2023 Dynasty Rookie Early Look: Bijan Robinson, RB Texas
The Texas Longhorns reached the eight-win mark for the first time since 2019. They increased their win total by three in head coach Steve Sarkisian’s second season in Austin before ultimately losing in the Valero Alamo Bowl to the Washington Huskies. At one point, they reached 18th in the AP Poll before ending the regular season ranked 20th.
Quinn Ewers is the favorite to win the quarterback battle next season but struggled in 2022. We all know that the offense revolved around Bijan Robinson. The Heisman candidate finished the season with 20 total touchdowns, more than double any offensive player on the team. The closest teammate in that category was Xavier Worthy, with nine.
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Recruitment
Robinson was rated as a five-star recruit, graduating from Salpointe Catholic high school in Tucson, Arizona. He was straight-up dominant during his sophomore, junior, and senior seasons, racking up 7,261 yards and rushing for over 2,000 yards each season. Robinson also added 106 touchdowns (99 rushing) during that span. 247Sports had him ranked as the best running back in the nation ahead of players like Jaymyr Gibbs and Tank Bigsby. They also had him as the 21st-best prospect.
Courtesy of 247 Sports.
Being ranked as the top rusher in the nation, Robinson received offers from over 20 collegiate programs before ultimately signing with Texas. These offers included powerhouses such as Alabama, USC, Michigan, and Ohio State.
The scouting report on him noted that he is stout with a lean frame, and his weight is well proportioned. Vision, patience, burst, and elusiveness were other adjectives used to describe the all-time touchdown leader in Arizona state history. To no one’s surprise, he was pegged as an NFL first-rounder right from the start.
Collegiate Career
Courtesy of Sports Reference.
The five-star recruit had his coming out party as a freshman in the Alamo Bowl versus Colorado. In that game, Robinson combined for 220 rushing and receiving yards while adding three touchdowns in the blowout, ultimately leading to the dismissal of head coach Tom Herman. Next up was current head coach Steve Sarkisian.
During his freshman season, there was a battle for carries between quarterback Sam Ehlinger, Robinson, QB/RB Roschon Johnson, and Keaontay Ingram, with Ingram ultimately transferring to USC. The star running back did end up second on the team with 86 rushing attempts and led the Longhorns in rushing yards with 703. Robinson ended with an average yard per carry of 8.2 and showed well in the passing game, averaging 13.1 yards per reception.
He managed to take play in ten games his sophomore year and finished with 1,422 yards from scrimmage and 15 total touchdowns. Texas was not bowl eligible, ending the season with a 5-7 record. The highlight of the season for Robinson was his performance against TCU on 10/2/21. In that game, he erupted for 216 yards rushing and two touchdowns. There were an additional 22 yards in the air added for good measure.
The final season in Austin started rather unceremoniously as the future first-rounder rushed for 71 and 57 yards, respectively, in the Longhorns first two games. Granted, the 57 yards came against a stout Alabama defense. Things got better as Robinson went over the century mark in all but one of the remaining games of the 2022 season. There was no bowl game as he opted out to protect himself from injury and focus on the draft. All told, it was a solid final season in Austin for the sure-fire first running back off the board in April.
Athletic Profile
Courtesy of ESPN.
ESPN lists Robinson with a 4.77-second 40-yard dash time. At NFL draft buzz, they have him listed at a 4.49. Either way, speed isn’t his most prominent attribute and should translate at the next level. We will see the actual numbers in his timed speed at the combine.
If he tests closer to the 4.5 range, the company there includes Miles Sanders, D’Andre Swift, and Cam Akers. He will be just fine. Robinson does his damage with size and power and finds cutback lanes as well as anyone.
The former Longhorn excelled in the vertical jump, posting a 36.8-inch leap, ranking near the top of all running backs tested. You can be assured that more hype will be generated at the combine when the genuine numbers trickle in.
Strengths
- All around back with three-down potential.
- He is destructive at the point of attack and always fights for the extra yard.
- Leverages size and strength to his advantage.
- Natural vision to see cutback lanes.
- Physicality and size.
- Above average hands and an ability to consistently pick up pass rushers.
Weaknesses
- Testing numbers will not “wow” you, but it shouldn’t matter.
- At times he can be hesitant at the line of scrimmage.
- There isn’t much not to like about Robinson, but his speed would be one of the knocks. He lacks the ability to run away from the secondary at times.
Draft Value
Courtesy of NFL Mock Draft Database.
On average, Robinson is sitting at a consensus of pick 20 to the Tampa Bay Bucs. He is a consensus first-round pick among the draft community. Some experts have him going as high as 10th to the Eagles and as low as 32nd to that same team. It is hard to imagine him falling that far. He is considered the best running back in the draft; there’s an extremely high chance he will be the first back selected.
Dynasty Outlook
Robinson will be among the top skill players selected in rookie drafts this off-season and will likely be the 1.01 in regular and Superflex drafts. The Texas grad is the consensus number one in the DLF rookie rankings. It’s a battle between him and Jahmyr Gibbs for the top spot in this year’s running back class. Both players are incredibly talented. As always, the landing spot will be the critical factor between the two players.
Courtesy of DLF Rookie Ranks (1QB).
His dynasty value will only increase as the off-season process moves forward. There are no real faults in his game, and there is talk that he could be the highest-drafted running back since Saquon Barkley was selected second overall in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Robinson will contribute instantly regardless of where he lands, making him almost bust-proof (knock on wood). Those with the 1.01 will receive offers until the rookie draft kicks off. Rember to put a name on the pick to properly evaluate what you are getting in return.
Further increasing the value is that his college workload was light in terms of today’s star running backs. Robinson had 25 or more carries in four of 31 collegiate contests and 539 total in three seasons. There is plenty of tread left on the tires.
He graduated from SUNY Alfred State in 2015 with a bachelor's degree in Technology Management. When he is not writing or playing video games, Jeff spends time with his wife Naomi and their Bichon Poo, Daisy.
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