Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades
Taking advantage of potential valuation trends in the trade market is imperative. That is even more true during the season when players can experience wild valuation changes on a week-to-week basis. Each week, I will be highlighting some players you should be looking to move or acquire and the reasons why.
Buy – Chase Brown, RB CIN
Last week, I talked about potentially selling Joe Mixon as he could be replaced. Part of that suggestion was a belief in Brown’s talent. However, I did not expect him to become fantasy-relevant this soon. He has now flashed in back-to-back weeks the explosiveness and home run ability that we all covert as dynasty managers. Heading into next season, I see Brown being, at worst, the 1b to either Mixon or a similar type of back. The best scenario would be that he is the 1a, handling around 60% of opportunities but, most importantly, seeing a high volume of work in the receiving game. He will easily pay off his current price if that’s the case. I would happily pay a mid-2024 second-round pick for Brown. However, I don’t think you need to spend that much to acquire him. Realistically, a late second or maybe a couple of third-round picks could be enough to get it done.
Buy – James Cook, RB BUF
There has been a significant change within Buffalo since they changed their offensive playcaller. Under Joe Brady, we have seen a considerable reduction in overall usage for Cook. He has gone from regularly having a 70%+ share to being under 58% over the last four weeks. However, the big difference has been a significant reduction in the volume of rushing work but a large increase in his involvement in the receiving game. While decreasing overall volume isn’t great, increasing high-value touches is always positive. Cook has seen his three highest target share numbers in the last three weeks since week one. That receiving game usage has resulted in three straight RB1 finishes.
If you can acquire off the back of these high-point performances while people are slightly nervous at the reduction in overall volume, you could “buy high” but still get a good deal. Cook can potentially produce far more points if he settles into a similar rushing usage while maintaining the newfound receiving work. He has a great floor as a back-end RB1 and an even higher ceiling than we’ve seen. For a contender, he feels like an ascending asset you could acquire. Pivoting from a player like D’Andre Swift, who is not getting it done, would make a lot of sense. Straight up, I would happily pay a contender’s first to acquire him.
Sell – Joshua Dobbs, QB MIN
Dobbs was a fun story. Anytime a player pops up from obscurity to lead a team to wins and be fantasy-relevant simultaneously, it’s excellent; however, with his mid-game benching, that is now likely over. Some may hold out hope that Dobbs could get a job as a bridge quarterback next year. Still, I believe he is firmly in the priority backup territory alongside Mike White, Jacoby Brissett, and Gardner Minshew, amongst others. His days as a fantasy-relevant player are pretty much finished. If you like rostering backup quarterbacks on the off-chance they see an injury to the starter, then go for it, but I would instead try and sell for whatever I can get right now. If that’s a third-round pick in a superflex league, I’d take that. I think the chances of a random third-round pick carving out a fantasy-relevant role are higher than that of Dobbs.
Sell – Travis Kelce, TE KC
Kelce has been a dynasty mainstay for years. However, the end is coming. Age-related drop-offs are inevitable, and there is a real possibility you’ve already missed your prime sell window earlier this year. However, if you’re not a contender, you have one last chance to ship Kelce off to a contender now for a haul before we hit the off-season. The consensus on Kelce is that he is no longer the dynasty TE1, and with several young studs breaking out this year, there is a genuine possibility that Kelce could fall from the top of the mountain to the TE4-6 range this off-season. If that happens, his price will drop from a mid-first currently to probably a single second-round pick as he is no longer seen as a premium asset and instead an aging win-now piece with a short shelf-life. It may hurt pulling the trigger, and you may instead opt to ride it until the very end with him, but this will likely be your last opportunity to get any significant value in return for the superstar tight end.
Rebuilding Buy – Aaron Rodgers, QB NYJ
This transaction could equally be about Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Joe Burrow, Anthony Richardson, or even Justin Herbert. All these players are currently valued as injured players with a question mark. In three weeks, they will be valued as a starting quarterback. Realistically, Burrow, Richardson, and Herbert are costing you a haul to acquire. However, Cousins, Jones, and Aaron Rodgers are all relatively cheap in this case.
Rodgers is returning next season and will likely have an entire off-season to rehab and build chemistry with the Jets receivers. They will probably spend significant resources this off-season to sure up the offensive line, and there have been rumors about the Jets trading for Davante Adams. Whatever happens, this will be a good situation for Rodgers to produce. He will likely be a one-season rental at best. However, one season of high-end QB2 production for a mid to late second-round pick, which is all you’d have to pay right now, feels like a bargain. The bonus of buying now is that his price will likely increase between now and September when we see him on the field. There are not many dynasty assets you can almost guarantee will increase in value.
I need more information – Quentin Johnston, WR LAC
Johnston has put together the best two-week stretch of his career with 10.2 and 12.1 fantasy points, respectively. He still has significant issues as a route runner and will always have issues with drops. However, he has shown some improvement in gaining separation in the last two weeks. I’m not ready to jump in and look to buy yet. However, if he keeps improving, there could be a small amount of hope that he could have a fantasy-relevant career.
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