Dynasty Fantasy Football Trades
Taking advantage of potential valuation trends in the trade market is imperative. That is even more true during the season when players can experience wild valuation changes on a week-to-week basis. Each week, I will be highlighting some players you should be looking to move or acquire and the reasons why:
Buy – Jordan Love, QB GB
Love’s value has been a rollercoaster this year. After a hot but unsustainable start, he went through a challenging period before recently putting together a fantastic four-game stretch. We’re now in a position where he has played well enough that he will be the Packers’ starting quarterback for at least the medium-term future. Because he signed a short-term extension rather than playing on the fifth-year option, he has a very low $7.75m cap hit next year. This low cap hit will give the Packers a lot of leverage to sign him to a longer-term extension this off-season. Love already showed a reticence to bet on himself last off-season so that he could sign a below-market extension in the Daniel Jones to Geno Smith range of $25m to $40m per year. The second he signs that extension, his dynasty value will increase significantly.
He is currently the QB19 in our November ADP, but I expect that to increase when the December AD is released. He is currently my QB14, but with a long-term extension, he could be knocking on the top 12. If you can use this window of uncertainty about his future to buy high, it will still return on the investment despite buying off the back of solid performances. Currently performing as the QB9, he could be a cornerstone of a contending Superflex roster as your QB2. I would happily pay multiple first-round picks to secure him, but the best move is to pivot off a quarterback like Russell Wilson or Geno Smith, who is producing but aging. You could add a first, buy back years, and increase your long-term production.
Buy – Chuba Hubbard, RB CAR
The Panthers are tough to watch right now. Their offense is not showing many signs of life; however, it is becoming clear it is Hubbard’s backfield. He had a 69.4% opportunity share this last week and produced with it. He will be in the final year of his rookie contract next year, and if the Panther can invest in the offensive line this off-season, he could be a sneaky RB2 with upside next season. For the price of a random second-round pick, I think that is worth taking the risk. Chances are the current Hubbard manager may think they are Selling high on him after this last week, but if he continues to produce down the stretch, he will be worth considerably more next season.
Sell – Joe Mixon, RB CIN
Mixon had a phenomenal performance Monday night, finishing with two touchdowns on 25 touches and 29.7 points in an average league. He was fairly inefficient, averaging 3.6 yards per carry, but that inefficiency isn’t the reason I am concerned. Mixon is under contract for 2024 with an $8.5m cap hit; however, only £2.75m is guaranteed, meaning the Bengals would save $5.75m if they decided to move on from him. That feels like a significant saving for a player who has produced at a fairly replacement level this year. The Bengals are also a team that plans ahead with their draft picks, often drafting a player a year early to fill a need. Last year, they spent a fifth-round pick on Chase Brown, who could be a ready-made replacement for Mixon at a fraction of the cost.
If you’re not a true contender, you need to be selling off Mixon now because his value could plummet in the off-season, and he’d be worth nothing. Now could be a great opportunity to sell off the back of a competent game, and you should be able to grab an early second-round pick from a contender looking for that final piece.
Sell – Derrick Henry, RB TEN
Henry has been a sell in most dynasty circles for what feels like four years at this point. However, as a pending free agent with a replacement already waiting in the wings, Henry will likely be playing his final season with the Titans. A player with Henry’s track record should be able to command a home in free agency. However, he has such a unique running style and is almost non-existent in the passing game that it would require an offense to repurpose what they do and build the running game around Henry. It is unlikely that any team will want to do that for a soon-to-be 30-year-old running back with over 2,000 career touches. I would accept a mid-second-round pick right now, particularly given the fact he is potentially injured and unlikely to play this next week.
Rebuilding Buy – Tank Dell, WR HOU
Anytime a potential superstar gets injured, they immediately become a rebuilding buy. Dell is no exception. He was on the track to be a superstar. Currently the WR19 in points per game as a rookie, he was producing at a level far ahead of what was expected of him. Sadly, a broken leg means his season is now finished, and he will look towards 2024 to continue his breakout. I had Dell in my top 20 dynasty WRs before the injury and expect him to return as soon as we tick over into the off-season. If the team rostering Dell was a contender, you could pounce and buy low to try and help them find a more win-now piece. Veteran WRs like Keenan Allen, Calvin Ridley, Diontae Johnson, Deebo Samuel, or Davante Adams seem logical players to move in a rebuild to acquire Dell.
I need more information – Trey Palmer, WR TB
The Buccaneers’ WR core could be in for some potential change after this season. Mike Evans is a free agent, and while the Buccaneers will likely look to retain the franchise legend, there is a scenario where he opts to move on. If he does Move on, it could open a gap for Palmer. While he hasn’t been fantasy-relevant this year, Palmer has undoubtedly had a solid role. He has played over 50% of the team’s offensive snaps every game since week two and has a 12.2% Target Share and 15% air yard market share. Despite that usage, he has only scored 32.9 points in total (2.7 points per game). So, if he is going to step forward in his sophomore campaign next season, I need to see more from him than just empty snaps. However, there could be a scenario where he can carve out a fantasy-relevant role next season.
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