Dynasty GAAP Memo: Rashee Rice Breakout Breakdown
I am a CPA who fits the typical accountant stereotype. I enjoy writing technical accounting memos, accounting research (yes, it’s a thing), and analyzing the financial statements of a business. In accounting, you often must evaluate qualitative and quantitative factors during complex transactions to forecast future performance. I have found that the outlook and rationale of evaluating business transactions parallels another interest of mine, dynasty fantasy football.
In dynasty, we are given both quantitative factors (athletic scores, draft capital, college production, etc.) and qualitative factors (camp hype, team situation, injury history, etc.) that we must consider and evaluate to derive an estimate or projection of a player. Then, we must take calculated risks based on our team’s overall financial statements (i.e., current roster and league). I could go on and on with accounting-based puns and comparisons, but I think you get it.
I will note that I will write in the form of “accounting memos.” For anyone who has not been exposed, the format is very standard. Each memo will start with the “purpose.” Next, it will outline the applicable “guidance” or accounting literature utilized and supply background. Last will be the analysis and conclusion. The goal is to state the issue and quickly address it. My write-ups will follow this same logic.
To summarize, welcome to “Good at Analyzing Players” or “GAAP.” And yes, this is a play on “Generally Accepted Accounting Principles” and my wife did come up with it.
Purpose
The purpose of this memo is to evaluate the value of Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs WR.
Background
Rashee Rice (“Rice”) is 23 and was selected 55th overall (second round) in the 2023 draft by the Kansas City Chiefs. Rice has prototypical size at 6’ 0” and 200 pounds. Despite ranking fifth in the FBS with 96 receptions and third with 1,355 receiving yards in 2022 and landing with the best QB in football (Patrick Mahomes), Rice fell to the second round of rookie drafts. This was interesting because on film he flashed prototypical X-receiver traits with impressive ball skills, great ball-tracking, and jump-ball victors. However, he also showed lackadaisical route running and struggled with drops at times.
Another element of his fall in rookie drafts was the recency bias of Skyy Moore from the 2022 draft. Similar to Rice, he was selected in the second round of the NFL draft and did not perform during his rookie season. Moore only had 22 catches for 250 yards in 2022 after many dynasty managers spent a first-round rookie pick on him due to the situation. There was also this stigma that rookie WRs do not produce within Andy Reid’s complex offense fighting against Rice.
It may appear that the pendulum swung too far on Rice. Since being drafted, Rice had done his best to debunk the “rookie WR do not produce in Andy Reids offense” sentiment to the tune of 68 receptions, 754 yards, and 7 TDs. This is on pace for 82 receptions, 915 yards, and 8.5 TDs over 17 games. As a Chiefs fan, I have had the opportunity to watch him weekly and he reminds me of Deebo Samuel with his yards after the catch ability and dare I say Travis Kelce-esque routes to in the zone and run QB friendly routes. While he had a few drops early in the season, since then he has been by far the surest handed of the Chiefs WRs (which admittedly does not take much).
Please see the metrics and discussion points below on Rice:
- Breakout Age: 20.4 years old (53rd Percentile)
- 40 Yard Dash Time: 4.51 seconds (63th Percentile)
- Speed Score: 95.4 (58th Percentile)
- DLF Dynasty Rankings:
- Overall: 83
- WR: 39
- College Stats (SMU):
- 2022: 96 receptions; 1,355 yards; 10 TDs
- 2021: 64 receptions; 670 yards; 9 TDs
- 2020: 48 receptions; 683 yards; 5 TDs
- 2019: 25 receptions; 403 yards; 1 TD
- Fun Stuff:
- Rice has an 81% catch rate, which is the highest for a rookie receiver with at least 70 targets. The data goes back to 1992.
- Through week fifteen, Rice has the most receiving touchdowns by a rookie in Chiefs history, passing Frank Arbanas, Stephone Paige, Tyreek Hill, and Mecole Hardman.
- Rice now ranks third among all rookies in catches (68), third in touchdown receptions (7) and fourth in receiving yards (754).
- At 68, Rice is now three catches behind receiver Dwayne Bowe‘s rookie receptions record and 241 yards behind Bowe’s record of 995 yards.
Resources
- Sleeper: Great interface for looking up historical statistics
- DLF Dynasty Rankings: Best dynasty rankings in the industry
- DLF Average Draft Position (“ADP”) Data: Best resource to gauge current player value. Based upon real dynasty startups.
Analysis
Investors, like fantasy managers, are always looking for the next growth stock (or player). One way to identify these is to utilize a “stock screener.” A stock screener is a set of tools that allow investors to quickly sort through the myriad of available stocks according to the investor’s own criteria. Stock screeners can deliver alerts if certain user-defined parameters have been met which draws investor attention to key buying or selling opportunities.
What makes Rice interesting is that he did not break out immediately. His production and playing time has been a gradual week-to-week increase over the course of the season. He did not eclipse a 50% snap share until week seven and did not get over seven targets until week twelve. However, the table below summarizes his projection the last four weeks beginning in week twelve:
Week twelve was Rice’s breakout where he eclipsed 100 yards for the first time in his NFL career. Since then, the young WR has finished as a WR1 75% of the time. While we have been spoiled with recent rookie WR success, Rice’s progression in his rookie season is more standard (especially in a complex system like the Chiefs). If we apply the stock screen premise to this factor and think back on other players that have had a similar late season surge of WR1 production on the tail end of their rookie seasons recently, the first name that comes to mind is Amon-Ra St. Brown. The table compares 2023 Rice’s rookie season to St. Brown’s 2021 rookie season.
St. Brown is currently a WR1 and ranked sixth overall and WR5 on DLF. I do not take the comparison above lightly and do not assume that Rice is going to ascend to a dynasty cornerstone like St. Brown. However, Rice broke out a week earlier (week 12 vs. week 13), has better NFL draft capital (second round vs. fourth round), better QB situation (Patrick Mahomes vs. Jared Goff), a better athletic profile, and college production. That starts to paint a good profile.
What makes their screening even more similar is the narrative that will accompany them following their rookie breakouts. After St. Browns rookie season, the dynasty community was still skeptical of St. Brown’s profile. This was even further complicated when the Lions spent the 12th overall pick on Jameson Williams in 2022 (the year after they drafted St. Brown). Please see the graph below, per DLF’s ADP, which summarizes this timeline for St. Brown:
There are two takeaways from this graph. If Rice continues to have these 8-10 targets and > 8 receptions games, his value will continue to climb and become more expensive similar to St. Brown. If you are a believer, buying now before he strings a couple more games of this production together might not be a bad idea.
The other is that there might be a Rice buying period in the offseason. The reason being is the talent surrounding Rice on the Chiefs roster in the WR room. If you have watched the Chiefs in 2023, the WR woes have been evidence since Kadarius Toney in week one performance. If you missed it, somehow the picture below became a game sealing interception:
The Chiefs WR have dropped an astonishing 8% of Mahomes’ passes through week fourteen. For the same period, the next closest NFL team was 5.1% while the league average is below 4%. Clearly illustrating a lack of reliable targets for the Chiefs outside of Rice and Kelce. The Chiefs are clearly going to add depth at the position in the offseason. I would not be surprised if the Chiefs spend first round draft capital on the position. Brett Veach (Chief’s GM) has a history of spending premier draft capital on what many call the premier positions. This includes QB, CB, DE, OT, & WR. This is corroborated by the top six paid players for the 2023 season below:
1. QB: Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson – $52 million
2. DL: Los Angeles Rams’ Aaron Donald – $31.7 million (only outlier to the theory above, but first ballot HOFer)
3. WR: Miami Dolphins’ Tyreek Hill – $30 million
4. DE: Pittsburgh Steelers’ T.J. Watt – $28 million
5. OT: Houston Texans’ Laremy Tunsil – $25 million
6. CB: Green Bay Packers’ Jaire Alexander: $21 million
When you consider these positions in tandem with how the Chiefs have spent their first-round draft capital since Veach was promoted to GM (in 2017 following the draft), the Chiefs have primarily prioritized these premier positions in round one. See the yearly breakdown below:
● 2017: Patrick Mahomes (QB)
● 2018: Pick traded to draft Mahomes (QB)
● 2019: Pick traded for Frank Clark (DE)
● 2020: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB)- Ouch!
● 2021: Pick traded for Orlando Brown (OT)
● 2022: Trent McDuffie (CB)
● 2022: George Karlaftis (DE)
● 2023: Felix Anudike-Uzomah (DE)
Based upon this history and the need at the position, I would not be surprised if the Chiefs spend (or trade) their first-round pick for a WR.
This means that there might be a buying opportunity after the NFL draft as Rice could fall to the third option in the passing attack behind Kelce and the newcomer.
Conclusion
If you could not tell based upon the tone throughout the memo, I believe that Rashee Rice is a buy in dynasty for both contenders and rebuilders, even amidst his breakout. If you apply the stock screener sentiment, he profiles similar a dynasty cornerstone in St. Brown with hints of Deebo Samuel mixed in. That is a player I want on my dynasty rosters, especially if they are 23 years old and linked to Mahomes. If he continues at this pace, he will be much closer to a backend WR1 in dynasty as opposed to WR39 (currently DLF rank). Currently, I see him as a top 18 dynasty WR (high-end WR2).
If you want to try and time the market and buy during the offseason, I will not blame you as I do believe there will be a dip based upon the considerations above with additional target competition being added. However, I am a big believer that “time in the market” is better than “timing the market.” Here are a few trade ideas that I would be willing to send for Rice:
● Jordan Addison: I did this in a league two weeks ago and I would gladly do it again. Addison is having a great rookie reason and I love the player. In fact, I had 100% ownership of him in my leagues at one point. However, I believe by season end the two assets will be valued similarly and you can often get Rice plus something for Addison. For instance, I sent Addison for Rice + an early 2024 second round rookie pick.
● De’Von Achane: Another rookie for rookie? Yup. It is often hard to get a rookie without giving one yourself, especially if they have produced. Achane is currently RB11 on DLF and I would gladly take Rice in exchange. The premise being WR > RB (especially undersized RBs). Similar to Addison above, you might even be able to get a piece on top.
● 2024 Mid First Rounder + 2024 Third Round Rookie Picks: There might be rebuilders in your league that might see this as a win as they only spent a second on Rice. Some people want to get out and reroll. I will take the bird in hand.
“I don’t mind puking. That just means I’m working as hard as a can so that I won’t puke no more and be ready for the games.”
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