiving Hill and Kelce, so you may need to set your sights more on Hill and a throw-in player or pick to get this deal done.
SAME TIER
Same Tier – acquiring an asset in the same tier of valuation, in a straight-up swap deal.
This is a great trade to make with someone who is out of the running for a title this week. Garrett Wilson has a ton of value in dynasty leagues right now, but he is very unlikely to win you a fantasy championship this week, like Hill is. It is going to hurt to pull this trade off, but it will be worth it when your name is on that trophy. You get to acquire one of the top wide receivers for this week in fantasy football, and you only have to give up a WR3 for this week.
PIVOT DOWN
Pivot Down – acquiring multiple lower-valued assets in exchange for a higher-valued asset.
It’s tough to pull off a “pivot-down” trade for Hill. He is already one of the highest-valued dynasty assets in the game, so to give up someone worth even more than he is may hurt your chances to win in Week 17. That being said, Hill is a big upgrade over Bijan Robinson for week 17, especially if you have an adequate running back to fill in for him. Meanwhile, DeAndre Hopkins is a player who may slot in as a flex player. Robinson is an absolute stud and has a bright future in the league, but right now on this Falcons team, he’s tough to consider as an RB1 in your lineups this week.
REBUILDER BUY – Jameson Williams, WR DET
Since Williams was drafted in the first round of 2022, nothing has gone right for his fantasy football managers. He’s been injured, suspended and sent to the fantasy football dog house. That being said, in the last few weeks, things have turned around for him in Detroit.
The numbers don’t jump off the page, but the trend is evident. He’s hit season highs in targets, receptions, snap percentage and target share in the last two weeks. This time next year, it isn’t hard to see an elite group of receivers emerge in Detroit with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Williams, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs coming out of the backfield. This could be an elite offense, and starting next year Williams could be an elite piece of it.
Jameson Williams had his lowest ADoT of the season since week 1 last week at just 5.5 yards per target. Typically, it is better to see a higher ADoT than that, but it highlights the increased usage for Williams in recent weeks. He is no longer just a deep threat, as he was earlier in the season, when he was only getting a few targets a game. The Lions are finally utilizing his athleticism, getting the ball in his hands, and giving him a chance to earn some YAC.
Jameson Williams might have housed this had St. Brown got a better piece of the CB.
But realistically I’m tweeting this cause of Penei Sewell’s movement skills breaking the space-time continuum theory. Sorry science. pic.twitter.com/CMnghGn6zl
— Al Karsten (@bigalfredosauce) December 25, 2023
Williams is a great option to buy right now for a rebuilding team, as he will not be starting in any championship lineups for week 17. Now is an opportunity to move on from an aging veteran who will produce this week, for a high-upside weapon who will produce for years to come.
PIVOT UP
Pivot Up – acquiring a higher-valued asset in exchange for multiple lower-valued assets.
If you’re out of the running, James Conner is a nice player to sell high on to a team that is still competing for a championship. He’s coming off of a big game and could be a nice RB2 option for a contending team. Williams isn’t doing anything on that contending team this week, so the opposing manager might be very willing to offload that asset to win a title this week. If that contending team just lost a tight end, like TJ Hockenson, they could be even more motivated to make this trade for a player like Cole Kmet.
SAME TIER
Same Tier – acquiring an asset in the same tier of valuation, in a straight-up swap deal.
Here’s a great trade for a rebuilding team. You get to move on from a 31-year-old receiver for a player nine years older, while the contending team gets a player that they can start this week. The DLF Trade Analyzer favors the Williams side of the trade, so you’ll likely need to throw in a pick or two to make a trade like this work out.
PIVOT DOWN
Pivot Down – acquiring multiple lower-valued assets in exchange for a higher-valued asset.
This trade happened in a dynasty league earlier this month. The rebuilding team gets Williams and rookie Packers receiver Jayden Reed. Meanwhile, the contending team gets a potential league-winning player in Cooper Kupp. Kupp is no longer a first-round pick in fantasy football leagues, and may have even been usurped by rookie sensation Puka Nacua. If you’re already out this season, Kupp doesn’t do much for your team. But, Williams and Reed could be great pieces for a rebuild.
SUMMARY
While most leagues no longer allow trading at this point in the season, the ones that do provide a unique opportunity for managers to take advantage of these rules. Contending teams can acquire another piece of the championship puzzle. Meanwhile, eliminated teams can acquire young players for cheap who are on the benches of the teams that are still alive. Check out the benches of the teams that are in the finals of your league’s playoffs and see if there is someone you can poach off of their team for an aging veteran to accelerate your rebuild.
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